Daily briefing: Trump administration appeals to court in California ballots stoush

Hello! Welcome back to the US midterms daily briefing. 

Today is the big day! Americans will head to the polls to vote for the next US House of Representatives and US Senate. 

We'll launch our live coverage of the elections later today, but in the meantime, let's dive into what happened overnight.

Click here to see how popular Trump is today, and click here for a quick breakdown on what the midterms are all about.

Here's what you need to know today

• Final midterm pitches: Politicians across the country are finishing their push for voters on the eve of election day. Trump ditched the campaign trail and gave a speech in Washington, DC. Standing in front of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, he announced he was officially reopening the monument and joked that he wanted to name it after himself. Meanwhile, Democratic candidates are hoping to capitalise on frustrations over the cost of living and the Iran war.  
• California ballot stoush: I mentioned yesterday that the Trump administration has said California may have thousands of non-citizens on its voter rolls. A federal judge tossed a Department of Justice (DOJ) request to block the counting of more than 20,000 on those grounds. Now, the DOJ has filed an emergency request with the Supreme Court of the US (SCOTUS), asking it to take up the matter. If SCOTUS decides to overrule the lower courts' decisions, the federal government's role in elections (usually state matters) could change radically.
• What the polls say: Election forecasters are publishing their final midterm race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball has made calls on every race, and predicts a 239-196 Democratic House and a 53-47 Democratic Senate.  The Silver Bulletin tips a 241-194 Democratic House and 53-47 Democratic Senate, and FiftyPlusOne puts Democrats at a strong likelihood to claim both chambers. 

Let's dive deeper

North America correspondent Lauren Day is in Michigan this week. It's one of a handful of states tipped to decide who will end up with a Senate majority. I messaged with her about what issues voters are weighing ahead of casting their ballots. 

You're in Detroit, known as "Motor City", the heart of America's car-making industry. What's a common thread you heard from voters there?

Lauren Day

The common thread everywhere I’ve been in this election cycle is really the increasing cost of living and the Trump administration policies people are blaming that on: tariffs and the Iran war. Here in Detroit, it's even worse, though. The car-making industry has been really impacted by the tariffs. Everyone drives, so the price of fuel is causing a lot of pain. The average income in Michigan is significantly lower than the national average, and it's right on the border with Canada, so that trade war has really upset people. I went to an auto repair shop today, and the owner said a lot of people were really struggling to make ends meet, but he has no choice but to put prices up.

There has been a bit of infighting among Democrats in Michigan this week, too. What's the latest?

Lauren Day

It's been a wild weekend here in Detroit after Haley Stevens — who lost the primary to Abdul El-Sayed back in August — made a shock endorsement of Republican candidate Mike Rogers. Some people think it might actually boost support for El-Sayed but others are quite worried that this could, at best, distract and, at worst, derail the Democrats in this crucial Senate race. The feud centred around El-Sayed's criticism of Israel, of which Stevens is a staunch supporter. It's also exposed a wider rift within the Democratic Party over its policies on Israel, which will no doubt continue to be a major issue beyond the midterms and into the 2028 presidential race (yes we're already thinking about the next election before this one is even over).

Want to hear more from Lauren? She spoke about Stevens's surprise endorsement here and about former president Barack Obama campaigning for El-Sayed here.

How popular is Donald Trump today?

US President Donald Trump might not be up for election at the midterms, but his popularity will strongly influence the outcome. 

The president's party almost always loses House seats in midterm elections, and that trend gets steeper when the president is unpopular. 

Historic polling data collated by analytics firm Gallup shows presidents with approval ratings below 50 per cent have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats. 

Presidents with approval ratings above 50 per cent have netted smaller losses, with an average of 14 seats. 

Your crash course on the midterms

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And here's how to stay up to date

You can keep track of the latest out of the US here.

Thanks for joining me! I'll be back at the same time tomorrow with more.