One year on, LDP-JIP partnership still has some holes to fill

A year after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi forged a hasty coalition government with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), what began as a political marriage of convenience is evolving into a deeper relationship after some parliamentary successes.

But with controversial legislation still to be enacted and not everyone in Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party enthusiastic about a long-term relationship with the JIP — also known as Nippon Ishin no Kai — the coalition’s future remains uncertain, even though a divorce anytime soon appears unlikely.

After being elected LDP president last October, Takaichi faced her first crisis when Komeito, the LDP’s coalition partner since 1999, announced it was departing because it could not support her conservative, hawkish policy approach.

Forced to scramble to find a new coalition partner, Takaichi forged a 12-point policy agreement with the Osaka-centric JIP only a day before being elected as prime minister. The two parties were largely in agreement over a broad range of legislative agenda items that JIP leader and Osaka Gov. Hirofumi Yoshimura highlighted Tuesday.

“We’ve realized free high school tuition and free school lunches for elementary school students. On national security, which the LDP-Komeito coalition government struggled to make progress on, I believe we’ve made significant progress in strengthening Japan’s security, improving the treatment of Self-Defense Forces, strengthening economic security, enhancing intelligence capabilities and establishing the National Intelligence Bureau,” Yoshimura told reporters in Osaka.

Yoshimura added that the coalition is working toward reducing social insurance premiums for younger working generations, a long sought JIP goal.

But two others, reducing the food consumption tax from 8% to 1% for two years and reducing the number of Lower House proportional seats, strongly pushed by the JIP, are far more thorny issues — particularly the latter.

All major opposition parties are opposed to reducing seats, and many within the LDP have also expressed reservations, even as the government aims to pass both bills in the current parliamentary session scheduled to end Dec. 12.

Speaking during a Lower House budget committee meeting last week, Takaichi touted the coalition’s achievements, and framed the inclusion of a JIP member in her administration as a sign of significant progress.

“With (last month’s) reshuffle, we’ve welcomed Hiroshi Nakatsuka to the Cabinet, and I believe our coalition has advanced to a new stage,” Takaichi said.

A three-term lawmaker, Nakatsuka was appointed the minister for regulatory reform while five other JIP ministers received senior posts. The JIP initially chose to remain outside the Cabinet during the administration’s first year, citing a lack of governing experience and a need to first build trust with the LDP.

The relationship’s next stage could prove far more difficult than the first — not only due to controversial policy issues like parliamentary seat reductions, but also because of Takaichi’s own position within the party.

At this point, the LDP-JIP tie-up is still more of a relationship between Takaichi and the senior JIP leadership, said Ritsumeikan University political scientist Masato Kamikubo.

Deeper bonds between rank-and-file members of both parties are lacking.

“The JIP has become a source of support for a prime minister isolated within her own party. They are the LDP’s ‘Takaichi faction.’ That doesn’t amount to a relationship between the two parties as a whole and many LDP lawmakers view the JIP unfavorably,” said Kamikubo.

Takaichi invited the JIP to form a coalition last October when the LDP lacked a majority in both houses. The partnership continued after the LDP won a two-thirds majority in February’s Lower House election, and with the coalition lacking a majority in the Senate, they are likely to stick together even if Takaichi’s popularity declines.

Yet if ties between the LDP and JIP sour, casting off the JIP and courting an alternative — whether it be Komeito, the Democratic Party for the People, or some other party — would also be difficult for the LDP.

“The DPP is supported by numerous labor unions. The unions may tolerate cooperation with the LDP on individual policies, but would not accept the DPP joining an LDP-led coalition,” Kamikuno said. “Rebuilding the coalition with Komeito would also be difficult, given that they parted ways only a year ago.”