Labor is 'facing its greatest challenge in decades' in Queensland

Queensland Labor is facing its "greatest challenge in decades", and leader Steven Miles is attempting to defy history, past the halfway mark of a rare term in opposition.

Miles, a ten-month premier after succeeding Annastacia Palaszczuk, is vying to return to the role, a feat not achieved since 1911.

In tumultuous political times, it's a daunting task. He faces a popular premier, frustration from the right faction of his party, and an insurgent One Nation.

And not one of the 36 Labor MPs has had the displeasure of serving in opposition before this term.

Kos Samaras, pollster and director of the RedBridge Group, said Labor was in a tight contest with One Nation to be Queensland's second most popular political party.

"Queensland Labor is now facing its greatest challenge in decades," he said.

"It faces now not only an LNP government that is popular, and that's something you can overcome over time after a few cycles, but it's also got One Nation now coming through."

Federally, One Nation has largely siphoned votes from the Coalition.

But in Queensland, polling suggests its vote share is split evenly from the LNP and Labor.

Leadership whispers

The LNP has consistently attempted to fan the flames of division, claiming for some time Miles's colleagues were coming for his leadership.

Pressed this week by ABC Radio Brisbane's Ellen Fanning on whether he would be given a deadline to turn things around, the opposition leader denied any such discussions.

"Obviously we talk about the task that's ahead of us, and we have two more years to highlight how much worse off Queenslanders are under the Crisafulli government and to take to them a plan for the state's future," he said.

"I think it's natural, after Labor was in government for a significant period of time, to do some soul-searching, to learn the lessons of that defeat and to start with a bit of a clean slate."

But that clean slate may be difficult for some voters to see, when the Labor shadow cabinet is largely the same as when it occupied the government pews.

Privately, many Labor sources backed Miles, noting opposition leader was the hardest job in politics.

But others expressed frustration with a lack of direction and a haphazard approach.

Labor, to its credit, has begun holding local forums to hear voters' concerns about the housing crisis.

It's reminiscent of the LNP's approach in opposition, and its Health Crisis Town Halls.

Sarah Mawhinney, executive director of the McKell Institute and former Labor policy advisor, said while the party "needed to start taking bark off the government", it was building well towards 2028.

"You're not going to win an election in the first year of opposition; you're not going to win it in 2027," she said.

"It will take a lot of work to reconnect with the electorate and make the case as to why voters should trust Labor again."

The contenders

There is also the question of who would even want the top job.

A new leader would face a mammoth task in presenting a fresh approach to tackle the LNP, even with a sufficient runway to the next poll.

Frontbenchers Cameron Dick, Shannon Fentiman, and Meaghan Scanlon are all commonly floated names, all of whom have backed Miles publicly.

But Dick doesn't have the numbers in the minority right faction, nor does Fentiman in the left.

And Scanlon, in the Miles left faction camp, faces a battle just to retain her Gold Coast seat.

With its boundaries set to be redrawn, Gaven looks to be more friendly LNP territory in the conservative region, and Scanlon holds it on a less than one per cent margin.

Rocky regional road

The regions loom large in Labor's problems.

Outside of south-east Queensland, it holds just three seats: Cairns, Bundaberg, and Gladstone.

The LNP is acutely aware of its regional dependence, evidenced by its commitment to spread the 2032 Olympics and Paralympic events across the state.

And there are few places in the nation where the orange juggernaut of One Nation looms larger than regional Queensland.

"A combination of the One Nation vote and the LNP vote makes it very hard to see a world where Labor has any traction outside of Brisbane," Samaras said.

"And I wouldn't rule out them losing further seats in Brisbane."

He noted even a former Labor stronghold like Rockhampton, conceded for the first time since 1932, was unlikely to return red.

"What is happening in Rockhampton is a process that we're seeing evolve across the country, where regional communities are moving more to parties of the right and centre right."

Voters will ultimately judge Labor's performance when polls open in October 2028.