What to expect from weather, tropical cyclone formations in October

MANILA, Philippines — The state weather bureau has issued the weather conditions and tropical cyclone formations expected for October this year. 

In the 5 a.m. weather forecast of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) on Thursday, weather specialist Leanne Loreto discussed the looming termination of the southwest monsoon or habagat, the prevailing effects of the El Niño, and the possible formation of two tropical cyclones.

Loreto said that the habagat season may end by the first part of the month and will be replaced by the northeast monsoon or amihan.

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READ: ‘Very strong El Niño’ to persist in PH until early 2027 – Pagasa

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“Pagtapos ng habagat ay magsisimula na yung transition period towards the amihan or northeast monsoon. Itong northeast monsoon ay maaaring magsimula o yung onset nito sa pangalawang bahagi ng buwan ng Oktubre,” Loreto said. 

(After the habagat, there will be a transition period towards the amihan or northeast monsoon. The onset of the northeast monsoon may begin on the second part of October.)

While the presence of amihan signifies cool season, Loreto noted that the prevailing El Niño conditions may affect the temperature. Pagasa earlier said that a very strong El Niño may emerge between September and December and is likely to persist until early 2027. 

Aside from this, Loreto said that two tropical cyclones may enter the country this month, and will be named Rosal and Samuel. She also said that tropical cyclones have a high chance of making landfall in Luzon and Visayas during this month. 

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READ: Tropical storm’s trough to affect parts of Visayas, Mindanao Thursday

“Dahil active ang El Niño at inaasahang lalakas sa susunod na buwan, maaaring maapektuhan ng El Niño phase ang magiging kalagayan ng ating panahon and yung frequency and behavior ng bagyo,” she added. 

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(Because El Niño is expected to intensify in the coming months, the El Niño phase may affect our weather conditions and the frequency and behavior of tropical cyclones.)

She also shared that intertropical convergence zone or the convergence of winds from the northern and southern hemispheres, and easterlies or the warm winds coming from the Pacific Ocean may possibly bring rains over parts of the country this month. /jpv