Week 4 best bets: Cowboys to bounce back; Josh Downs, Aaron Jones in line for big days
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Using my best Bill Belichick voice, I'd like to formally say we're on to October.
And using my best optimism, I'd like to formally say it's going to be a better month than September. Last week, we went 2-3. Ladd McConkey went over 60 receiving yards, and the Panthers-Browns UNDER hit. I'm especially proud of the latter, because I expected Bryce Young to struggle with the Browns' defense, and he did.
Still, the Commanders stunned the Seahawks, which I never saw coming. The Jameson Williams breakout I predicted didn't quite happen, and a little two-part parlay of Saints (-3) and Chris Olave 6+ receptions only came half-true; the Raiders won a fun one in New Orleans.
But we won't quit. The turnaround is coming. October may end spooky, but it's going to start strong.
Cowboys ML at Texans (+120)
You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who thought the Cowboys and Texans would be a combined 1-5 through three weeks, yet here we are. The Cowboys blew a prime opportunity for a big win last week against the Ravens, while the Texans' offense sputtered again in a one-point loss to the Colts.
I was surprised to see the Texans favored this week, though the game is in Houston. C.J. Stroud getting Nico Collins back helps a lot, but I'm more worried about Quinnen Williams wreaking havoc against Houston's interior offensive line. The Houston defense remains excellent, but it's not playing at near the level it was last year. Dak Prescott and co. bounce back.
Josh Downs 5+ receptions AND 50+ yards (-140)
Last week against one of the best secondaries in football — the Texans — Josh Downs had seven catches for 72 yards. This week, he gets a Commanders secondary that has struggled this season. Washington ranks 30th in passing yards per game allowed and 28th in net yards per attempt.
Not only that, but the Colts will be without Alec Pierce again, which bodes extremely well for Downs' chances for a big day. Since the start of last season, with Daniel Jones on the field, Downs has a 27% target rate and 2.02 yards per target when Pierce has been off the field (compared to 23% and 1.40, respectively).
Kirk Cousins 1+ interceptions (-165)
Kirk Cousins and the Raiders are off to an excellent start this season, and now comes their toughest test yet: the Chiefs. Cousins has three picks on the season, and I think Steve Spagnuolo is going to be pretty aggressive against a non-mobile quarterback who has lost some downfield arm strength. Kansas City's defense has an interception in all three games this year, too.
Jaguars ML at Bengals (+120)
After two excellent weeks, the Bengals' defense looked much more like it did in 2025 in a 30-27 loss to the Steelers in Week 3. Now, we have to wonder whether those first two games were the product of underwhelming opponents — they played the Buccaneers and the Collins-less Texans — or whether the defense can bounce back to that level.
That's not a good question to ask against Trevor Lawrence, who continues to play excellent football, and a Jaguars offense that leads the NFL in rushing EPA. I'm especially interested in how the Bengals defend the middle of the field after they struggled there against Pittsburgh — Aaron Rodgers had 203 passing yards on throws between the numbers. Lawrence has a 133.4 passer rating on throws between the numbers, the third-best number in the NFL, and his five touchdowns on those throws are tied for second-most in the league.
Aaron Jones 50+ rush yards AND anytime touchdown (+102)
We here at the Best Bets column love big workloads, and in the two games since Jordan Mason went down with a thumb injury, Aaron Jones has 45(!) touches. Now he gets a Dolphins defense that has allowed six touchdowns to opposing running backs through three weeks and is currently 31st in defensive rushing success rate. Ashton Jeanty had 147 yards and two touchdowns from scrimmage against this defense; Kenneth Walker had 73 yards and two scores as well. Even Christian McCaffrey, who was kept in check on the ground, finished with 66 yards and two scores. Jones will find the end zone one way or another.
Season record: 6-9
Week 4 picks
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