Sharpest home loan drop on record as property investors exit market

The number of new home loans plummeted through the middle of this year, especially for property investors, as rate hikes and tax changes cooled the housing market.

The total number of loans fell 15 per cent, and their total value dropped 16 per cent from June to September, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

New loans for investors fell by 31 per cent and by 5 per cent for those buying for themselves.

Both the overall and investor drop broke official records.

Mish Tan, the head of finance statistics at the bureau, said the data suggested investors were being deterred not just by high rates but by "tax changes and expectations of lower house prices".

Conditions in the housing market were weak before the May budget, when the federal government unveiled plans to curb property investor tax breaks, but have deteriorated markedly since that time and spread beyond Melbourne and Sydney to other capitals.

Nationwide, house prices have fallen 6.7 per cent from their peak in March, the fastest decline in the past 40 years according to property data company Cotality. The rate of auction clearances has also fallen.

The opposition and property groups have blamed the figures on the negative gearing and capital gains tax changes.

Liberal housing spokesperson Andrew Bragg said the deterioration showed confidence in the market had tanked and argued, "Loans to everyone are down. No-one wins from these crazy taxes."

But Housing Minister Clare O'Neil welcomed the fact that homebuyers fared better than investors in the data, saying this was what the tax changes were meant to achieve.

"Volumes are down, as you would expect in a period where prices are softening. But these figures also clearly show a strong shift away from investors and towards Australians buying a home to live in," she said.

Reserve Bank says tax changes playing a role

Economists say five rate hikes this year, which have taken rates to their highest level since 2008, have contributed to the fall.

But Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock said investor demand had fallen "so much further" than in previous rate-hiking cycles.

"[That] suggests that there's something else going here, and the something else going on is the tax changes," she said. Her comments did not mention owner-occupiers, suggesting only that the tax changes were affecting investor demand.

Treasury analysis, which underpinned the government's changes, predicted a modest decline of two percentage points in house price growth. Treasury has described this figure as a "structural" forecast, not a short-term one factoring in rate hikes.

But while Treasury and the government have stuck by the forecast in public, there is private recognition within government that the scale of the fall is deeper than was expected.

Housing minister says 'balance is shifting'

While government ministers have been eager to emphasise they do not want prices to fall as such, and are not targeting a given price with their policy, they have framed their tax changes as a deliberate strategy to advantage homebuyers over investors.

"We've had a housing market geared towards investors for a generation, and where did it get us? Plummeting home ownership, out-of-control house price increases, and a generation losing hope," Ms O'Neil told the ABC.

"These numbers show the balance is shifting back towards Australians who are buying a home to live in, and especially to our first home buyers."

First homebuyers fared worse than non-first homebuyers, with an 8 per cent fall compared to a 3.5 per cent fall, but much better than investors.

Mr Bragg said the results reflected poorly on the government.

"People would look at what Clare O'Neil says and think, well, what planet is she living on? Why is she saying that fewer loans is good? Fewer loans is bad. We need to see more lending, because if we have more lending, then we have more houses," he said.

Appearing at the National Press Club to discuss building industry corruption, Master Builders Australia chief executive Denita Wawn said the results vindicated the property sector's campaign against the budget tax changes.

"I hate to say it, but we were right … We called it out, a decline in investment in housing, whether it's owner occupiers or investors, at a time when we can least afford it," she said.