5 bold predictions for second half of season: Packers take NFC North; Seahawks, Rams miss playoffs
• 8 min read
The second half of the NFL season kicked off on Thursday night, and now that we've hit the back half of the schedule, we're officially on the path to Super Bowl LXI in Los Angeles.
There were quite a few surprises during the first half of the season, including the Browns making it to November with a winning record and the Vikings finishing as the NFL's final undefeated team. As we get ready to head down the stretch, there will probably be a few more surprises, and I'm here to tell you what those surprises are going to be. I'll be making five bold predictions for the second half of the season.
So what's in store for the next nine weeks? Let's get to the predictions.
1. Rams and Seahawks BOTH miss the playoffs
If someone had made this prediction back in August, they probably would have been laughed off the Internet, but now, it seems like a very real possibility. The Seahawks are the defending champs and the Rams were the preseason Super Bowl favorites, and neither team has quite lived up to the hype.
The surging Rams (5-4) have won three games in a row, but they just lost Puka Nacua to injury, and if you throw in the fact that Davante Adams is also hurt, it's getting to the point where Matthew Stafford might have to throw passes to himself. The Rams have the fourth-most difficult remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, with games still to come against the 49ers, Packers and Chiefs.
As for the Seahawks, quarterback play has hampered their season, and it doesn't look like things are going to get much better on that front. Sam Darnold has struggled all year, and to make matters worse, he's been banged up. Drew Lock has been serviceable during his time on the field, but he doesn't exactly make you feel good about this offense. It's hard to see the QB spot improving, and if it doesn't, the Seahawks could end up missing the playoffs.
Oh, and there's one more thing: These two teams still have to play each other twice, with both games coming over the final three weeks of the season. If one team sweeps that series, that will pretty much eliminate the other team. If they split the series, both teams would have to go at least 5-2 in their seven other games just to get to 10-7. In the NFC this year, there's no guarantee that 10-7 is going to get in the playoffs.
2. Packers win the NFC North
If you look at the NFC North odds right now, the Packers are currently viewed as the long shot to win the division (odds via DraftKings):
The oddsmakers have given up on the Packers, but I have not. Despite having almost no rushing attack, Jordan Love and the Packers have gotten hot over the past few weeks by winning five of their past six games. Their only loss in that span came against the Lions in a 20-17 game where Trey Smack became the first kicker in eight years to miss two field goals from inside 35 yards in a single game. They were a bad kicking performance away from pulling out the win.
On Love's end, he's playing some of the best football of his career. As a matter of fact, he's been so good that CBS Sports NFL Writer Garrett Podell argued this week that Love is the NFL's midseason MVP. On top of that, the Packers defense has been playing at an incredibly high level, and that unit is only going to get better with the expected return of Micah Parsons, which will likely come in Week 12.
Based on how the division has played out this year, the Packers (6-3) will likely have to go 7-1 down the stretch, and this team is talented enough to pull that off.
3. Christmas miracle: Broncos earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC for second straight year
As things currently stand, the 7-1 Bills have control over the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but I think the Broncos eventually catch them. Not only that, but I think the top seed ends up being decided on Christmas Day in Denver when the Broncos host the Bills. The winner of that game will pick up the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker, and if it's the Broncos, they already have a win over the Jaguars, giving them a head-to-head win over two of the AFC's top teams.
Not to mention, the Broncos have already beaten the Chiefs once, and they could add a head-to-head win over the Steelers when they play Pittsburgh on Black Friday.
The biggest advantage for the Broncos (7-2) is that they have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule at .426. Of their eight remaining games, they still get to play the Chargers, Dolphins, Jets and Raiders (twice). If they win those five games, that gets them to 12 wins, and at that point, a 14-3 season becomes very possible. I think that would be enough to get them the No. 1 seed for the second straight year. If that happens, it would mark just the second time in franchise history that the Broncos have been the top seed in back-to-back seasons.
4. New NFL low: A 6-11 team wins the NFC South and an 11-6 team gets left out of the playoffs
If you're wondering what it might take for the NFL to change its playoff format, this might do it.
Heading into Week 10, all four teams in the NFC South have exactly three wins. The Saints and Panthers are technically tied for first place at 3-5 with the Falcons and Buccaneers right behind them at 3-6. There's a very real chance that the winner of this division ends up with a 6-11 record. For that NOT to happen, the Panthers or Saints would have to go at least 4-5 down the stretch, and I'm not sure either team is capable of doing that. The Bucs or Falcons could also get to seven wins, but they have an even smaller margin of error: If they want to get to 7-10, they'll have to go 4-4 down the stretch.
The Panthers and Saints actually play each other in Week 10, so one of those teams will be getting to four wins on Sunday. Even taking that into account, I'm not fully convinced we're going to see either one of them win seven games.
If we don't count the NFL's strike years (1982, 1987), there have been just three teams in NFL history that won their division with seven wins, but NO TEAM has ever won a division with six wins.
If that happens in the NFC South and we also see the NFC East produce a division winner with a bad record, that will pave the way for an 11-6 to possibly get left out of the playoffs. There's a very real chance that every team in the NFC North is going to hit 11 wins, and it won't be surprising if the Seahawks or Rams also hit 11 wins. If you take out the NFC North winner, that leaves four or five 11-win teams battling for three playoff spots.
Since the NFL expanded to a 16-game schedule in 1978, there have only been two instances when an 11-win team missed the playoffs: the 1985 Broncos and the 2008 Patriots. In both instances, there was a division winner that made the playoffs without finishing above .500 (8-8 Browns in 1985, 8-8 Chargers in 2008), and that's what we're likely going to see here.
If a six-win NFC South team ends up winning the division and hosting a playoff game, the NFL might have to go back to the drawing board with its playoff format. In early 2025, the Lions offered a proposal to change the seeding in the playoffs, basing the seeding on each team's final record.
All four division winners would still have gotten in under this proposal, but they wouldn't have been guaranteed a home game. If this prediction pans out, the league might have to revisit the proposal during the upcoming offseason.
5. Shane Steichen becomes the first NFL coach to be fired
The most surprising part of the NFL season so far might be the fact that we still haven't seen a head coach get fired. The last time we made it this deep into the season without a coaching change came all the way back in 2017, when we didn't get our first one until December.
This year, it feels like there are several head coaches on the hot seat heading into the second half of the season, including Steichen, Dan Quinn, Aaron Glenn, Nick Sirianni and you could probably even throw in Jim Harbaugh and Brian Schottenheimer.
When you look at that list, it feels like Steichen has the best chance of being fired first. For one, Colts owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon has already proven that she's willing to fire someone after dumping GM Chris Ballard in October.
At 2-7, it's been an ugly year for the Colts, and they have an upcoming schedule that's built for a firing:
Week 10: Dolphins
Week 11: at Texans
Week 12: Giants
Week 13: Bye
If the Colts lose to the 1-7 Dolphins, Irsay-Gordon might just decide to pull the trigger and ax Steichen. Even if they win, Steichen might not be safe. If the Colts go 1-2 over the next three weeks and enter their bye at 3-9, Irsay-Gordon might decide to let him go then.
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