Kenya Met Explains Delay in October-December Rains as Dry Weather Persists

Kenyans hoping for the October-December short rains may have to wait longer, as atmospheric conditions over the Indian Ocean continue to disrupt the movement of rain-bearing systems across the country.

The Kenya Meteorological Department says low-pressure systems developing over the northern Indian Ocean temporarily slowed the southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which plays a major role in bringing rainfall during the short-rains season.

Speaking to a local station on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, Kenya Met Director of Public Weather Services Hannah Kimani explained that the changing atmospheric conditions had disrupted the expected spread of rainfall to several parts of the country.

“During October to December, the Intertropical Convergence Zone brings us rainfall when it is moving from the north to the southern hemisphere,” she said.

“Low-pressure systems developing over the northern Indian Ocean temporarily stopped the southward progression of the intertropical convergence zone,” Kimani added.

She noted that some areas began receiving rainfall as early as September, while others experienced the onset during the first week of October. However, the development of low-pressure systems over the northern Indian Ocean temporarily interrupted the progression of the rain-bearing zone.

Indian Ocean conditions disrupt rainfall

The delay has been particularly noticeable in parts of central and eastern Kenya, where residents expected rainfall to spread gradually as the season progressed.

Kimani said the Indian Ocean, which supplies moisture that supports rainfall, had not developed the conditions necessary to sustain the anticipated rains in some areas.

“That is why we’ve been experiencing the dry weather conditions in a period where we expected also to gradually spread to the other parts of the country,” she said.

According to Kimani, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri and Meru were among the areas that had recorded the onset of rainfall as expected.

The uneven distribution highlights the fact that seasonal forecasts do not mean all parts of the country will receive rain at the same time.

El Niño raises expectations for heavier rains

Expectations for the season had been high following projections that El Niño conditions could enhance rainfall across parts of East Africa.

A FEWS NET special report published on October 6, 2026, said the 2026-2027 El Niño had strengthened to very strong levels. The combination of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole was expected to bring above-average rainfall across the Greater Horn of Africa.

Historical comparisons suggested that rainfall could reach 150 per cent of the average or more in many areas.

“While above-average rains will benefit many areas through favourable crop production and improved pasture, browse, and water availability, strong El Niño events also typically bring heavy rainfall and flooding in the eastern Horn,” FEWS NET said.

However, the forecast of above-average seasonal rainfall does not guarantee continuous rain or a simultaneous onset across all counties.

Atmospheric circulation, moisture availability and the movement of weather systems all influence when and where rainfall develops, meaning some areas may experience prolonged dry spells even during a season expected to be wetter than average.

Tropical storm could bring rain to parts of Kenya

The Kenya Meteorological Department is also monitoring a tropical storm in the Indian Ocean that could influence rainfall over the country.

Kimani cautioned that the impact of tropical storms depends on their movement and trajectory. While some systems can enhance rainfall, others may divert rain-bearing systems away from Kenya.

“Our weekly weather forecast that we issued on Monday showed us that towards the weekend we may start experiencing rainfall in pockets of the country,” she said.

The department is expected to continue monitoring atmospheric conditions and issuing updated forecasts as new data becomes available.