NFL odds, picks: Texans vs. Titans same-game parlay for historically bad Week 5 matchup
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It's the NFL Winless Bowl when the Texans visit the Titans on CBS Sunday
• 5 min read
I am not particularly in the habit of singling out a pair of winless teams to preview when I look at each Sunday's NFL slate – and I lean toward CBS games if possible. Well, I can assure you that the CBS No. 1 broadcasting team of Jim Nantz and J.J. Watt will not be in Nashville on Sunday when the 0-4 Texans visit the 0-4 Titans in an AFC South matchup. Sign up to wager on NFL games using the BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:
It's an historically bad matchup this decade, so it caught my interest for the 1 p.m. ET kick from Nissan Stadium. That hurricane will impact Nashville a bit, but apparently it will be mostly cleared out by Sunday afternoon, according to weather.com. There are a few showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 72F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%. At -7.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook, there is split ATS action. There's a small lean on Over 37.5.
Texans vs. Titans NFL same-game parlay
- Tennessee +10.5 alternate spread
- Under 44.5 alternate total
FanDuel SGP price: +104
That the rebuilding Titans are winless is not a surprise, but that the Texans are is a shocker. Believe it or not, this marks the NFL's first matchup of 0-4 or worse clubs since 2019 when 0-4 Miami lost 17-16 at home to 0-5 Washington. It's the first divisional game between 0-4 or worse teams since 2004 between Miami and Buffalo.
Many expected the Titans to take a jump this season with a new coaching staff led by head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Tennessee had won just three games in each of the past two years and had a preseason 2026 win total of 6.5 with the Over a slight favorite. That's pretty clearly landing Under now, and the updated win total is 4.5 with the Under at -145.
To be the NFL's last winless team, the Titans are +370 third-favorites behind the Dolphins (+150) and Chargers (+300). If Tennessee doesn't win Sunday, it likely won't until at least Week 7 at home against Cleveland. What I'd be fascinated to see is if the Titans get the No. 1 overall pick in a supposedly quarterback-loaded 2027 NFL Draft. Would they give up on 2025 No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward already or take someone like Ohio State wideout Jeremiah Smith to help?
Ward is now 3-18 as an NFL starter, the third QB ever to start 3-18 or worse through 21 games behind Steve DeBerg (2-19) and Troy Aikman (3-18). It obviously all worked out for Aikman in Dallas. Should the Titans get Smith in the next draft, they might all of a sudden have a scary wide receivers room with rookie Carnell Tate already shining.
Tate, the No. 4 overall pick this year out of Ohio State, has 22 catches for 268 yards, with the yardage total the fourth-most in Titans/Oilers history in a player's first four games. That total is 37% of all Titans receiving yardage this season, the fifth-highest such total in the league. Tate has yet to score his first NFL TD and is +425 to get one Sunday.
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Houston won double-digit games and reached at least the Divisional Round of the playoffs each of the past three seasons but on Sunday, it could become the first team in league history to follow a 10-game winning streak with a six-game skid – including the playoffs. You may remember the 2025 Texans started 0-3 and 3-5 before winning out in the regular season and then won their playoff opener in Pittsburgh before falling in New England.
The Texans are only the seventh team all-time and first since the 2012 Saints to start 0-4 after at least a 12-win season and the second team to start 0-4 after winning a playoff game in three straight seasons after the 1987 Giants. The 1992 Chargers are the lone team to reach the playoffs following a 0-4 start. In the preseason, Houston was -190 for the playoffs and is now +240, a probability change of minus-40.5%. To be the last winless team, it is the +1500 longshot.
The thing is, DeMeco Ryans' team isn't far from being 3-1 as it led in the final five minutes in three of its games. Houston is the fourth club in the past 35 years to blow a lead in the final five minutes of three of its first four games. The last to do so was the 2018 Falcons, who finished 7-9. Overall, the Texans have been within one score (eight points or fewer) of their opponent 85% of the time this season. Only the Chiefs have a higher rate.
C.J. Stroud was not signed to a long-term extension before the season and he's playing great, averaging 285.3 passing yards with five pass TDs and zero picks. Those are the fifth-most yards and second-best TD-INT ratio in the league entering Week 5. Stroud's 1,141 passing yards are the seventh-most by a QB on a team to start 0-4. Houston is the first club to start 0-4 without throwing an interception.
The issue has been what was the NFL's No. 1 total and scoring defense last year as the Texans are 0-2 when scoring at least 30 points compared to 10-0 when doing so in Ryans' first three seasons. Houston is tied for 26th in scoring defense at 27.3 PPG after allowing an average of only 20.0 PPG in the first three seasons under Ryans – he announced Wednesday that he would take over defensive play-calling from coordinator Matt Burke.
That unit has already allowed more games with 30+ points this season (two) than last (one). Tennessee hasn't scored 20 points in a game yet and the team total is set at a comically low Over/Under of 14.5 points.
Houston's Pro Bowl cornerback combination of Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter is allowing 9.5 yards per attempt in coverage this year compared to 6.6 in 2025. Tate might have a big day as the Texans have allowed 830 yards to receivers this season, which is second-most in the NFL.
The Texans have won five straight road games in this series, the third-longest active head-to-head divisional road winning streak in the league. Week 5 is usually when the club gets going as it is 18-8 SU and 15-10-1 ATS in Weeks 5-18 over the past three seasons compared to 4-8 SU and 1-11 ATS in Weeks 1-4. Tennessee is on a 10-game divisional losing streak overall, losing by an average of 15.8 points and covering the spread just once.
You know how rare it is for a home team to lose by more than 10 points? In a divisional game? I do expect Houston to pull this out but certainly not in blowout fashion. And it should be a slog. The SportsLine Projection Model has Texans by a score of 27-18, and I don't think there will be that many points scored. At 44.5, at least I am above the likes of a 24-20 final. It's not the best parlay price, but I'll always take plus-money. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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