Good news for Social Security beneficiaries? 2027 COLA could see a 3.5%-3.6% increase, groups estimate

Social Security beneficiaries could see a 3.5 per cent-3.6 per cent COLA increase in 2027, with estimates varying among analysts and groups. The official adjustment will depend on September inflation data, with the Social Security Administration expected to announce it in October.

Millions of Americans who rely on Social Security payments can likely expect an increase in their monthly benefits in 2027, as the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) could be around 3.5 per cent to 3.6 per cent, potentially making it the highest in three years.

CNBC reported the new estimate on Friday (local time), citing Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. Johnson said the 2027 Social Security COLA may be 3.5 per cent, factoring in the latest consumer price index (CPI) data released on Friday. She added that how the estimated COLA changes will depend on volatile oil prices, which have had a significant impact on inflation since the US-Iran war began in late February.

Earlier in August, Johnson estimated the COLA may be 3.4 per cent.

How much could monthly benefits increase? Here's what the groups project

In contrast, the Senior Citizens League has lowered its projected Social Security COLA for 2027 to 3.5 per cent, compared with the 3.6 per cent estimate it made last month. According to the nonpartisan group's latest projection, average monthly benefit checks will see an increase of roughly $67.90.

Meanwhile, AARP has raised its 2027 COLA forecast to 3.6 per cent, up from its previous estimate of 3.5 per cent in August. The increase would add roughly $75 a month to the average retired worker’s benefit, according to the organisation.

In 2026, approximately 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) beneficiaries received a 2.8 per cent increase in their benefits.

2027 estimates vs past increases

Over the past decade, the Social Security COLA has ranged from zero per cent in 2016 to 8.7 per cent in 2023, marking the highest increase in four decades because of factors such as rising inflation. According to the Social Security Administration, the COLA has averaged roughly 3.1 per cent over the past decade.

When to expect COLA news?

According to the report, the official Social Security COLA for the coming year will be determined after another month of government inflation data is released. The Social Security Administration generally announces the COLA for the following year in October. It is determined by the percentage increase in third-quarter inflation data from the previous year to the current year.

The calculation is based on a specific measure of inflation called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The CPI-W rose 3.5 per cent over the 12 months through August, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.

Meanwhile, the broader Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.4 per cent over the same period, reflecting higher prices for goods and services.

The focus will now be on the September inflation data, as millions of retirees await clarity on their monthly benefits.

About the Author

Swati Gandhi is a digital journalist with over four years of experience, specialising in international and geopolitical issues. Her work focuses on foreign policy, global power shifts, and the political and economic forces shaping international relations, with a particular emphasis on how global developments affect India. She approaches journalism with a strong belief in context-driven reporting, aiming to break down complex global events into clear, accessible narratives for a wide readership.<br><br> Previously, Swati has worked at Business Standard, where she covered a range of beats including national affairs, politics, and business. This diverse newsroom experience helped her build a strong grounding in reporting, while also strengthening her ability to work across both breaking news and in-depth explanatory stories. Covering multiple beats early in her career has helped her be informed about her current work, allowing her to connect domestic developments with wider international trends.<br><br> At Live Mint, she focuses on international and geopolitical issues through a business and economic lens, examining how global political developments, foreign policy decisions, and power shifts impact markets, industries, and India’s strategic and economic interests.<br><br> She holds a Bachelor’s degree in English (Honours) from the University of Delhi and a Master’s degree in Journalism and Mass Communication from Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University. Her academic training has shaped her emphasis on precision, analytical rigour, and clarity in writing. Her interests include global political economy and the intersection of geopolitics with business.<br><br> Outside work, Swati focuses on exploring her passion and love for food. From fancy cafes to street spots, Swati explores food like a true foodie.

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