Rising UK supermarket price inflation forcing shoppers to hunt for bargains

Supermarket inflation has risen slightly once again, as consumers increasingly rely on promotional deals to manage household expenses, new figures show.

Figures from Worldpanel by Numerator show shelf prices are 2.5 per cent higher than last year, up from 2.3 per cent previously recorded.

Promotional expenditure over the past month increased by more than a quarter of a billion pounds compared with last year. Worldpanel noted that special offers remain a key mechanism for shoppers looking to keep grocery bills in check, whilst rendering pricier items and larger packs more affordable.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said: “With the autumn Budget fast approaching, the cost of living continues to weigh heavily on the minds of shoppers. And the cost of filling up a car is only adding to the pressure on household budgets.

“More than half tell us they’re very or extremely worried about petrol prices, and almost one in three say it’s already taking a real toll on their finances.

“Until the chancellor sets out his plans, we expect that caution to carry on showing up at the till, with shoppers leaning more heavily on promotions to keep their grocery spend under control.”

However, in some good news for households preparing for Halloween, like-for-like chocolate confectionery prices are 3 per cent lower than a year ago.

Some 1.2 million households bought a pumpkin over the latest four weeks – an increase of 10 per cent compared with the same time last year, while more than 250,000 households purchased a pumpkin spice coffee.

Mr McKevitt added: “Halloween and Christmas are two of the most important moments of the year for chocolate confectionery, so falling prices will be welcome news for shoppers and retailers alike.

“After the double digit increases of 2025, a 3 per cent drop won’t fully reverse what consumers have paid in recent months, but it should help ease some of the pressure on household budgets as the festive season approaches.”

Lidl led in market share gains over the 12 weeks to 4 October, climbing to 8.6 per cent on the back of a 7.1 per cent increase in sales driven by fruit, vegetables and wine.

Sales at online specialist Ocado increased by 12.4 per cent, outpacing overall online sales at 5.5 per cent.

Spending through the tills was 1 per cent higher at Tesco and 1.3 per cent higher at Sainsbury’s, with the two retailers holding 27.8 per cent and 15.2 per cent of the market respectively.

Asda’s share now stands at 11.5 per cent, while Aldi now holds 10.5 per cent of the market, with sales at the discounter up 0.4 per cent year on year.

Beyond the supermarkets, grocery sales at M&S rose by 14.9 per cent.