One year after Trump's ceasefire, the next challenge in Gaza is still unclear - analysis

The Gaza ceasefire took shape a year ago. In September 2025, US President Donald Trump met with key Arab leaders, which eventually led to a ceasefire in Gaza. Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law who has played a key role in the 20-point peace plan, posted about the significance of the one-year anniversary of the ceasefire. “One year ago today, on October 9, 2025, we reached an agreement on President Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza many believed impossible,” he wrote.

He noted the importance of ending the devastating war. He wanted an agreement that created “a path to reunite hostage families with their loved ones, bring security to Israel, relieve the suffering of the Palestinian people in Gaza, and build a different future for the region.”

Kushner praised the progress since October 9, 2025, when Hamas accepted Trump’s 20-point peace plan, noting some of the milestones since that day.

On October 13, “all 20 living Israeli hostages return home. Something many believed would never happen.” He also noted how the UN backed the US plan.

He didn’t mention all the important pieces that came together in the following weeks. For instance, the US-backed CMCC in Kiryat Gat was set up. This was set up largely by US Central Command and brought together a number of countries. The concept was to coordinate aid deliveries and monitor the ceasefire. By January 2026, Kushner notes that the UN said that “100% of basic food needs being met in Gaza for the first time since 2023.”

In January 2026, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza was established. This is supposed to be the Palestinian technocratic government for Gaza. So far Israel has not permitted it to operate in Gaza. Two million civilians are still stuck under Hamas rule in around 40 percent of Gaza.

The Board of Peace, established as part of the Trump plan, has tried to do some work on the sidelines to see what might happen after Israel’s elections. In general, the theory is that Israel won’t do anything on Gaza until after the elections.

For instance, the peace plan was supposed to see the creation of an international security force. This ISF only seems to have a few dozen personnel so far. Albania and Kosovo were some of the first to come forward. In June, reports indicated that Morocco and Greece might help support it. Reports also indicated that Kazakhstan would be helpful. Israel, meanwhile, has expelled some countries from the CMCC over diplomatic disputes.

On the border of Gaza, a new logistics facility called LSA Endurance has taken shape. However, a lot remains to be seen.

Kushner noted that the remains of all the deceased hostages had been returned by late January 2026. He also noted that on July 31, “Hamas signs an actionable, step-by-step framework for decommissioning its weapons, developed with the support of Nikolay Mladenov and mediators from Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, and the United States. Implementation remains a critical next step.”

The last thing on the Kushner list was a meeting on September 23 where the “Board of Peace hosts an open meeting on the sidelines of UNGA releasing the next steps in the Gaza recovery plan.”

Board of Peace efforts overshadowed by Iran war

Some of the work of the Board of Peace has been overshadowed by the war with Iran. The US administration has been sidetracked to some extent. It also has to deal with other fronts that Israel is involved with.

For instance, the administration has had to help Israel in Lebanon with the Lebanese government, where the US also backs a ceasefire. The US also tried to smooth relations between Israel and Damascus and to prevent Israel-Turkey relations from becoming a crisis. At the same time, recent reports indicate Iran is rebuilding its missile and drone program, and Hamas continues to recruit in Gaza.

Kushner notes that “There is still hard work ahead. Disarmament must be implemented, security established, essential services restored, and communities rebuilt. None of this will be easy. But we have a thoughtful plan, committed partners, and a path forward that did not exist a year ago.”

The challenge in Gaza is that it’s not clear what comes next. Arab News noted that “Reconstruction of the devastated Palestinian territory called for under the ceasefire plan has still not materialized.” The report says Israel controls around seventy percent of Gaza. “Nothing has changed for the better; everything has gotten worse, they lie to us, it is all lies,” Fatima Awkal, a displaced woman in Gaza City, told AFP. The AFP article is the basis for the Arab News report.

It says, “On the streets of Gaza City, rows of white tents line passageways that have been cleared of rubble from destroyed homes, while in the distance blown-out windows gape from the facades of buildings that remain standing.” This report also says around “82 percent of all standing structures in Gaza either damaged or destroyed as of mid-2026 per the UN.”

It notes that the concept of the plan was for there to be a political transition in Gaza away from Hamas rule. This has not happened. In the past, Israel has accepted Hamas rule in Gaza, and prior to October 7, 2023, there was cash entering Hamas-run Gaza from Doha. The Hamas leadership continues to live in Qatar. As such, it’s unclear whether the promised change under the Trump plan will happen.

The Arab News report and others paint a concerning picture of Gaza. People there say little has changed. While Kushner has praised the peace deal, the question is what happens next. This has always been the challenge in the past as well. Getting a ceasefire is one thing. Changing the status quo is another.

Israeli voices call to re-settle Gaza Strip

Some voices in Israel’s politics have vowed to re-settle Gaza and have encouraged people to emigrate from the enclave. There do not appear to be many voices discussing how to remove Hamas or whether policymakers in Jerusalem want Hamas removed. The war largely resulted in moving people in Gaza from place to place, with Hamas hiding among them.

The most recent IDF data says that the Israeli military carried out 100,000 strikes in Gaza in three years of war. Many of these were carried out in the first months of the fighting. The IDF also says that it eliminated four heads of Hamas military branches along with 17 brigade commanders, approximately 60 battalion commanders, and approximately 300 company commanders. Hamas only had 24 battalions and five regional brigades. As such, it would appear that in many cases the brigade commanders and battalion commanders were eliminated twice. T

he same goes for the company commanders. What this means is that Hamas replaced the ones who were killed, and then the replacements were killed. Israel also estimates it has eliminated 4,000 of the 6,000 people who attacked Israel on October 7, some of them Hamas and some of them members of other groups or civilian looters.