Uncertainty is high as the 2026-27 summer crop season starts

South Africa’s agricultural focus has shifted to the 2026-27 summer crop season, which begins this month. Farmers in some regions have started preparing the land for the new season. In a few weeks, we should see activity across all regions. 

Recent rains have further improved soil moisture, building on already better-than-normal levels from the 2025-26 season. During that period, the rainfall window was prolonged and continued through May, which is unusual, as rains tend to taper off around March. 

As for how much area farmers will plant, especially amid fears of an El Niño-induced drought and higher input costs because of the US-Iran war, we will have an indication later this month. 

On 27 October, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) will release its report on farmers’ intentions to plant for the 2026-27 season. The report will cover maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans.  

Ordinarily, South African farmers plant around 4.5 million hectares for summer crops. But in the 2025-26 season that we are leaving behind, the area increased to 4.6 million hectares as farmers took advantage of the favourable rainfall and crop prices. 

Of the 4.6 million hectares, about 59% (2.7 million hectares) were maize, with 26% (1.2 million hectares) being soybeans. Whether the farmers maintain this area will depend on how they view the risks associated with the expected El Niño-induced drought and their tolerance for the higher fertiliser and fuel prices. 

Broadly, while we expect the season ahead to be challenging for the sector, we don’t anticipate a major reduction in the area planted for now. We still believe the favourable soil moisture at the start of the season may encourage decent plantings. 

Importantly, shorter-growing crop varieties may perform even better if we continue to receive moisture early in the season, as we are now seeing. Still, timing will be critical. 

El Niño

On 30 September, the South African Weather Service (Saws), in its monthly seasonal Climate Watch report, reminded once again that we are already in the El Niño cycle:

“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation … is currently in a strong El Niño state, and current predictions indicate that it will continue strengthening towards a very strong El Niño state within the next couple of months and last at least until the end of the 2026/27 summer season.” 

Saws further noted, “The typical signs that El Niño will affect South Africa are starting to materialise over the Pacific Ocean and it is expected that South Africa will experience the typical impacts of drier and warmer conditions during this coming summer. 

“Predictions indicate that during late spring, early- and mid-summer there are increased chances for below-normal rainfall to occur over most of the north-eastern half of South Africa. This forecast is consistent with typical El Niño effects for Southern Africa.”

Therefore, while the start of the upcoming season looks favourable with the recent rains and better soil moisture we noted, we remain in an environment of elevated risks to the farming sector. Farmers will need to gauge and assess these factors as they head into the start of the season this month. 

While being aware of these possible difficulties and planning for them is key, it’s also important to remember these are forecasts, and uncertainty around them is very high. Thus, we have emphasised the need to plant short-growing cultivars of various crops where necessary, rather than reducing planting. Over the coming months, we will closely monitor these planting decisions, along with weather conditions. 

Positive sentiment

For households, the CEC’s 29 September report underscored the positive sentiment we have expressed about the season we are leaving behind. The CEC again lifted the 2025-26 summer grain and oilseed production estimate by 0.5% from August to 21.7 million tonnes. This is up 6% from the previous season. The estimates comprise maize, sunflower seed, soybean, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. 

We see a monthly uptick mainly in maize, groundnuts, and dry beans. Seasonally, there is a broad increase and a record harvest for some crops, such as maize and soybeans. These data reaffirmed our optimism that we are approaching the start of the 2026-27 production season in a much better position on domestic grain and oilseed supplies than during the recent droughts. This further eases the worries about a notable surge in food prices, at least in the first part of the season. 

Still, looking ahead to the whole of 2027 and beyond, a lot will depend on the upcoming 2026-27 season, which faces various uncertainties. DM