Trump's Iraq withdrawal comes amid war with Iran: 5 things that could change after September 30

For Iraq, the immediate challenge after September 30 will be to maintain security while asserting sovereignty and managing competing relationships with Washington, Tehran and powerful domestic armed groups.

The planned withdrawal of US forces from their remaining bases in Iraq on September 30 marks a major turning point after more than two decades of American military involvement in the country.

The departure was agreed in 2024 under former President Joe Biden and is being carried out by President Donald Trump's administration. While Iran and its allied groups have welcomed the move as a step toward Iraqi sovereignty, Iraqi security officials and analysts have raised concerns about the consequences for the country's security and regional balance.

Here are five things that could change after the US withdrawal.

1. Iran's influence could expand

The departure removes an American military presence that Iraqi security analyst Jasim al-Bahadli described to Reuters as a longstanding counterweight to Tehran's influence.

Iran has welcomed the withdrawal, with Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of Iran's Parliament National Security Commission, saying that "lasting security will prevail in Iraq" once American forces leave Iraq and the wider region.

Iran has long sought the withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East and supports an array of allied armed groups in the region. The US exit from Iraq could therefore give Tehran greater room to strengthen its political and security influence through its Iraqi partners.

2. Iran-backed militias could gain greater room to operate

The withdrawal is also being celebrated by Iran-aligned Iraqi militias.

Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed armed factions, called the US departure a "historic victory" for the groups.

He told Reuters that September 30 would mark the "failure of the occupation to impose its will" on Iraq, arguing that the country's sovereignty should be secured by Iraqis rather than foreign forces.

Al-Bahadli, however, warned that the groups could seek to translate the US departure into greater influence over security and political decision-making.

3. Islamic State could try to exploit security gaps

The US withdrawal could also create concerns about the remaining Islamic State network in Iraq.

Islamic State lost its territorial "caliphate" nearly a decade ago after Iraqi forces, backed by a US-led coalition, fought the group from 2014 to 2017. But the group continues to maintain sleeper cells.

Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani told Reuters that the absence of US intelligence, logistical assistance and drones could provide Islamic State with an opportunity to regroup.

He said Kurdish forces had observed increased movement by Islamic State sleeper cells after news of the planned withdrawal emerged.

Iraqi security forces have also reported that a suspected Islamic State cell was preparing suicide attacks to coincide with the US departure. Colonel Khalid al-Bayati, a senior security official in Kirkuk, said the group was seeking to demonstrate that it remained capable of carrying out deadly attacks.

4. Iraq-US military ties will enter a new phase

The withdrawal does not erase the long history of US-Iraq relations, but it marks the end of a significant phase of direct American military involvement.

The US invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein and withdrew its forces in 2011. American troops returned less than three years later to support Iraqi forces fighting Islamic State.

The relationship subsequently became entangled with US-Iran tensions. In 2020, the US killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a strike near Baghdad's airport, while Iran-backed groups repeatedly attacked American positions in Iraq.

The final withdrawal means Baghdad will have greater responsibility for managing its internal security while balancing its relationships with both Washington and Tehran.

5. The regional security balance could shift

Iraq has occupied a unique position in the Middle East, maintaining close political and military relationships with both the United States and Iran despite their rivalry.

That position has repeatedly made Iraq a battleground for wider regional tensions.

The withdrawal comes as the Middle East is already facing multiple interconnected conflicts. Iran's allies in Iraq have been accused by Washington of supporting attacks linked to the wider regional conflict, including a recent attack on a major Saudi oil pipeline. The Iraqi government has said it is attempting to curb the influence of these armed groups.

The US departure could therefore have consequences beyond Iraq, particularly for Iran, Saudi Arabia and other regional powers.

(With Reuters inputs)

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