Leni Robredo-Raffy Tulfo leading Baste Duterte-Robin Padilla -- OCTA 2028 tandem survey

Mayor Leni Robredo–Sen. Raffy Tulfo tandem leads Mayor Baste Duterte–Sen. Robin Padilla in a hypothetical 2028 presidential and vice presidential tandem matchup, according to OCTA’s First 2028 Tandem Survey.

Nationwide, at least 43% of adult Filipinos say they would vote for the Robredo–Tulfo tandem while 39% will choose the Duterte-Padilla tandem, while 18% choose neither tandem or say they do not know.

Among the 1,170 respondents who reported being registered voters, the results are virtually the same: 43% for the Robredo–Tulfo tandem, 40% for the Duterte–Padilla tandem, and 17% uncommitted.

In OCTA’s first survey of this hypothetical 2028 pairing, the Robredo–Tulfo tandem leads nationally by four points, just above the ±3% margin of error. OCTA underscored that the figures cannot yet show whether support for either tandem is rising or falling.

The results reflect voter preferences at the time of fieldwork, from September 28 to October 4, 2026, roughly 19 months before the May 2028 elections and more than a month before Mayor Leni Robredo’s November 9 reiteration that she will not run.

With 18% of voters uncommitted and the Visayas and Class D evenly split, the results set a baseline for a contest that is still taking shape, the key findings from the third quarter Tugon ng Masa (TNM) are non-commissioned nationwide survey showed.

The survey is an independent and non-partisan poll conducted regularly by OCTA Research.

The survey fieldwork was conducted using face-to face interviews of 1,200 probability respondents aged 18 and above, both male and female, were interviewed for the study. The survey has a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level.

Mayor Leni Robredo announced in April 2026 that she will not run for President in 2028, and she again reiterated this positionon November 9, 2026, describing the matter as closed, stating that she does not intend to return to national politics, and indicating that she will instead seek reelection as mayor of Naga City.

"While OCTA acknowledges Mayor Leni Robredo’s statement, it should be stressed that the survey was conducted from September 28 to October 4, 2026 — more than a month before her November 9 statement — and therefore does not reflect any public reaction to it."

Mayor Baste Duterte, for his part, has not declared a presidential bid. Neither tandem is a declared ticket.

With fieldwork conducted from September 28 to October 4, 2026, coincided with the Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte are not reflected in the survey results, and OCTA draws no inference about the effect of the proceedings on voter preferences.

The OCTA Research said the results of the probe are not a forecast, and they are likely to change as the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte proceeds and as candidacies, alliances, and public issues develop.

Ethnoliguistic, geographic divide

"Beneath the national figures, the two tandems appear to draw on distinct coalitions, and the sharpest lines between them may be ethnolinguistic and geographic rather than socioeconomic."

The Robredo–Tulfo tandem leads by wide margins among Tagalog/Filipino (54% to 24%) and Ilocano (80% to 8%) respondents, while the Duterte–Padilla tandem leads 75% to 10% among Cebuano/Bisaya respondents; Ilonggo respondents are closely divided (42% to 40%).

Tagalog/Filipino speakers make up 57% of the Robredo–Tulfo tandem’s voters, while Cebuano/Bisaya speakers make up 46% of the Duterte–Padilla tandem’s voters.

Socioeconomic classes

By contrast, differences across socioeconomic classes are more modest: Class D, about four in five adults, is evenly split at 41% each.

The Robredo–Tulfo coalition appears anchored in Luzon. The tandem leads 61% to 19% in Balance Luzon, rising to 69% in North Luzon, and 49% to 32% in NCR, and about four in five of its voters (80%) live in Luzon. It also leads in Western Visayas (60%) and the Negros Island Region (62%), and among women (47% to 36%), urban residents (48% to 36%), voters aged 45 and above, Classes ABC (53% to 29%) and E (48% to 37%), and college-educated respondents (46% to 33%).

The Duterte–Padilla coalition appears anchored in Mindanao and Central Visayas. The tandem leads 81% to 4% in Mindanao, with shares of 84% to 90% in Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, CARAGA and BARMM, and 79% in Central Visayas.

Nearly half of its voters (47%) live in Mindanao, but more than half live elsewhere, and NCR is its second largest regional source of voters. It leads among men (43% to 39%), rural residents (43% to 36%), voters aged 25 to 44, respondents with no formal or elementary education (47% to 37%), and the D2 segment of Class D (45% to 37%). Between these bases lies a contested middle.

The Visayas as a whole (43% Duterte-Padilla, 41% Robredo–Tulfo), Class D, voters aged 18 to 24 (39% to 38%), and high school educated respondents (43% to 41%) are closely divided.

The uncommitted bloc — 18% nationally, more than four times the gap — is concentrated in South Luzon and among younger voters, with shares of 32% in CALABARZON and 36% in rural South Luzon, and its eventual choices may pull in different directions.

"With the lead slight, the uncommitted bloc large, and the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte still unresolved, this matchup remains an early and open baseline — not a prediction of the May 2028 outcome," the group said. — BAP, GMA News