The Badenoch bounce! Tories leapfrog Reform after Kemi's conference tax vow - and move within a point of Labour

Published: 08:15 BST, 13 October 2026 | Updated: 08:16 BST, 13 October 2026

Kemi Badenoch looks to have secured a conference bounce, with the Tories leapfrogging Reform and closing on Labour.

The latest YouGov research found the Conservatives have gained three points since the gathering in Birmingham, reaching 23 per cent support.

That meant Nigel Farage's party was pushed into third place on the firm's voting intention tracker for the first time since 2024, at 21 per cent.

Labour saw its backing drop three points to 24 per cent, in a potential sign that the effects of Andy Burnham's arrival are dissipating. 

Mrs Badenoch used her big speech last week to make a big move on inheritance tax, pledging to exempt family homes altogether and give couples a £1million allowance.

Kemi Badenoch looks to have secured a conference bounce, with the Tories leapfrogging Reform and closing on Labour

An Opinium poll at the weekend also suggested the Tories had scored a bounce, in a relief for strategists who had feared the leader's improved personal ratings were not feeding through to a wider boost.

But the latest survey could cool fevered rumours at Westminster about the prospect of a snap general election.

Mr Burnham has denied he is considering an early ballot, but Mrs Badenoch's aides were on alert during Labour conference in case he did trigger a contest. 

The Tories have been holding election meetings since July, with a draft manifesto and campaign 'grid' in place detailing the seats Mrs Badenoch will visit and public appearances she will make.

However, the split of support detected by YouGov would almost certainly produce a hung Parliament, with the shape of any Government incredibly hard to predict. 

The pollsters said there did appear to be a Tory bounce, while stressing that weekly moves were within the margin of error and it is difficult to distinguish 'signal from noise'.

Mrs Badenoch said in her speech that the £6billion pledge on death duties will be funded by cuts to the welfare budget.

The move followed last year's promise to scrap stamp duty, and a new pledge to ditch Labour's so-called 'mansion tax'.

Mrs Badenoch said the plans were a reminder that the Tories 'are and always have been the party of home ownership', adding that those who 'work hard and save should be rewarded for that effort'.

'This is my guarantee: no stamp duty when you buy your home; no mansion tax when you live in your home; and no inheritance tax on your home when you pass it to your children or grandchildren,' she said.

She added: 'The Labour Party think it is selfish to pass on what you have earned to your children. We don't.'