Nigeria at 66, By Jibrin Ibrahim

Yesterday, President Tinubu addressed Nigerians on the occasion of our 66th independence anniversary. The content of the speech resembles what we expect to hear at each anniversary. Lots of optimism about a greater tomorrow but no clear pathway to that outcome. The title of the address was from reform to prosperity. What Nigerians see in their daily life is poverty, hunger, privations and misery. Nigerians were assured that the greater tomorrow is on the road. Once again, they promised us that a country of our size, our bountiful resources, our cultural diversity and, above all, our extraordinary people can build a giant in Africa; that in this blessed and fertile land we can build a united, strong and prosperous nation; a land of regional authority and global consequence. The President reminded the Nation that our founding fathers did not struggle merely for a flag, an anthem or a place among the nations of the world. Independence carried a larger promise: that Nigerians would have the freedom to shape their own destiny and build a nation capable of providing opportunity, dignity and a better life for its people. Sixty-six years later, Almighty God has made it our responsibility to deliver that promise. These are fantastic words we all agree on. The question is whether we are really on the pathway to the promised land.

The independence anniversary is the last before next year’s general election and the President is confronted with a population that believes firmly that his reforms have failed woefully and blames Bola Tinubu for the hunger and misery in their daily lives. The task of the President is to convince the people that they must disregard the facts of their lives and believe the Eldorado they had been promised is just around the corner. His problem is that reality is too blatant to be disregarded and while the presidential speech writing team can compose beautiful prose, the reality of hunger has zero tolerance for wonderful prose. Nonetheless, they tried their best.

The President argued that by 2023, poverty was rising, and hope was nearly gone. The country’s situation was darker than ever. We had no choice but to act. The imagery used was eloquent: “Nigeria was like a sick patient who receives the terrible news that he has cancer. His doctor explains that the treatment will be difficult and painful, but that it offers a strong prospect of recovery. The patient has a choice. He can begin treatment, endure its discomfort and fight the disease. Or he can ask only for morphine, dull the pain and leave the cancer to spread.” Tinubu is the doctor with the real cure to Nigeria’s cancer. All other Nigerian leaders had been fake doctors without the capacity to cure.

The problem he has is that he has been in power for three and half years and while he claims to see the signs of recovery, the citizens are not seeing what he is seeing and they know the time to choose an alternative leader has arrived. Tinubu sees evidence of a four percent growth of the economy this year but Nigerians know they are dying of malaria and other diseases they cannot afford medical care for. His government sees that inflation has fallen substantially from its peak but citizens know that they are facing the worst cost of living crisis in their lifetime. The Administration is proud of its record of the highest revenue from non-oil exports in its history, exceeding $6 billion but what the people see is the highest and most reckless theft from the treasury in recorded history. Corruption had been fighting Nigeria for a long time and under President Tinubu, corruption won the battle against Nigeria.

As things stand, Nigerians see the President’s claim as make-belief, as fiction that is very far from their lived reality. They do not see the evidence that the cancer is in remission. In such situations, the evidence of lived reality always triumphs over the beauty of the poetry written by good speech writers. As we ponder on the meaning of our independence this weekend, the overall question is what does this mean for the politics of the 2027 general elections?

The key issue is that the ruling APC cannot justify why Nigerians should give them a second term when their assessment is that they have failed to deliver on their promises for the first term. They have failed on security provisioning and millions of farmers cannot go to the farm safely. They have failed to keep their promise that they will substantially increase power supply to support the promise of a massive industrialisation drive. This promise is a particularly painful one for them because the video clip where Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu asked Nigerians to stone them if they fail to provide power and turn around to ask Nigerians to grant them a second term. Politicians should learn to be careful about what they pray for as God may grant them their prayers.

The reality I am writing about is one that the President is very much aware of even if he never admits it. It is because of his awareness that his plans for the 2027 elections have never been about his manifesto. His Administration has focused is cajoling, threatening and maybe even bribing opposition governors to jettison their parties and join the ruling party. They have been in open warfare with major opposition presidential candidates using the judiciary and state power to block their pathway to nomination and make their campaign difficult. They have appointed a new leadership in the Electoral Commission that appears to be already compromised. The good speeches they read are in reality “Naija for show” while the real dirty battles are happening in other spaces.

What is clear is that the 2027 elections will be a tough one for the Nigerian people. If Nigerians allow state power to impose a failed administration, that would be the end of Nigerian democracy. If democracy fails, the survival of the political entity itself comes into question. The best way forward is to continue to make the rational case that this Administration has failed and we need to democratically elect a better one. My fellow compatriots have the capacity to do it.

A professor of Political Science and development consultant/expert, Jibrin Ibrahim is a Senior Fellow of the Centre for Democracy and Development, and Chair of the Editorial Board of PREMIUM TIMES.