Could NFC North have four playoff teams? After strong Week 8, it's looking more likely than ever

Nov 3, 2026 at 11:26 am ET • 4 min read

The NFC North had a good Week 8. Very good. The Packers kicked the week off by beating the Panthers, and the Bears ended the week by throttling the reigning-champion Seahawks. In between, the Lions beat the previously unbeaten Vikings, making a historically competitive division even more competitive.

Through eight weeks, the NFC North as a collective is 22-8. That's not only by far the best in the NFL this season, but the third-best mark by any division through eight weeks since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. Only the 2022 NFC East has been better.

But wait. It gets even more impressive.

• The NFC North is 17-3 against non-division opponents. That the best mark by any division through eight weeks since 1970, not including the strike-impacted 1982 season.
• The last-place Packers have a better record than every team in the NFC East and NFC South and three of the four teams in the NFC West.
• In fact, at 5-3, the Packers have the best record by last-place team in a division through eight weeks since the merger.

All that leads us to this: The NFC North is staring down the distinct possibility of becoming the first division to produce four playoff teams since the 2002 realignment to four divisions within each conference. In fact, if the playoffs started today, the NFC North would have four playoff teams in the playoffs.

Here's what the latest SportsLine projections say about the possibility.

Chance to make playoffs -- NFC North	SportsLine projection	NFC rank
Vikings (6-1)	88%	2nd-highest
Bears (6-2)	87%	3rd-highest
Lions (5-2)	83%	4th-highest
Packers (5-3)	56%	6th-highest

What are the odds the NFC North has four playoff teams?

If we multiply the odds above together, the NFC North's chance to have all four teams in the postseason sits at about 36% -- which is still really, really, historically good. It just shows how hard it is.

The NFC North will need more weeks like Week 8, when the two teams playing outside the division shone while the playoff-hopeful teams outside the division didn't. Think more results like the Cowboys blowing it against the Cardinals and the Seahawks losing to the Bears.

History of four teams from one division making playoffs

When the NFL only had three divisions per conference (1970-2001), three divisions produced four playoff teams in a single season.

Divisions with four playoff teams		Result
1998 AFC East	Jets (2 seed)	L, AFC champ
	Dolphins (4 seed)	L, divisional
	Bills (5 seed)	L, wild card
	Patriots (6 seed)	L, wild card
1997 NFC Central	Packers (2 seed)	L, Super Bowl
	Buccaneers (4 seed)	L, divisional
	Lions (5 seed)	L, wild card
	Vikings (6 seed)	L, divisional
1994 NFC Central	Vikings (3 seed)	L, wild card
	Packers (4 seed)	L, divisional
	Lions (5 seed)	L, wild card
	Bears (6 seed)	L, divisional

So, none of those divisions produced a Super Bowl winner, and only one produced a conference champion. Thirty-ish years later, though, that really shouldn't inform how we view the NFC North teams' chances to win it all. It was a whole different world back then.

Verdict: NFC North has a real shot

Under the current division alignment, having four playoff teams has been possible only since 2020, when the playoffs expanded to seven teams per conference. Since then, seven divisions have produced three playoff teams in a season. But all of those teams had a notable weak link. The excellent NFC North last year had the 3-14 Cardinals. The excellent 2024 NFC North had the 5-12 Bears. the list goes on.

The 2023 AFC North came the closest, with all four teams having winning records but the 9-8 Bengals finishing as the eighth seed in the conference, just barely missing out. The Packers are a historically strong "weak link" as we've already discussed, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to see a scenario in which they -- or another NFC North team -- just miss out.

There's a long way to go. Can the Packers continue to overcome their historic run woes? Green Bay is averaging 60.6 rushing yards per game, on pace to be the worst since the merger. Can Jordan Love and the passing game continue to carry such a heavy load, especially when the weather turns? Can the Vikings continue winning with one of the worst offenses in the NFL? Are the Lions' recent defensive improvements real? Can the Bears live with shaky secondary play? These teams are all quite good; none are perfect.

Still, there's not a ton in the way. The NFC East and NFC South look like one-bid divisions, with the Eagles going through a worst-case scenario year and the Cowboys not far behind. The NFC West has also been quite disappointing. Both the preseason Super Bowl favorites (the Rams) and the reigning champs (the Seahawks) are just 4-4.

Seattle is the real thing standing in the way currently. SportsLine gives the Seahawks a 58% chance to go to the postseason, just ahead of the Packers. The Seahawks do get an easier stretch upcoming to get back on track; NFC North teams will be hoping they stumble against teams such as the Cardinals, Raiders, Cowboys and/or Giants, four of their next five opponents. And of course, it'd be unwise to count out the Rams, who are getting Myles Garrett back to practice this week.

It's clear the NFC North is the dominant division in the NFL in terms of both top-tier contenders and depth. Thirty-five percent doesn't sound great, but the conference as a whole is startlingly thin. Right now, I'd lean toward the NFC North getting all four teams in, but it's a very slight lean. How the Seahawks and the Rams handle the next few weeks will be crucial.