INTERVIEW: Godongwana says coveted investment-grade status is now ‘within reach’

South Africa is on the road back to investment grade rating status and could rejoin that elite club of creditworthy economies by 2028, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana told Daily Maverick in an interview on Thursday.

“It’s within reach, and I think by 2028 we will have reached that goal... my prayer is to see more upgrades before 2028,” the minister said the day after he presented the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), which underlined the dynamic duo of rising tax revenues and falling debt – a remarkable turnaround for an economy that plunged into the abyss of junk status a decade ago.

“We think on our side that we have been ticking all of the right boxes. We have managed to focus on our costs religiously and have been able to deliver the outcomes that we have set for ourselves.”

All three major credit ratings agencies have South Africa two notches below coveted investment-grade status. Since last year’s MTBPS, S&P Global and Fitch both raised South Africa’s rating a notch, while Moody’s altered its outlook on the country to positive from stable.

Such upgrades are not just academic exercises. A signal of investor confidence in an economy and its ability to repay its debt, they yield lower borrowing costs, freeing up capital for government services.

Market moves

Markets certainly welcomed this version of the MTBPS. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond fell 20 basis points to 8.72% – a big thumbs up.

By revealing contrast, Mexico’s 10-year bond yield is around 9.30% – and Mexico has an investment-grade rating.

Ratings adjustments are really a lagging indicator, and the spoor of the markets points to an upgrade.

Asked if he thought he would still be finance minister in 2028 – to be there to realise his investment-grade goal – Godongwana paused to reflect and then replied in his deliberate manner.

“[You’re asking about] 2028? It will depend on a number of permutations. I’m old. I’m turning 70 next year. Whether I’ve got the stamina to go and whether the president wants me to continue – all of those permutations I cannot tell you now,” he said.

One thing is certain: if and when South Africa gets its investment-grade groove back, much of the credit will belong to the Treasury team – an island of government competence – and to Godongwana, whether or not he is still finance minister at that time. DM