Bolsonaro leads Lula as nail-biter Brazil vote goes to a run-off

Brazilian senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the far-right former leader Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s election, which will go to a run-off in three weeks.

In a surprise result that defied opinion poll projections showing Lula in the lead, Flavio Bolsonaro scored 47% of the vote to the incumbent’s 45%.

If Bolsonaro triumphs in the Oct 25 election, Brazil will be the latest country to swing to the right in Latin America, a trend championed by US president Donald Trump.

The election results included a series of landslide wins for the right in parliament in a massive setback to Lula, who at almost 81 is seeking a fourth term in office to cement his legacy.

The veteran leftist branded the vote a battle between democracy and “barbarism,” warning voters that Brazil’s sovereignty was at stake in the face of US pressure.

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, was little known nationally before his jailed father anointed him as his political heir, and he had never expressed ambition to follow in his footsteps.

However, his father’s powerful name won over the country’s conservative base and he slid past Lula despite a campaign marked by scandals and mudslinging.

Voters in the deeply polarized nation were left jaded by familiar choices, and few voted with conviction.

Oscarina de Oliveira, a 62-year-old caregiver, told AFP she had planned to vote for Lula, as she always has. But “when I got there, I switched to Bolsonaro. Just to see what happens, to see if anything changes.”

Bolsonaro dynasty

It emerged during the campaign that Flavio Bolsonaro was under investigation for corruption over the financing of the biopic “Dark Horse” about his father.

The move was bankrolled by jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is under investigation for a massive financial scandal.

For many voters, this did little to move the needle.

“Things are truly terrible. As far as I’m concerned, the left just doesn’t work anymore,” said tech worker Joao Batista, 36, in the Rocinha favela, saying he was fed up with the “horrible” expense of basic goods.

The Vorcaro probe also led to a rare public clash on the Supreme Court which fuelled distrust in institutions and was seen by experts as damaging to Lula’s campaign.

The elections proved a triumphant comeback for the Bolsonaro family after Jair Bolsonaro lost a re-election bid in 2022, leading to violent riots in the capital and his conviction last year for attempting a coup.

Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and another one of Jair Bolsonaro’s sons, Carlos Bolsonaro, both secured seats in the senate.

Jair Bolsonaro’s youngest son Jair Renan, 28, was elected as a federal lawmaker.

Trump watching

Trump had said he was watching the election “very closely,” but did not endorse Flavio Bolsonaro.

The US president has wielded tariffs and sanctions to pressure Brasilia over complaints ranging from the trial against his ally Jair Bolsonaro to alleged unfair trade practices.

Lula repeatedly warned him not to “meddle” in the elections.

He also vowed Brazil would retain control over the development of its vast reserves of rare earths, which have attracted interest from Washington and other foreign powers.

“I support Lula because he stands up for the poor. Flavio will sell our Brazil off to foreigners,” said Victor Jorge Martins, a 25-year-old event planner.

Flavio Bolsonaro has pitched Brazil as a “solution” to ease US dependence on China for these critical minerals.

Climate change absent

Revered for social welfare programmes that lifted millions out of poverty, Lula made a dramatic comeback to office in the 2022 elections after being jailed on a corruption conviction that was later thrown out on procedural grounds.

In his third term he oversaw a drop in inflation and unemployment, but voters complain about a high cost of living.

Lula has also sharply curbed deforestation in the Amazon, while backing oil exploration.

Despite a growing number of extreme weather events in Brazil, climate change has been absent from the campaign.

“It is important to elect a candidate who defends our territory, who defends nature,” said Tainara da Costa Cruz, 22, who lives along the banks of the Rio Negro in Amazonas state and voted for Lula.

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