Most BOJ watchers expect next interest rate hike in December

Some 83% of economists forecast the Bank of Japan will raise borrowing costs from the current level of 1.25% at its policy board meeting in December. | Bloomberg

Oct 22, 2026

More than 80% of Bank of Japan watchers anticipate the central bank’s next interest rate increase will come in December, according to a recent survey. None expect a hike when the bank concludes its next meeting on Oct. 30.

Some 83% of economists forecast the bank will raise borrowing costs from the current level of 1.25% at its meeting ending on Dec. 18. Just last month, only 35% forecast a hike in December. In that survey, January was the most popular pick for the next rate hike.

The latest survey results also show that 67% of respondents expect the BOJ to raise rates every three months, up from 46% in the last survey. That points to expectations that the BOJ will maintain the same tempo of rate hikes after it raised rates in September for the second time in three months, the fastest pace since 1990.

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