2026-27 college basketball predictions: National title odds, conference winners, sleeper picks

The 2026-27 college basketball season begins Sunday in Rome, Italy, when Notre Dame faces Villanova. The fun continues into Monday with a handful of marquee matchups on the slate, including No. 14 Miami facing No. 1 Florida in Tampa and No. 5 Arizona clashing with old Pac-12 foe No. 22 UCLA in Las Vegas.

Between now and the national championship game in Detroit this spring, there will be plenty of drama and storylines to ponder. Will Florida win its second title in three years with a majority of the core returning? How does reigning national champion Michigan look in the post-Dusty May era? Is this the year Jon Scheyer gets over the hump and wins a national title at his alma mater? Is this Bill Self's final season at Kansas?

Here is what we do know: Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. is the CBS Sports preseason Player of the Year, while Kansas' Tyran Stokes — the projected No. 1 pick in the 2027 NBA Draft — is our preseason Freshman of the Year. Those players headlined CBS Sports' 2026-27 preseason All-American teams, which are full of returning talent.

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With the season on the horizon, here is a quick guide to the 2026-27 college basketball season that includes national title odds, power-conference winners, predictions, long shots, and even some bold predictions for what should be a wide-open National Player of the Year race.

Here are the odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) to win the 2027 national title.

2027 National Title odds

Team	Odds
Duke	+500
Florida	+600
Connecticut	+1200
Illinois	+1400
Arizona	+1600
Michigan State	+2000
Texas	+2200
Texas Tech	+2200
Louisville	+2500
Arkansas	+2500
St. John's	+3000
Virginia	+3000
Houston	+3000
Gonzaga	+3000
Kansas	+3000
Tennessee	+3500
Michigan	+4000
UCLA	+4500
Vanderbilt	+4500
Iowa State	+4500
Kentucky	+4500
Alabama	+4500
Miami	+4500
LSU	+5000
Missouri	+5000
USC	+6500
Nebraska	+6500
Indiana	+6500
Purdue	+6500
BYU	+6500
Texas A&M	+6500
North Carolina	+6500
Baylor	+10000
Maryland	+10000
Ohio State	+10000
Providence	+10000
Auburn	+10000
Saint Louis	+10000
Cincinnati	+10000
Iowa	+10000
Villanova	+10000
Oklahoma	+10000
TCU	+15000
Wisconsin	+15000
Creighton	+15000
Marquette	+15000
Arizona State	+15000
Georgia	+15000
SMU	+15000
Clemson	+15000
NC State	+15000
Xavier	+15000
VCU	+15000
West Virginia	+15000
San Diego State	+20000
Oklahoma State	+20000
Minnesota	+20000
Washington	+20000
Ole Miss	+20000
Florida State	+20000
Oregon	+20000
Georgia Tech	+25000
California	+25000
Georgetown	+25000
Stanford	+25000
UNLV	+25000
Colorado	+25000
South Florida	+25000
Syracuse	+25000
Dayton	+25000
Utah	+25000
DePaul	+25000
Notre Dame	+25000
Santa Clara	+25000
Kansas State	+25000
New Mexico	+25000
Wake Forest	+25000
UCF	+25000
Penn State	+25000
Pittsburgh	+25000
Saint Mary's	+25000
Utah State	+25000
Mississippi State	+25000
Miami (OH)	+25000
Virginia Tech	+25000
Boston College	+25000
Nevada	+25000
South Carolina	+25000
Colorado State	+25000
Memphis	+25000
Butler	+25000
Northwestern	+25000

Why Duke, not Florida, is favored to win the title

Florida has been the consensus favorite, ahead of Duke, to win the national title for several weeks. However, over the last few days, those odds have flipped back in Duke's favor despite Florida getting a majority of the votes in the 2026-26 preseason AP Top 25 poll ahead of Duke.

Duke and Florida are almost by consensus the two best teams in college basketball entering the season. Florida has the nation's best frontcourt, led by Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu and Alex Condon, while Duke has arguably the deepest roster in college basketball and can do 10 or 11 deep on any given night. 

The debate over who the best team in college basketball is will gain a strong data point within a month of the season when Duke faces Florida in the ACC/SEC Challenge on Dec. 1 in Gainesville. A lot can happen between now and then, but the winner of that game will likely be favored the rest of the season to cut down the nets.

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Three title long shots to consider

Last season, Michigan opened with the 13th-best odds (25/1) to win the national title. Important context to note: the odds were set before Michigan officially landed Yaxel Lendeborg. However, it paints the picture that someone outside of the obvious favorites (last year it was Duke, Houston, Louisville, Kansas, and Purdue) can be the final team standing. Here are three value national championship picks/long shots in that range to consider.

• Texas Tech (+2200): If Texas Tech is at full strength, the Red Raiders are one of the 10 best teams in the country. The pending five-for-five cases of Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams and Jamichael Stillwell will determine the ceiling of this roster. If those three players are eligible and JT Toppin comes back, this is a dangerous roster that can make it to Detroit.
• Arkansas (+2500): This is arguably John Calipari's deepest roster since he took over at Arkansas. The Razorbacks lack returning experience — with star wing Billy Richmond III being the lone starter from last season — but Arkansas makes up for it with talent. Jordan Smith Jr. is going to be the latest star freshman guard Calipari coaches. Depth was an issue last season despite having an electric backcourt of Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas. That won't be an issue this season.
• Kansas (+3000): Kansas' outlook seemingly changed overnight because of the additions of Tre White, Melvin Council Jr, and Trey Kaufman-Renn. White and Council have stronger cases for being granted a fifth year of eligibility than Kaufman-Renn, who is seeking a sixth year. Those three veterans, plus projected No. 1 overall pick Tyran Stokes, make this a very interesting roster. It's unclear when Self will call it a career, but this roster gives him a solid chance to make noise and even be a long-shot pick to win the title. 

National Player of the Year odds

Here are the odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) to win the John Wooden Award (NPOTY).

Player	Odds
Jeremy Fears Jr. (Michigan State)	+850
Tyran Stokes (Kansas)	+1100
Tyler Tanner (Vanderbilt)	+1200
Thomas Haugh (Florida)	+1400
Braylon Mullins (UConn)	+1900
Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje (Duke)	+1900
Jordan Smith Jr. (Arkansas)	+2200
David Mirkovic (Illinois)	+2200
Nikola Kusturica (UCLA)	+3000
John Blackwell (Duke)	+3500
Tounde Yessoufou (St. John's)	+3500
Isaiah Johnson (Texas)	+3500
Alex Condon (Florida)	+3500
Ivan Kharchenkov (Arizona)	+3500
Braden Huff (Gonzaga)	+4500
Robert Wright III (BYU)	+4500
Motiejus Krivas (Arizona)	+4500
PJ Haggerty (Texas A&M)	+4500
Matas Vokietaitis (Texas)	+4500
Stefan Vaaks (Illinois)	+4500
Silas Demary Jr. (UConn)	+5000
Caleb Holt (Arizona)	+5000
Moustapha Thiam (Michigan)	+5500
Flory Bidunga (Louisville)	+5500
Milan Momcilovic (Kentucky)	+5500
Elliot Cadeau (Michigan)	+5500
Pryce Sandfort (Nebraska)	+5500
Jackson Shelstad (Louisville)	+5500
Trey McKenney (Michigan)	+5500

The pick: Thomas Haugh, Florida

Haugh was my personal pick (and vote) to win NPOTY. I also had Haugh at No. 1 in my Top 100 And 1 player ballot that was submitted earlier this month. To me, Haugh is the best returning player in college basketball. He's going to be the best player on the best team in the sport, which carries weight. 

Haugh had a breakout season last year after going from a key reserve on Florida's title team to being in the SEC POTY race with Acuff. This year, Haugh will not only win SEC Player of the Year, but National Player of the Year, too. Haugh is the ultimate Swiss Army Knife who can shoot, pass, rebound and defend at the college level. Even on a loaded Florida roster, he is going to be the guy. Odds: +1400

Value pick: Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, Duke

If I had to make a wild-card pick for who will win NPOTY, it would be Boumtje Boumtje, who is just 17 years old entering the season. Boumtje Boumtje is ineligible for the 2027 NBA Draft due to the league's age requirement, which means college basketball fans will see him for at least two seasons. 

Boumtje Boumtje is going to be one of the most impactful two-way players in college basketball. He is an elite defender who can also stretch the floor at a high level. His shot also looks very clean mechanically for a 7-foot-2 freshman. Even though Duke will have several players in the mix for the award this season, Boumtje Boumtje is the one with the best chance of winning it. Odds: +1900

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Odds to win the ACC regular-season title

CBS Sports' full ACC preview can be found here. Here are the odds to win the regular-season conference title. All conference odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Team	Odds
Duke	-136
Louisville	+425
Virginia	+590
Miami	+770
Virginia Tech	+2600
Clemson	+3000
North Carolina	+3500
NC State	+5800
SMU	+8400
Syracuse	+14000
Florida State	+20000
Wake Forest	+23000
Stanford	+23000
Notre Dame	+32000
Pittsburgh	+45000
Georgia Tech	+50000
California	+50000
Boston College	+50000

The pick: Duke

Duke should be the heavy favorite to win the ACC this season. This is Scheyer's deepest team since taking over at his alma mater. The Blue Devils might not have a player on the roster (yet) of Cooper Flagg or Cameron Boozer's caliber, but the depth on the team will allow Scheyer to go 10-deep on any given night. Conference play is always a grind, so having multiple players off the bench you can rely on gives Duke the edge to run away with the ACC regular-season title. Spoiler alert: Duke is also my pick to win the national title. Odds: -136

Value pick: Miami

Again, I don't see anybody other than Duke winning the league this season, but a value pick to consider is Miami. Year 1 of the Jai Lucas era at Miami was promising, but this year is shaping up to be even better with a more talented roster. Acaden Lewis was a star at Villanova, but he will take an even bigger jump at Miami. The same can be said about Shelton Henderson, who is one of the best returners in the sport. Miami's case to win the ACC hinges on Malik Reneau being granted a fifth year. If that happens, watch out for the U. Odds: +770

Odds to win the Big East regular-season title

CBS Sports' Big East preview can be found here. Here are the odds to win the regular-season conference title.

Team	Odds
UConn	+138
St. Johns	+270
Marquette	+640
Villanova	+690
Creighton	+1250
Providence	+1800
Xavier	+3500
DePaul	+5100
Seton Hall	+10000
Georgetown	+11000
Butler	+28000

The pick: UConn

UConn has reached the Final Four three of the last four seasons and has a roster capable of reaching the final weekend of the college basketball season once again. It all starts with the backcourt of Braylon Mullins and Silas Demary Jr., which will be among the sport's best this season. Throw in transfers Nikolas Khamenia (Duke) and Na'Jai Hines (Seton Hall), and you have a roster that is rightfully the favorite to win the Big East. When in doubt, trust Dan Hurley. Odds: +138

Value pick: St. John's

To me, the Big East is a two-horse race this season between UConn and St. John's. And although St. John's — the team picked to finish second in the league — isn't exactly a "value pick," this version of Rick Pitino's squad will be hard to beat this season. Quinn Ellis is one of the best international players to come over to the college ranks in some time. Tounde Yessoufou was a borderline first-round pick who returned to school. Keyshawn Hall will be one of the best returning forwards if he's ruled eligible to play. St. John's has the talent and the coaching to win the Big East again. Odds: +270

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Odds to win the Big 12 regular-season title

CBS Sports' Big 12 preview can be found here. Here are the odds to win the regular-season conference title.

Team	Odds
Arizona	+215
Kansas	+350
Houston	+350
Iowa State	+550
Texas Tech	+840
BYU	+2600
Cincinnati	+2900
Baylor	+3100
TCU	+4800
West Virginia	+6200
Oklahoma State	+7000
UCF	+17500
Arizona State	+29000
Utah	+50000
Kansas State	+50000
Colorado	+50000

The pick: Arizona

You can count on one hand how many teams in college basketball have a better trio than Arizona. Caleb Holt, Ivan Kharchenkov, and Motiejus Krivas all complement each other super well as two-way impact players. Arizona's lone weakness on the roster is the four-spot, which would be solved if Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey is granted a fifth year. If Godfrey is eligible, Arizona should be the favorite to win the Big 12. The addition of North Carolina transfer Derek Dixon is also flying under the radar. He should help increase Arizona's 3-point shooting by volume, which ranked last in the conference last season. Odds: +215

Value pick: Texas Tech

The same reasoning I gave for Texas Tech as a long-shot to win the title also applies here. This is going to come down to health and eligibility. If JT Toppin is back around conference play, the ceiling of this Texas Tech roster is completely different. Toppin might be flying somewhat under the radar because of the torn ACL he suffered in February, but when/if he's healthy, there's a strong argument he's the best player in the country. Odds: +840

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Odds to win the Big Ten regular-season title

CBS Sports' Big Ten preview can be found here. Here are the odds to win the regular-season conference title.

Team	Odds
Illinois	+144
Michigan State	+465
Nebraska	+730
Michigan	+870
UCLA	+1150
Ohio State	+1300
Purdue	+1475
USC	+2600
Indiana	+2700
Maryland	+4500
Wisconsin	+4800
Iowa	+6000
Minnesota	+9200
Oregon	+9800
Washington	+27000
Rutgers	+32000
Penn State	+50000
Northwestern	+50000

The pick: Illinois

The two top contenders in the Big Ten are Illinois and Michigan State. The main reason? Retention. Both programs return over 65% of their scoring from last season. David Mirković, Andrej Stojaković, Zvonimir Ivišić and Jake Davis are back as key returners for Illinois, while Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks and five-star guard Quentin Coleman project as the most impactful newcomers on the roster. Illinois will be the team to beat in a loaded Big Ten. Odds: +144

Value pick: USC

The team that's flying under the radar this season in the Big Ten is USC. This is by far Eric Musselman's most talented roster since he took over the program in 2024. Led by key returners Rodney Rice, Alijah Arenas and Jacob Cofie and an elite crop of newcomers headlined by Georgetown transfer KJ Lewis and five-star center Christian Collins, the Trojans are a dark horse to win the conference based on talent alone. USC should be considered a lock to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time in Musselman's tenure at USC this season. Odds: +2600

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Odds to win the SEC regular-season title

CBS Sports' SEC preview can be found here. Here are the odds to win the regular-season conference title.

Team	Odds
Florida	+112
Alabama	+630
Texas	+850
Tennessee	+930
Arkansas	+1250
Vanderbilt	+1475
Kentucky	+1950
Auburn	+2450
Oklahoma	+2900
Texas A&M	+3100
Georgia	+3300
LSU	+5000
Missouri	+6500
Ole Miss	+7600
Mississippi State	+22500
South Carolina	+50000

The pick: Florida

There's a reason why Florida is the consensus favorite to win the SEC this season. The Gators' frontline of Haugh, Chinyelu and Condon is the best in the country. Florida has a way of wearing down opponents over the course of a game with its size. However, it's the guards I'm keeping an eye on that could be the real separator. Does Boogie Fland take a jump in his second season with the program? Will Denzel Aberdeen not only be eligible, but make a significant impact as Florida's starting two-guard after a career year at Kentucky? Will Urban Klavzar win SEC Sixth Man of the Year again? Those questions will define how far this team can go in March. Odds: +112

Value pick: Arkansas

Arkansas won the SEC Tournament title last season behind Acuff, who departed as arguably the best one-and-done guard Calipari has coached throughout his career. The Razorbacks are not only a sleeper team to win the SEC but also to win the national title. Arkansas certainly doesn't lack talent, but the way Calipari's team develops into 2027 — despite the inexperience on the roster — will make or break what this team can do this season. Smith is the alpha on the roster, but some of his classmates, such as Davion Thompson, JJ Andrews, Abdou Toure and Miikka Muurinen have serious potential to be first-round picks in 2027. Odds: +1250