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Friday, October 2, 2026

Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction, odds: Week 5 college football picks by proven model

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The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed its best bets for Minnesota vs. Michigan the battle for the Little Brown Jug

• 2 min read

The Little Brown Jug is on the line Saturday when the Minnesota Golden Gophers host the Michigan Wolverines in a Big Ten football showdown. The Wolverines have owned the series, compiling a 78-25-3 recording dating back over a century. They've won the last five and 27 of the last 29 meetings. But Michigan is 0-1 in the Big Ten after the stunning last-place loss to Iowa, while Minnesota opened B10 action with a 27-24 win at Washington. Michigan's defense ranks among the nation's best, while Minnesota has been a master of time of possession and have a fun crowd for its annual Stripe Out game where fans alternate colors based on section. Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $25 bonus after $10 in trades:

Kickoff is set for noon ET at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The Wolverines are 5.5-point home favorites, down from -8.5, with the over/under at 43.5 in the latest Michigan vs. Minnesota odds. Before making any Minnesota vs. Michigan picks, check out the Michigan vs. Minnesota predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

Michigan vs. Minnesota odds

Michigan vs. Minnesota spread

Michigan -5.5

Michigan vs. Minnesota over/under

43.5 points

Michigan vs. Minnesota money line 

Michigan -215, Minnesota +185

Michigan vs. Minnesota picks

See picks at SportsLine

Michigan vs. Minnesota streaming 

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Top Michigan vs. Minnesota predictions

After simulating Minnesota vs. Michigan 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Over 43.5 points at betting apps. Only one Michigan game has totaled more than 39 points, and that was a 52-17 blowout victory over UTEP. Michigan ranks 107th in total offense, and seventh on the defensive side. Minnesota, however, has trended the other direction, so this game could be higher-scoring than what the Wolverines have been accustomed to.

Minnesota's matchup with Power 4 schools -- Mississippi State and Washington -- both finished with exactly 51 points. This is by far the lowest total of any Gophers game. SportsLine's model says it's too low, projecting 47 points with the Over hitting in a solid 60% of the simulations. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.

How to make Michigan vs. Minnesota picks

In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Michigan vs. Minnesota, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 34-25 run on top-rated CFB picks, and find out.

Why you should trust SportsLine's model

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites, returning nearly $600 for $100 players. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns. 

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