CFP top 12 projection: Flawed Texas finding a way

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The SEC is still in a position to get two first-round byes, earn the most playoff bids, and reassert itself with a national champion for the first time in three seasons.

It just won't be LSU. Or Kentucky.

Texas, for all of its flaws, found a way to beat a CFP Top 25 team -- again -- with its 22-21 come-from-behind win at LSU, eliminating the four-loss Tigers from any lingering hopes of playing their way back into the conversation. Quarterback Arch Manning put together an underwhelming performance, completing just 19 of 35 passes for 174 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions.

But he again made that one play that changed the game and in turn cemented the Longhorns' place in the playoff race barring a catastrophic upset over the next two weeks. And with Kentucky's home loss to Florida, the Wildcats are likely to drop out of the committee's third ranking, opening the door for ...

Wake Forest? Iowa? Oregon?

The SEC could "only" have four teams in the committee's top 12 on Tuesday night, and the mighty Big Ten is down to two, which opens the door for another conference to make a move. This could be one of the most varied fields in playoff history, with two ACC teams, two Big 12 teams, two Big Ten teams, Notre Dame and Boise State.

How do they all stack up after the Week 11 results?

Based on what the committee did in its second ranking, plus historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here's a look at what the selection committee might do if the rankings were today.

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Projecting the top 12

1. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1)

Why they could be here: The Bulldogs had no trouble dismantling Missouri on Saturday, jumping out to a 31-7 halftime lead, which should only further cement their spot as the committee's top team. "The committee is very high on Georgia," committee chair Hunter Yurachek said following the group's second ranking. "They've got great analytics. But I think more than that, just watching that team and how they function defensively, what Gunner Stockton means to that team offensively. That's just a really complete team that the committee is very high on." Georgia entered Week 11 ranked No. 2 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric, trailing only undefeated UCLA, and ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies, according to ESPN Analytics. Wins at Alabama and Ole Miss have helped offset the Oct. 17 home loss to Auburn.

Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify dropping the Bulldogs after their convincing win against Mizzou, unless enough people thought Utah's undefeated résumé is now worth the top spot.

Need to know: There's a new advantage this year to earning the No. 1 seed. On Selection Day, the No. 1 seed gets to choose its CFP quarterfinal bowl. It will also pick the CFP semifinal bowl it would advance to with a quarterfinal win.The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in nearby Atlanta is hosting a quarterfinal this year. Georgia would then choose between the Orange Bowl and Sugar Bowl for a semifinal.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 at South Carolina. The Gamecocks had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday at Arkansas, but are notorious for playing the role of spoiler. If quarterback LaNorris Sellers (ankle) returns to the starting lineup, it becomes a bigger challenge for Georgia's defense.

2. Utah Utes (10-0)

Why they could be here: If the selection committee didn't think undefeated Utah was better than one-loss Georgia a week ago, it's unlikely a road win at Arizona will change that in the third ranking. More likely, the Utes solidified their spot as the committee's top undefeated team, still ahead of UCLA, in large part because of back-to-back wins against CFP Top 25 teams. Utah's strength of schedule is No. 67, according to ESPN Analytics, but that hasn't held the Utes back yet.

Why they could be lower: The Utes' back-to-back wins against Houston and Cincinnati at the end of October have been devalued after Houston lost at Colorado and Cincy has now lost five of its past six games.

Need to know: If the Utes run the table but lose in the Big 12 title game and finish as a one-loss runner up, they will still finish in the top 12, but they might take a significant tumble. The committee would compare them with other one-loss teams, and the Utes could fall behind Miami, especially if the Canes add the ACC title to their résumé.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 at TCU. Both TCU and West Virginia are 5-5, so having to play a second straight road game is more challenging. The Utes will have a short week to prepare for their Friday night home game against West Virginia. ESPN's FPI gives Utah a 73.5% chance to win at TCU and a 91.9% chance to beat West Virginia.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2)

Why they could be here: The Tide's win against Vandy won't do much to improve its place in the pecking order, but Alabama established itself in the room with four "really good wins in the view of the committee," Yurachek said. Wins at LSU, at Kentucky, against South Carolina and at Mississippi State have earned the Tide the top two-loss spot. All four of those teams, though, lost on Saturday. The Sept. 12 win at Kentucky lost some of its luster after the Wildcats lost at home to Florida. South Carolina lost to Arkansas, as that was also another win the committee used to help justify Alabama's position. And LSU will likely fall out of the top 25 after its home loss to Texas. The committee isn't penalizing Alabama for its 20-17 home loss to Georgia on Oct. 10, nor has it held the Tide back for its 16-point head-to-head loss at Tennessee the following week.

Why they could be lower: Saturday's win against Vandy wasn't pretty. Alabama was held to just 92 rushing yards, had two turnovers, and held a precarious 7-3 halftime lead against a team that has now lost six of its past seven games. With Saturday's win at LSU, Texas now has a résumé worthy of consideration for the committee's top two-loss team. The Longhorns haven't played as consistently well as Alabama has, though.

Need to know: Alabama is No. 1 in ESPN's strength of schedule metric, No. 3 in overall efficiencies, and No. 5 in Strength of Record. Georgia is the only SEC team, though, that can clinch a spot in the SEC championship game in Week 12.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Auburn. Alabama will host Chattanooga on Saturday before ending the regular season at home against rival Auburn.

4. UCLA Bruins (10-0)

Why they could be here: The Bruins are No. 1 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric and remained undefeated following Friday night's 22-14 win against Illinois. They added a boost to their résumé by beating another Power 4 opponent over .500. Yurachek said the committee has rewarded the Bruins for their undefeated record and their defense, which has been "steady and really dominant all season." He also pointed to their established running game, and improved quarterback play. The Oct. 10 win at Oregon continues to increase in value as the Ducks creep up the CFP Top 25, but the Nov. 7 win at Minnesota also impressed the committee. UCLA beat the Gophers on the road, while Indiana needed a 60-yard field goal and overtime to beat Minnesota at home. "That's a Minnesota team that had beaten Iowa on that same field," Yurachek said. "UCLA winning there looked like the No. 4-ranked team in the country winning that game by two scores."

Why they could be lower: The only reason UCLA would sink after its win is if the committee rewarded Texas for its overall résumé. The Longhorns aren't ranked as high as UCLA in ESPN's Strength of Record metric, but their schedule has been much more difficult (No. 12 vs. No. 65). UCLA's best win was Oct. 10 at Oregon, while Texas has three SEC road wins that were CFP Top 25 opponents at the time.

Need to know: ESPN's FPI gives UCLA less than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, at Michigan and against USC. The chances of UCLA finishing the regular season with one loss or undefeated is 21.1%.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. USC. The Bruins get their crosstown rivals at home, and the Trojans are ranked inside the top 20 of ESPN's FPI while Michigan is outside the top 30.

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1)

Why they could be here: Saturday's lopsided win against a now six-loss Boston College team isn't going to help the Irish, but they didn't do anything to hurt their standing as a playoff contender, either. The Irish left no doubt they were the better team, and it helped that Miami also beat Duke, further legitimizing the weight of Notre Dame's Nov. 7 win against the Canes. The Oct. 17 loss at BYU falls under the category of "good loss," especially considering how close it was and that the Cougars should remain a top-10 team following Saturday's win against Baylor. Notre Dame is 1-1 against CFP Top 25 opponents, and has four wins against Power 4 teams .500 or better.

Why they could be lower: Some committee members could reward Texas for its overall résumé, which now includes five wins against CFP Top 25 teams following Saturday's win at LSU. The question is if they value the Longhorns' résumé more than what they see on film from the Irish -- a consistently more complete team.

Need to know: Notre Dame is just out of range of a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds, but it's still in position to host a first-round home game. With games remaining against SMU and Syracuse, it will be hard for the committee to justify moving Notre Dame up at this point without an upset happening above the Irish.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 vs. SMU. The Mustangs just got hammered at home, 49-7, by Wake Forest. Notre Dame should be a heavy favorite, but SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings could at least present a few problems to keep the Irish defense honest.

6. Texas Longhorns (8-2)

Why they could be here: Texas continues to win in spite of itself. The Longhorns have one of the best résumés in the country -- regardless of record -- with wins against Ohio State, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri, and now LSU. Three of those five wins were on the road. The irony is that Texas hasn't played as consistently well as the teams ranked ahead of it, though. Quarterback Arch Manning threw a career-high three interceptions against LSU, and averaged just 5 yards per completion. He also had a career-high eight off-target throws. The Longhorns were held to under 100 rushing yards. But Manning was spot-on with the game-winning touchdown pass.

Why they could be higher: Even with two losses, Texas has a stronger collection of statement wins than both undefeated UCLA and one-loss Notre Dame. Florida also helped Texas a little bit with its upset of No. 11 Kentucky, as one of the Longhorns' two losses was to the Gators. Texas also got some help from Ohio State, as the Buckeyes snapped their two-game losing streak with a win against Northwestern, preserving the value of the Longhorns' Week 2 win.

Need to know: Georgia and Alabama are still the most likely participants in the SEC championship game, according to ESPN Analytics -- and Texas won't have faced either one of them during the regular season. Texas, though, can still reach the SEC title game with some help. The simplest path would be for Texas to win its last two games and have Alabama lose at least once. Ohio State could technically reach the Big Ten championship game with help, which means the Longhorns could still wind up with a win against the eventual Big Ten champs.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 27 at Texas A&M. The Longhorns' toughest games are behind them, as Arkansas and Texas A&M are a combined 8-12. Arkansas is coming off a confidence-building win against South Carolina while the Aggies have come unraveled with three straight losses. The only difference here is that Texas will have to A&M.

7. Miami Hurricanes (9-1)

Why they could be here: The Canes held off a respectable Duke team that was gunning for its former quarterback, Darian Mensah, and one of its top former receivers, Cooper Barkate. Miami's talent outweighed Duke's emotion and preparation in the Canes' second audition for the committee without injured top receiver Malachi Toney.

"We still have a lot of respect for Miami," Yurachek said following the second ranking. "They have a lot of talent. Their offense seemed to find their way ... a lot of talent on that team with or without Malachi Toney."

Why they could be higher: Duke is a 7-3 team that should boost Miami's résumé a bit, and the Canes entered the game with the No. 3 Strength of Record, according to ESPN Analytics. Miami's only loss was on the road to Notre Dame, which took care of business on Saturday against Boston College.

Need to know: No team in the country has a better chance to reach its respective conference championship game. ESPN's FPI gives Miami at least a 95% chance to win each of its remaining games against Virginia Tech and Boston College.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 vs. Virginia Tech. The Canes will have ended their season with three straight home games, and beating Duke was the greatest hurdle. Now the Hokies are the only opponent above .500 left.

8. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2)

Why they could be here: The Vols' defense was the difference in Saturday's win against unranked Texas A&M, which dropped to 4-6 with the loss. Tennessee's best wins are Oct. 17 vs. Alabama and Nov. 7 vs. Kentucky, but the Wildcats might drop out of the top 12 following Saturday's home loss to Florida. Yurachek said last week it was hard for the committee to find a third great win for the Vols, and Saturday at Texas A&M wasn't it, given the Aggies have now lost four of their past five games. The committee has separated Alabama and Tennessee by their résumés -- not the head-to-head result. "You have to search a little deeper to find their next best win," Yurachek said. "We feel like Alabama now has four really good wins. That's been the separator, and kept them from having that side-by-side comparison right now in our rankings."

Why they could be lower: The committee could bump up Indiana after its win against USC, especially after the Vols struggled offensively against Texas A&M. The Aggies led 7-6 at the half and Tennessee needed five field goals to win.

Need to know: Tennessee might not be able to withstand a home loss to LSU in Week 12 after the Tigers were knocked out of the playoff race following their loss to Texas. Now that LSU has four losses, it could drop out of the CFP's top 25, and a home loss to an unranked opponent could be the dagger that drops the Vols out -- and pushes a bubble team like Wake Forest in.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 vs. LSU. This will be the Vols' last chance to beat an opponent over .500, and it will come against a common opponent with Alabama. The Tide cemented its spot as the committee's top two-loss team with its 31-13 drubbing of LSU on Nov. 7.

9. Indiana Hoosiers (9-1)

Why they could be here: Indiana's win on Saturday against USC was its first against a CFP Top 25 opponent, which is why it could be tough for the Hoosiers to jump up. Tennessee's wins against Alabama and Kentucky trump Indiana's best wins. Still, the committee has rewarded Indiana for a 5-1 record against Big Ten opponents that are .500 or better. The committee also respects Indiana's defense, which is one of the best in the country. The Hoosiers had three takeaways against USC and limited the Trojans to under 100 rushing yards. IU's offense has struggled, though, in five straight games, and quarterback Grant Wilson was inconsistent in his first start.

Why they could be higher: Indiana has won three straight since its narrow home loss to Ohio State on Oct. 17. The committee initially ranked IU No. 4 and indicated at that time it appreciated the Hoosiers' ability to find ways to win in spite of its average offense, which ranks outside of the top 15 in efficiency, according to ESPN Analytics.

Need to know: The Hoosiers have now trailed or been tied at halftime in three straight home games -- a stark difference from the first 19 home games under coach Curt Cignetti, when IU had the halftime lead in every game. The Hoosiers are still on track, though, to face UCLA in the Big Ten title game.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 at Washington. It's the last road trip of the season for the Hoosiers, and the only remaining game against an opponent .500 or better.

10. BYU Cougars (8-2)

Why they could be here: The Cougars earned a respectable win against Baylor (6-4) on Saturday, and their résumé is also boosted by wins against Notre Dame and Arizona. The committee didn't punish BYU too much in its second ranking for losing on the road to in-state rival Utah, and the statement win against the Irish continues to be one of the best in the country. The Oct. 24 loss at UCF is still a stain on the résumé, though, as the Knights have lost four of their past six games.

Why they could be lower: It's hard to make a case for BYU dropping after a win, especially with its win against Notre Dame.

Need to know: If BYU runs the table and doesn't play in the Big 12 title game, it can still get in with the conference champion. Which is why it might actually be a better path for the Cougars to not qualify for it, and just sit and watch in a comfortable spot while Utah and Texas Tech go at it. While the Big 12 champion is guaranteed a bid, BYU would get knocked out of the playoff as a three-loss runner-up with a second loss to Utah. The same thing happened to BYU last year, when it lost twice to Texas Tech and was eliminated from the playoff following its loss to the Red Raiders in the Big 12 title game.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Cincinnati. BYU's final two opponents, Kansas and Cincinnati, are a combined 9-11. Cincinnati has lost five of its past six games, but that lone win was against Texas Tech.

11. Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-1)

Why they could be here: The Red Raiders won against the committee's No. 25-ranked team, Oklahoma State, which will be considered impressive while simultaneously knocking the Cowboys out of the group's ranking. The Red Raiders moved up in the second ranking in part by default. "They benefited from some teams losing above them," Yuracheck said.

Why they could be lower: Texas Tech's narrow 28-26 Sept. 18 home win against Houston took a hit after the Cougars' 42-32 loss at 4-6 Colorado on Friday. The Red Raiders' Oct. 24 loss at Cincinnati now looks even worse after the Bearcats have since lost three straight.

Need to know: Texas Tech only has one conference loss, so it still has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game, where it is most likely to face Utah. The Utes remain the favorite to win the Big 12, and if the Red Raiders are ranked in the No. 11 or No. 12 spots, it will be tough for them to survive a second loss unless other upsets happen around them.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 at Baylor. It's the last road trip of the season, and the 6-3 Bears have won two of their last three games.

12. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-1)

Why they could be here: Saturday's resounding win against SMU plus Kentucky's loss makes Wake Forest seemingly impossible for the committee to ignore. The Demon Deacons are reminiscent of last year's Indiana team -- defeating opponents soundly and consistently. Since the start of October, Wake Forest is winning by 45.8 points per game, the best in the FBS. The Deacs have outscored their opponents 145-0 in the first half in the past four games -- the third-largest differential over a four-game span by an FBS team in the past 20 seasons, according to ESPN Research. Wake Forest also became the first team in ACC history to score at least 40 points and allow fewer than 10 points in four straight games. Their only loss was on Sept. 18 to Miami, 33-20.

Why they could be lower: The Deacs entered Week 11 with the No. 59 strength of schedule and were No. 18 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric. Some of the eye-popping stats on offense are boosted by the recent 77-0 drubbing of Merrimack, an FCS school. Wake Forest also needed double overtime to beat Purdue, which dropped to 3-7 after Saturday's loss to Iowa.

Need to know: When asked this past week what teams like Wake Forest and Texas Tech can do to improve their stock, Yurachek said, "keep winning football games and hope there's some movement above them." The Deacs checked both of those boxes on Saturday.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Duke. ESPN's FPI gives Wake Forest at least a 71% chance to win each of its remaining games, including Saturday at Georgia Tech.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 2 Utah (Big 12 champ)
No. 3 Alabama
No. 4 UCLA (Big Ten champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 18 and 19

No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Texas
No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Tennessee

Quarterfinal games

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.

No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 4 UCLA
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Miami winner vs. No. 2 Utah
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Tennessee winner vs. No. 1 Georgia