Trump faces midterm verdict as Democrats close in on US Congress

A month before the US midterms, Democrats are eyeing control of Congress — and the power to put President Donald Trump on the defensive for the rest of his term by investigating his administration and stalling his agenda.

The November 3 vote is shaping up as a verdict on one of the most turbulent presidencies in US history — and, by several measures, Trump goes into it less popular than any predecessor facing midterms in modern polling.

Americans will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators, alongside governors in 36 states. The election decides who controls the legislature – which passes laws, sets the budget and polices the White House.

Forecaster Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 75% chance of winning the House, projecting a 234-201 majority. It rates the Senate a near coin flip, with Democrats narrowly favoured to take it 51-49.

Control of the House alone would hand Democrats powerful committees and subpoena authority.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has vowed to “hold the crooks accountable” and says that, in the majority, his party would move to reverse Trump’s tariffs, end US involvement in the Iran war and restore health insurance subsidies.

He has left the door open to a third Trump impeachment.

A Senate win would go further, letting Democrats block Trump’s judicial and cabinet nominees.

Economic pain

Trump has chosen to make the election about his record – a risky bet given polling showing his approval rating in the mid-to-low 30s, the lowest of his political career, with just 17%backing his handling of the cost of living.

A Wall Street Journal survey found no president heading into the midterms had polled worse in its surveys dating to 1990.

Trump returned to power promising to tame inflation, which now stands at 3.4% – higher than when he took office.

The conflict in the Middle East, now in its eighth month, has pushed gasoline above US$4 a gallon. Only around a third of Americans approve of the strikes on Iran.

Republican Senate candidates in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio have publicly urged Trump to end the war.

And a sitting Republican senator called for investigations after the president’s eldest son received a lavish wedding gift from a Kremlin-linked Russian businessman – one of a string of Trump ethics controversies Democrats have folded into their pitch on affordability.

“The midterms could go down as one of the greatest self-inflicted political wounds in history,” said political analyst and former Senate aide Andrew Koneschusky.

“From the impact of tariffs to the Iran war, so much of the economic pain the American people are feeling, and the political pain Donald Trump’s party will likely feel in November, was entirely avoidable.”

Republican firepower

Yet the formidable cash advantage held by Republicans means a Democratic sweep is not certain.

Trump’s MAGA Inc super PAC entered September with US$416 million in the bank, and Republican groups are outspending Democrats on the airwaves in several key Senate races.

House Speaker Mike Johnson is touring more than 40 districts in the final stretch, offering voters what he calls “a clear choice between common sense and Democrats’ crazy.”

Congressional maps redrawn to protect incumbents have sharply cut the number of competitive seats, capping how far a historic wave of discontent can translate into seats.

A gain of around 19 House seats would fall short of the 27-seat average midterm loss for a president’s party over the past 90 years. It would be less than half the 40 seats Republicans lost in 2018, during Trump’s first term.

Still, the battlefield has widened since the summer. Democrats are now competitive in Senate races in Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska – states Trump won by double digits in 2024.

For Trump, barred from seeking a third term, the midterms come just as the fight over his legacy, and over who inherits his movement in 2028, begins in earnest.

“A strong Republican showing would reinforce the argument that Trump permanently reshaped American politics,” political analyst Michael Fahey told AFP.

“Significant Republican losses would raise a very different historical question: Was Trump building a lasting political movement, or was Trump himself the movement?”

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