Israel Election 2026: Pollster Shmuel Rosner says Israelis have already made up their minds

With less than a week until Israelis vote, Benjamin Netanyahu has come back to mainstream television studios carrying a fresh, effusive endorsement from President Trump.

On this episode of The Deep Dive, host Jacob asks Shmuel Rosner, a JPPI senior fellow and Channel 13 election pollster, whether any of that can still move votes. His answer is blunt. After the judicial overhaul fight of 2023, October 7, and the long wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and with Iran, most Israelis already know what they want. Any last-minute shifts will happen inside the political blocs, not across them.

He argues that Netanyahu's late blitz is not a play for 61 seats. It is a defensive move meant to stop the opposition from forming a viable coalition, which would force yet another election in six months, one in which the prime minister might get luckier.

The conversation then turns to the scenarios likely to dominate the morning after. Rosner explains why a minority government backed by a 57–50 split is a very different thing from one resting on 52–51. He also covers how far President Herzog can actually push the rival camps toward the unity government many Israelis say they want. And he describes the one arrangement that could appeal to nearly everyone except one man: a plea deal that lets Netanyahu step aside. He takes on the theory that a post-election flare-up with Iran could be used to herd rivals into an emergency government.

Here, he points out that the opposition has already watched that approach play out twice, first with Benny Gantz and then after October 7. He also offers a clear explanation of Trump's endorsement: it carries no risk for Trump. If Netanyahu wins, Trump can collect on it, and if he loses, the winner will still need Washington.

The last striking moments

The most striking moments come near the end. Asked about warnings over election integrity and comparisons to America's January 6, Rosner defends Israel's voting system as one of the few institutions the public still trusts. He warns that leaders who spread false claims about the count would be creating a dangerous moment for the country's democracy.

He also offers a provocative thought about the stakes. Whether this vote really is the most important in Israel's history, he suggests, depends on its outcome, and the stakes are not equal for both sides. For many opposition voters, he believes, another term for the current coalition would be a crisis of identity and of attachment to the country itself.