U.S. sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely next year despite 2027 timeline, sources say

Chinese President Xi Jinping walks past members of the Chinese People's Liberation Army as he arrives for a ceremony to mark Martyrs' Day, on Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Sept. 30. | Reuters

Oct 1, 2026

WASHINGTON – U.S. officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s instructions for his military to be ready by 2027 to take the democratically governed island by force, if needed, people familiar with U.S. thinking said.

The main reasons include delays in military readiness amid the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign as well as Beijing’s eagerness to see the results of Taiwan’s 2028 election, which some Chinese officials hope could usher in a government more amenable to bringing the island under Chinese control, according to two current U.S. officials, one former U.S. official and a person familiar with the matter.

Beijing may increasingly look to use force in 2028 and beyond if Taiwan’s election sees the Democratic Progressive Party win a fourth consecutive term, and in particular if current President Lai Ching-te wins reelection, the people added.

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