TVK leads in Tamil Nadu bypolls, but AIADMK resistance tests Vijay’s strategy of attracting defectors

For months, the movement of legislators from the AIADMK to Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay’s TVK had appeared to follow a simple political calculation: the future belonged to the new ruling party. But as votes were counted in two Tamil Nadu Assembly by-elections on Friday morning, an unexpectedly close contest in Dharapuram offered the first serious test of that assumption.

TVK was leading in Madurantakam and had moved ahead in Dharapuram after an early challenge from the AIADMK. Yet the narrow margins in Dharapuram, where the AIADMK briefly led, suggested that the opposition party retained a significant electoral base even after losing its sitting legislator to Vijay.

The implications extend beyond the two constituencies. Four other Assembly seats remain vacant following the resignations of AIADMK legislators who moved towards TVK. Their political calculations could become more difficult if Friday’s results show that joining the ruling party does not necessarily guarantee re-election.

For Vijay, therefore, the question is not simply whether TVK can win two additional seats. It is whether the results encourage more AIADMK legislators to cross over or persuade those considering such a move to reconsider.

In Dharapuram, the first round of counting gave the AIADMK an advantage as votes from rural areas were counted. TVK subsequently improved its position when votes from urban centres entered the count.

An early tally showed AIADMK candidate K Bhanumathi receiving 2,639 votes against 2,634 for TVK’s P Sathyabama, a difference of just five votes. DMK candidate Suganya had 2,019.

A subsequent count put Bhanumathi at 6,450 votes and Sathyabama at 6,384, leaving the AIADMK ahead by only 66 votes. The lead subsequently changed, according to the latest trends, although the final outcome remained uncertain. The rural-urban variation is significant, but the early figures are too limited to establish a constituency-wide voting pattern.

In Madurantakam, TVK appeared more comfortably placed.

Its candidate, Maragatham Kumaravel, received 3,521 votes in the first round, followed by DMK candidate E Paranthaman with 2,611 and AIADMK candidate Kanitha Sampath with 2,078.

By the second round, TVK remained ahead, while the DMK and AIADMK competed for second place. Later trends put Kumaravel above 7,000 votes and Paranthaman above 6,000.

Both TVK candidates had won their constituencies on AIADMK tickets in April before resigning their seats and joining Vijay’s party. Their decisions forced voters to return to the polls barely six months after the general election. The results will therefore test whether voters elected the individuals or the party they represented.

In April, Sathyabama secured 81,100 votes in Dharapuram as an AIADMK candidate, defeating the DMK by 16,727 votes. Kumaravel won Madurantakam with 69,284 votes, defeating TVK by 7,194 votes.

Their re-election under a different party symbol would strengthen Vijay’s argument that political loyalties are shifting towards TVK. A defeat in either constituency would suggest that the AIADMK retains enough organisational strength and voter loyalty to challenge defections.

The DMK, meanwhile, has a different benchmark. Having lost power in April and entered these by-elections without its former alliance arrangement, the party can claim a measure of stability if it retains its previous vote totals, even without winning either seat.

The DMK received 59,838 votes in Madurantakam and 64,373 in Dharapuram in April. Matching those figures, particularly amid a lower turnout, would provide evidence that its electoral base has not substantially eroded.

Vijay campaigned extensively in both constituencies, spending four days on rallies and roadshows – an unusually intensive intervention by a sitting Chief Minister in two Assembly by-elections. That investment has raised expectations within TVK.

For the AIADMK, however, even a close defeat could offer encouragement if it demonstrates that its voters have not automatically followed departing legislators into the ruling party. By 10am, neither constituency had delivered a verdict. But the early counting had already complicated the assumption that a legislator’s move to the ruling party necessarily carries the constituency along.