Michigan vs. Iowa prediction, odds, time: 2026 Week 4 college football picks by proven model
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The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed its best bets for No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. No. 18 Michigan Wolverines in a Big Ten Saturday matchup
• 2 min read
Undefeated Big Ten teams led by elite defensive units face off in an important Week 4 college football matchup on CBS and Paramount+, as the Michigan Wolverines host the Iowa Hawkeyes. The 18th-ranked Wolverines (3-0) nearly lost to Western Michigan in their opener (officially speaking), but made up for it by beating Oklahoma then rolling UTEP. Sandwiched between blowout shutouts for the 17th-ranked Hawkeyes was a 16-13 victory over in-state rival Iowa State. Michigan lists both starting defensive end Dom Nichols and cornerback Zeke Berry as questionable. Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $50 bonus after $10 in trades:
Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Mich. The Wolverines are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Iowa vs. Michigan odds. The over/under for total points is 38.5, down a point from the opener. Before making any Iowa vs. Michigan picks, check out the Iowa vs. Michigan predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It is off to a profitable 22-19 start on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites so far this season, and it has been upgraded for the 2026 season to better factor in the transfer portal. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Iowa vs. Michigan. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Michigan vs. Iowa:
Iowa vs. Michigan spread | Michigan -5.5 |
Iowa vs. Michigan over/under | 38.5 points |
Iowa vs. Michigan money line | Michigan -218, Iowa +180 |
Iowa vs. Michigan picks | |
Iowa vs. Michigan streaming |
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Top Iowa vs. Michigan predictions
After simulating Michigan vs. Iowa 10,000 times, the SportsLine model is going Over 38.5 points (-111) at betting apps. This is the lowest total of the Week 4 college football odds board. Two of the nation's stingiest defenses meet: Iowa is allowing 4.3 points, Michigan 13.0. The Hawkeyes have allowed fewer yards than anyone.
But given the prowess of the offenses, the model projects more scoring than the oddsmakers believe. Michigan poured in 52 points in its roasting of UTEP in Week 3. Iowa has already tallied 40 and 55 points. The Under has hit in all but one game involving either of these teams, but the model believes this line has overcorrected.
The SportsLine projection model simulations average out to Michigan QB Bryce Underwood throwing for 209 yards and rushing for 29 more. Iowa quarterback Hank Brown goes for 162 pass yards while Kamar Moulton gains 100 more yards on the ground. The model projects 41 combined points as the Over hits in 70% of simulations. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.
How to make Iowa vs. Michigan picks
In addition to going Under on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Iowa vs. Michigan, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 22-19 run on top-rated CFB picks, and find out.
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