Chinese construction on Antelope Reef gathering pace

RUNWAY: Analysts said the first aircraft landing is expected by the middle of next year, while Chinese state media said it would serve civilian needs

Chinese construction of a runway on Antelope Reef (Lingyang Reef, 羚羊礁) in the Paracel Islands (Xisha Islands, 西沙群島), is well under way with analysts estimating it could be completed by the middle of next year, strengthening Beijing’s military control over the disputed South China Sea.

Satellite images reviewed by Reuters show grading work, piles of gravel and concrete, and compaction cranes in operation to build a full-scale runway that military attaches and security analysts say could be one of China’s most important offshore bases in the region.

The images, taken on Friday last week by commercial satellite imagery provider Vantor, also show a fully loaded gravel barge heading to a newly built wharf.

A graphic shows China’s reclamation efforts on Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands as of Feb. 7 this year.

Photo: Screengrab from Damien Symon’s Instagram

A completed base at Antelope would be China’s most significant military expansion in the South China Sea in a decade, extending the reach of Chinese naval ships and military aircraft in a waterway that is an increasingly militarized arena of competition between Beijing and the US and its allies over Taiwan.

“If Fiery Cross [Yongshu Reef, 永暑礁] is the guide, I’d expect the runway paved in the first half of 2027 and a first landing by mid-2027, possibly earlier,” said Ben Lewis, founder of the open-source data platform PLATracker, referring to a 3km runway built on a reef in the disputed Spratly Islands (Nansha Islands, 南沙群島) further south in 2015.

“They’ve had 10 years to get faster at this,” he said.

Lewis said he had yet to note signs of excavation for possible ammunition and fuel storage, which a base of this scale would need.

The Chinese Ministry of National Defense did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

China has yet to acknowledge construction of a new military base, while state media have said Antelope would serve civilian needs, such as weather forecasting and maritime and scientific research.

Vantor imagery analysts and open-source intelligence tracker Damien Symon, who first highlighted dredging at the reef in early January, also described the cranes as ones used to compact reclaimed or loose earth into foundations before paving.

In the northern part of the South China Sea, a future Antelope base would help extend deployments of a wide range of Chinese naval ships and military aircraft and help protect the approaches to Hainan Island, where China keeps its nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines.

Reuters reported in late August that new installations have been sighted on a smaller islet near Antelope, but analysts have yet to gauge definitively the likely function of the three-pronged construction on Yagong Island (鴨公島).

The entire Paracels is also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam. Taiwan’s defense and foreign ministries, as well as Vietnam’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters’ questions.

The progress on Antelope comes as China this week confirmed the creation of a new joint military support facility in Laos that could deepen Beijing’s presence in Southeast Asia.