Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky prediction, odds, time: Week 6 CFB Thursday picks by proven model
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SportsLine's model revealed its best bets for the Thursday Conference USA matchup featuring Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky
• 2 min read
The Missouri State Bears open Conference USA play when they battle the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Thursday night on CBS Sports Network. Missouri State is coming off a 34-24 loss at SMU on Sept. 26, while Western Kentucky dropped a 34-13 decision at New Mexico State on Oct. 1. The Bears (1-3, 0-0 C-USA), who have lost two in a row, are 0-2 on the road this season. The Hilltoppers (1-4, 0-1 C-USA), who have been outscored 198-99 on the year, are 1-0 on their home field in 2026. Western Kentucky leads the all-time series 9-2, including nine straight wins in the series. Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:
Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Ky. The Hilltoppers are 2.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 56.5 in the latest Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky odds. Before making any Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State picks, check out the Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State odds
Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky spread | Western Kentucky -2.5 |
Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky over/under | 56.5 points |
Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky money line | Western Kentucky -135, Missouri State +114 |
Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky picks | |
Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky streaming | Fubo (Try for free) |
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Top Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State predictions
After simulating Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Over 56.5 points at betting apps. The Over has hit in six of the last 10 Missouri State games, including two of their last three. The Over has also hit in five of the last nine Western Kentucky matchups.
Fifth-year quarterback Skyler Locklear is expected to start for the Bears. He has completed 70.2% of his passes for 699 yards and four touchdowns with one interception. Sophomore quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. gets the start for the Hilltoppers. He has completed 66.9% of his passes for 852 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions.
SportsLine's model is projecting 61 points in this one, making the Over the value 64% of the time. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.
How to make Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky picks
In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 40-35 run on top-rated CFB picks, and find out.
Why you should trust SportsLine's model
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It entered Week 6 on a profitable 40-35 run on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns.
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