El Nino mostly to blame for Indonesia’s wildfires, researchers say

A firefighter battles a fast-moving brush fire amidst heavy smoke in Tegal Arum, Banjarbaru, South Kalimantan, on October 20, 2026. — AFP pic

First Published: Friday, 13 Nov 2026 9:26 AM MYT

JAKARTA, Nov 13 — Wildfires that consumed vast swathes of Indonesia this year were driven largely by a strong El Nino, fuelled by climate change and decades of natural landscape destruction, researchers said today.

El Nino was largely to blame for an extreme lack of rainfall in the Southeast Asian archipelago from July to October, reducing seasonal rainfall by about half, according to a report by scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group.

Climate change contributed by driving up temperatures.

“Seasonal temperatures from August to October were dominated by climate change — primarily from the burning of fossil fuels — which made the seasonal heat about 1.6°C hotter,” said the report.

“Human-induced warming made these (fire-prone) atmospheric conditions about three times more likely as well as more intense.”

The researchers also pointed to deforestation and peatland drainage for agriculture, mining and logging as major contributors to the fire disaster.

Smoke from the wildfires made hundreds of thousands ill in Indonesia from breathing in toxic haze and exposed many more in neighbouring countries to dangerously high air pollution levels.

“Indonesia’s landscapes have changed dramatically over the last 30 years, with extensive peatland drainage and deforestation creating landscapes that can be extremely vulnerable to ignition,” said meteorologist Pramudhian Firdaus of the FLARE Wildfire Research group.

“These findings show how both emissions reductions and sustained forest and peatland protection are important in reducing future risk.”

Wildfires have burned through 2.88 million hectares (7.1 million acres) so far in 2026, according to the Nusantara Atlas deforestation monitor.

The burned area figure — 18 times the size of London — increased nearly a million hectares in a month.

The Indonesian government has not confirmed or rejected the figure nor released its own estimate of area burnt since July.

Indonesia experiences fires every dry season, but this year’s blazes have been particularly severe. — AFP