How college basketball's top eligibility battles shape the outlooks for 2026-27 contenders (or pretenders)

LSU basketball plays an exhibition game in less than three weeks against McNeese, and coach Will Wade still has no earthly idea if he can field a team. College basketball's first official practice is Monday, and potential starters are still in limbo about if they'll actually be able to play.

That's the insanity at play with college basketball rosters right now.

The NCAA has held stedfast that it will not release a blanket waiver to the hundreds of seniors who are suing for a fifth year of eligibility in the wake of the new five-for-five eligibility model. The NCAA has racked up numerous legal victories in recent weeks, too. The Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals granted the NCAA a stay to overrule a Colorado judge's ruling that granted a blanket fifth year of eligibility to the entire Class of 2022. 

Numerous state-by-state cases have popped up with athletes seeking temporary restraining orders and preliminary injunctions to block the transfer portal rules and gain another year of eligibility. Slowly but surely, the NCAA has racked up stays in Ohio and Georgia, essentially throwing a roadblock into the paths back to college basketball for numerous real-deal difference-makers, while the slow-moving appeals process runs its course.

All eyes are on the preliminary injunction hearings that are on the docket in the next couple weeks. We're rapidly approaching the grim reality that some fifth-year seniors will be eligible while others aren't due to the allegiances of a local judge. 

It will shape college basketball's contenders (or pretenders) this season.

Let's dive in.

The Iowa State-Tamin Lipsey fallout

Tamin Lipsey is Iowa State basketball, and the four-year starter is chasing a fifth year of eligibility after going undrafted in the 2026 NBA Draft. Lipsey agreed to an Exhibit 10 contract with the Indiana Pacers, but the deal was not executed, eliminating one round of red tape to return to college basketball.

There's a way to go here in the world of temporary restraining orders, preliminary injunctions and appeals, so let's focus on the on-court impact.

Without Lipsey, Iowa State looks like a rock-solid Top 25 club. The defense projects to be outstanding — think top-five in the country — after T.J. Otzelberger landed a sneaky-strong portal class that is loaded with plus defenders, headlined by ex-Bradley point guard Jaquan Johnson and Northern Iowa transfer Leon Bond III, who were two of the best defensive players in the Missouri Valley last season. Returning center Blake Buchanan and Northwestern transfer forward Tre Singleton are expected to form a plus defensive frontcourt for the Cyclones, too.

But a preseason shoulder injury to sophomore breakout candidate Killyan Toure — another venomous defender — has illustrated Iowa State's need for another guard.

Insert Lipsey. The tough, smart, hard-playing veteran averaged 13.3 points, 5.1 assists, 3.9 rebounds and 2.3 steals this past season. He profiles as one of the top ball-hawking defenders in the Big 12, and he posted an immaculate 3.3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Iowa State is losing the brilliant Joshua Jefferson (to the NBA) and Milan Momcilovic (to moneybags Kentucky), so the offense was already slated to drop back down to earth after rating 21st nationally in efficiency a season ago.

With Lipsey, Iowa State's creation questions disappear. Shot-making sophomore guard Jamarion Batemon would be grinning from ear to ear if Lipsey was back in the mix to create open shots. Iowa State doesn't have a fulcrum like Jefferson or the shot-making from Momcilovic to be a top-30 offense this season, but Lipsey's presence would give this offense a boost to be more than competent.

A trio of Lipsey, Johnson and Toure, when healthy, would also be one of the top defensive backcourts in all of college basketball. 

Iowa State would firmly rank inside the top-15 nationally with Lipsey in the fold. Without him, the Cyclones project closer to the 22-to-25 range nationally.

Texas A&M's roster reshuffle

Bucky McMillan is doing some moving and shaking in the final hours. G-League sharpshooter Bryson Warren is out of the mix after the SEC's head honchos made it clear they won't clear players like Warren who signed Exhibit 10 deals. 

That's a big loss for a player projected to lead the SEC in 3-point shooting in this Texas A&M triples-happy scheme.

But Texas A&M has irons in the fire, specifically with Texas transfer Jordan Pope (13.1 points, 37% from 3-point range) and the return of 6-foot-5 shooting guard Rylan Griffen (11.2 points, 40% from downtown). 

Both Pope and Griffen have preliminary injunction hearings scheduled for late September, and that could change the complexion of an Aggies' roster that already looks like a top-25 team. With that duo in the fold, McMillan would have ridiculous depth up and down the lineup.

• Point guards: Jalen Reece, Tyshawn Archie, Neiko Mundey
• Combo guards: PJ Haggerty, Jordan Pope, Jeremiah Green
• Shooting guards: Rylan Griffen, Lukas Walls
• Wings/Forwards: Mackenzie Mgbako, Jalen Shelley, Zach Clemence
• Bigs: Cade Phillips, Jamie Vinson, Josh Irving

McMillan loves to weaponize his depth, using fullcourt pressure and a barrage of rack attacks to wear down the opposition over 40 minutes. With Pope and Griffen, this is a team that could easily go 10 deep on any given night with high-major starters operating in the second unit.

The Aggies would be in my top 25 if they get Pope and Griffen cleared. That offense could be a smash with this talent operating under McMillan on the sticks.

(We don't have to talk about the defense at this time.)

Make-or-break time for St. John's 

It's Sept. 17, and St. John's still doesn't know if its starting point guard or starting forward will be eligible. Oh, and two more rotation players.

It's madness.

EuroLeague point guard Quinn Ellis has still not been cleared by the NCAA, after new, stricter guidelines for clearance on international players were initiated this spring … after numerous high-major programs had gone through the recruiting process.

It's backwards and wildly on brand for the always-reactive, rarely-proactive NCAA. 

Many squads are implicated by this, but St. John's is at the epicenter of the stall-ball on the international front. Ellis, 23, is slated to be one of the top point guards in the Big East and potentially the rest of the country. If you could be an effective EuroLeague starter, you'll be an effective Big East starter. Babacar Sane is another 22-year-old international prospect who could start or operate as the sixth man for Rick Pitino. The 6-foot-8 athletic wing played in Germany's top professional league, but he was ruled ineligible by the NCAA, partially because he signed an Exhibit 10 deal with the Utah Jazz in 2024. Sane has scheduled an Oct. 1 hearing to appeal the ruling.

Plus, there's plenty of uncertainty on the five-in-five front. St. John's scooped up Auburn transfer Keyshawn Hall and Indiana transfer Reed Bailey in that market. Hall is currently ineligible; Bailey is currently eligible. But the NCAA has reiterated that it plans to appeal each state case that currently grants eligibility to fifth-year seniors. It may only be a matter of time until Bailey's case in California is appealed.

Which leaves St. John's in a lurch.

What does this roster look like without Ellis, Sane, Bailey and Hall? Returning guard Ian Jackson and prized Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou are going to put up big-time numbers, and junior big man Ruben Prey is an easy-to-like breakout candidate, but after that, it gets murky in a hurry. The Johnnies' starting point guard would be Columbia transfer Avery Brown, who averaged 4.3 points per game last year. 

It's frankly impossible to have a real discussion on St. John's outlook in 2026-27 until there's a final word on Ellis, Sane, Hall and Bailey. It's not hyperbole to say that St. John's is a National Championship hopeful with that quartet and a fringe NCAA Tournament team without 'em. 

That's an exhilarating (and petrifying) range of potential outcomes.

Miami's final piece

Jai Lucas did standout work this spring, reeling in a prized transfer portal haul headlined by Villanova transfer point guard Acaden Lewis and bruising Georgia center Somto Cyril. But the Hurricanes are still sniffing around a potential reunion with Malik Reneau, who averaged 18.9 points and 6.5 rebounds for Lucas last season. Kansas has also expressed interest in Reneau, according to court documents filed in Indiana earlier this month, but that's a major floor-raising move for Miami if Reneau can get cleared.

This is what Miami's starting lineup would look like:

• PG Acaden Lewis: Top-25 transfer
• CG Dante Allen: Former top-35 recruit
• SF Shelton Henderson: 13.8 points, 4.9 rebounds in 2025-26
• PF Malik Reneau: 18.9 points, 6.5 rebounds
• C Somto Cyril: Top-25 transfer

That's a ball-club right there. Lewis and Reneau would give Lucas an inside-out scoring punch that's as good as anybody in the ACC. Cyril profiles as a potential elite two-way big man. Henderson is a two-way wing with serious NBA upside. Allen is an outstanding connective piece who plays defense, can operate on the ball, can knock down 3s and knows how to play with great players, dating back to his time in high school with Cameron Boozer. The defense would profile to be elite, and Reneau would shore up some of the halfcourt offensive questions. 

Top-10 Miami? Firmly in the range of potential outcomes if Reneau is back in the fold.

Quick hitters

• No high-major league has more on the line in the judicial system than the Big 12. There are 16 potential fifth-year seniors who are looking to return to a Big 12 roster, if cleared. Sixteen! That's the most of any high-major league by a wide margin (the SEC is second with 12 five-in-five hopefuls). 

• BYU looks like a top-10 offense and a legit Big 12 contender if Michigan State transfer forward Jaxon Kohler is eligible for the entire 2026-27 season. 
• Arizona is a plug-and-play, top-five team in America if Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey is eligible. 
• Texas Tech will have the No. 1 offense in America if it can trot out a lineup of Cruz Davis, Donovan Atwell (needs an injunction), Darrion Williams (needs an injunction), Jamichael Stillwell (needs an injunction) and JT Toppin (recovering from torn ACL). Williams' court case is scheduled for Sept. 21, Atwell's is Oct. 15 and Stillwell's is up in the air. Just like Texas Tech's fate as a Final Four contender.
• Keep a close eye on Kansas in the coming weeks. KU has Tyran Stokes, the leading candidate to be the No. 1 pick in 2027, but the rest of the roster is filled with major depth questions. KU has been encouraged by the preseason play of freshman point guard Taylen Kinney, but it's still chasing a potential reunion with former starting point guard Melvin Council Jr. and wing Tre White. Those are floor-raising additions for a Kansas roster that currently does not look the part of a Tier 1 National Championship contender after losing top-rated transfer Flory Bidunga to Louisville.
• Vanderbilt is another sneaky team to monitor. It's exploring a reunion with Tyler Nickel, who was one of the SEC's best 3-point shooters last season and was a second-round pick by the New York Knicks. Nickel has still not signed a deal with the reigning NBA Champions. Spacing is the biggest question with Vanderbilt's new-look roster, but Nickel would fix that in a hurry. A Tyler Tanner-Tyler Nickel duo surrounded by the defensive upgrades Mark Byington found in the portal is a scary combination. 
• Minnesota star Cade Tyson will stay with the Golden Gophers if he gets another year of eligiblity. Minnesota has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2019. This roster could certainly snap that streak ... if Tyson can play. The jumbo wing rediscovered his confidence, pouring in 19.6 points on 42% shooting from beyond the arc in Niko Medved's Princeton-style offense. The Gophers have retained four starters and added key pieces in the portal, specifically point guard Kyan Evans from UNC and big man Malick Kordel from Michigan, to retool the roster. Tyson is the ceiling-raiser that gives Minnesota the All-Big Ten talent it needs to compete with the upper-echelon of the league.