120 years on, 105 grid collapses: Why Nigeria still can’t keep the lights on

More than a century after electricity came to Nigeria, reliable power remains out of reach for millions, with ageing infrastructure, mounting debts and weak investment keeping the sector in crisis. As the sector defied previous efforts to keep the lights on, DARE OLAWIN chronicles possible solutions to end the darkness

Growing up in the ancient border town of Ipokia, Ogun State, was fun. Life was good because electricity was never a problem. Every household had power, whether the house was built of mud or bamboo.

Artisans depended almost entirely on NEPA, as we called the utility then. My barber, Boda Kowi, never owned a generator; power was always restored within minutes of any interruption. Weekends were lively for us children. Like our city mates, we watched cartoons and TV series on sets that worked reliably in the days before social media. That was the reality of stable electricity in the 1990s in a quiet community about 124 kilometres from Abeokuta, the state capital.

Moving to Abeokuta showed me an even higher level of reliability. Students enjoyed nearly 24-hour supply. Cooking, ironing and other daily needs never suffered. Today the reverse is the case. Since 2013, Ipokia has been in total darkness. Transformers, cables and poles have become homes for birds and rodents. Vandals have removed cables with almost no consequence. Abeokuta is only marginally better: many esidents still receive about three hours of electricity a week. That deterioration is stark.

The situation in Ipokia is a replica of what has happened to many communities in Nigeria and Africa over the years. Instead of progress, the continent has seen retrogression. According to the World Bank, nearly 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa still live without electricity; Nigeria alone accounts for about 87 million of them. Successive governments have failed to expand the power sector in line with population growth. Energy demand rises daily while generation stagnates or declines. Funds meant for development have too often disappeared into private pockets.

A former Minister of Power under the late President Muhammadu Buhari, Saleh Mamman, was recently sentenced to 75 years’ imprisonment for a N33.8bn money-laundering and fraud case. The court ordered the final forfeiture of recovered funds, foreign currencies and properties, and directed him to refund the outstanding balance of the N22bn diverted from the Mambilla and Zungeru hydroelectric projects.

A report published in 2017 by the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project said the much-publicised power sector reforms in Nigeria under the Electric Power Sector Reform Act of 2005 had yet to yield the desired result largely due to corruption and impunity of its perpetrators, regulatory lapses and policy inconsistencies. SERAP said ordinary Nigerians continue to pay the price for corruption in the electricity sector, staying in darkness, but still made to pay ‘crazy’ electricity bills. It said the total estimated financial loss of over N11tn from 1999 to 2017 represents public funds, private equity and social investment (or divestments) in the power sector. According to the report, the loss may hit over N20tn by 2027.

According to the Nigerian Independent System Operator, official grid data show that although the country’s installed generation capacity has stood at 13,014.4 megawatts since January 7, 2021, its highest-ever electricity generation reached only 5,801.84MW on March 4, 2025, meaning that less than 45 per cent of installed capacity was achieved after four years but this could not even be sustained as the grid keeps collapsing.

The figures show that the transmission network has had a validated transmission wheeling capacity of 7,300MW since March 4, 2020. The grid also recorded its highest daily electricity transmission of 126,606.47 megawatt-hours on March 4, 2025. This has since fallen to an average of 95,000MW as of the time of filing this report. The persistent low generation and transmission capacity reflect deep-rooted problems, including gas supply shortages, ageing infrastructure, poor plant reliability, liquidity constraints, vandalism and weak investment across the electricity value chain.

In context, Nigeria’s electricity output remains one of the lowest among major economies despite its status as Africa’s most populous nation. The country’s 13,000MW installed capacity and peak generation of 5,800MW pales in comparison with other countries. South Africa has about 52,000MW of installed capacity, Egypt about 59,000MW, Algeria around 25,000MW, while Morocco’s 12,000MW is almost equal to Nigeria’s installed capacity of 13,014.4MW despite having less than one-sixth of Nigeria’s population. Beyond Africa, India has about 500,000MW of installed capacity, Brazil more than 230,000MW, and China over 4,000 gigawatts, highlighting the wide gap between Nigeria’s power supply and that of comparable economies.

The spokesperson of the distribution companies, Sunday Oduntan, expressed concerns that a country of about 237.5 million people with significant gas reserves is still generating extremely low electricity compared to other countries. Oduntan said power generation should be 1,000MW per 1 million people, referencing South Africa with a population of 64.7 million with a 52,000MW capacity. He regretted that the Mambilla, Nigeria’s largest hydropower plant with 3,050MW, was awarded in 1982 at $5.8bn but the project remains stalled four decades after.

Since inception, Nigeria’s power sector has undergone different stages of reforms under different administrations but nothing seems to be working. The sector keeps defying all efforts to put things right. The PUNCH reports that the grid collapsed 105 times in 10 years despite $1.4bn loans.

According to a report by a power sector consultant Osayu Ogboghodo, supported by the MacArthur Foundation, Nigeria’s electricity sector has undergone more than 120 years of reforms, beginning with a 60-kilowatt power plant in Lagos in 1896. The industry later came under the Electricity Corporation of Nigeria before the ECN merged with the Niger Dams Authority in 1972 to form the National Electric Power Authority, whose era was marked by poor electricity supply, ageing infrastructure and chronic underinvestment. The return to democracy in 1999 triggered sweeping reforms. The National Electric Power Policy approved in 2001 unbundled NEPA into 18 successor companies, whose assets and liabilities were transferred to the Power Holding Company of Nigeria in 2005 ahead of privatisation. The Electric Power Sector Reform Act also established the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission to regulate the industry. The privatisation of generation and distribution companies was completed in 2013, while the Transmission Company of Nigeria remained under government ownership.

Despite the reforms, the expected improvements in investment, electricity supply and efficiency have not materialised, due to weak technical and financial capacity among investors, non-cost-reflective tariffs and mounting market debts as key factors holding back the sector. In 2023, President Bola Tinubu signed a new Electricity Act which decentralised the power sector with the belief that his administration would give electricity to all Nigerians. He had earlier told Nigerians not to vote him for a second term if he failed to give them stable electricity. The president is seeking reelection next year, but power is still a luxury with homes and businesses battling darkness daily. The fear is that, if nothing urgent is done, the few areas enjoying stable electricity today would turn out to be like Ipokia soon.

According to the Special Adviser to the President on Power Infrastructure, Sadiq Wanka, it was estimated that Nigeria requires about $12bn annually in electricity investments through 2045. However, the country currently attracts an annual investment of just $1bn. The $11bn yearly gap is alarming and raises serious questions about how the shortfall will be closed.

Is there a way out?

Looking at the challenges facing the Nigerian power sector and the deterioration the sector has continued to grapple with, the question remains: Is there a way out of this quagmire? Will Nigerians ever experience stable electricity? The answer is not straightforward. It is highly complicated, with many factors determining whether it will be yes or no. For now, the ‘no’ appears stronger than the ‘yes’ given the current state of the power sector. Yet better outcomes remain possible if government at every level demonstrates sustained political will and implements the measures below.

Good governance is key

Leadership quality determines national outcomes. A nation develops if there is good governance. Various administrations seem not to have done enough to improve the power sector. With the decentralisation of the sector, the responsibility no longer lies on the president alone; the governors have huge tasks to ensure towns and villages are electrified. The era of funds going into private pockets should come to an end. Every minister, commissioner, adviser, board member, civil servant, assistant, and anyone who has anything to do with the power sector must serve with sincerity and not for self-aggrandisement. Appointments must be based on competence and merit, putting square pegs in square holes.

Similarly, governments at all levels should learn to separate politics from the power sector. It was observed that the fear of losing elections has prevented previous governments from taking decisions that could aid the sector’s growth. The power sector needs complete overhaul and this is not for the faint-hearted. With good governance, the right policies and the right political will, Nigerians should expect a positive turnaround as far as electricity is concerned. An energy expert, Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare agreed that turning around the power sector begins with good governance, a clear understanding of the market structure, improved liquidity, and fiscal stability, saying, “The challenges are not merely technical; they are fundamentally economic and institutional.”

Scrap unsustainable subsidy

For many years, the sector has been grappling with a liquidity crisis. According to NERC, the Federal Government allows power customers to pay less than what they consume. In the absence of cost-reflective tariffs, the government undertakes to cover the shortfall in the form of tariff subsidies. NERC further warned that the current subsidy regime leaves the Federal Government exposed to uncertain and potentially rising financial obligations, saying, “The open-ended nature of the subsidy exposes the FG to indeterminate subsidy obligations due to volumetric risk and changes in generation costs arising from changes in the generation mix, particularly with an increase in thermal generation.”

So far, the Federal Government has failed to pay the subsidies it promised, which led to the N4tn legacy debt the government is struggling to pay through bonds. According to the Association of Power Generation Companies, the unpaid subsidy, money meant for its members, averages N200bn monthly, leaving investors reeling in debts, especially to gas companies. At different fora, government officials have said repeatedly that the current subsidy is no longer sustainable. Many stakeholders have also called for its removal, but the government is not ready to do the needful, perhaps due to the fear of losing elections.

Reacting to the Federal Government’s N4tn Presidential Power Sector Debt Reduction Programme, the GenCos warned that fresh liabilities estimated at over N7tn could accumulate before the programme is fully implemented. APGC Chief Executive Joy Ogaji has warned that by the time the N4tn debt (accrued to December 2024) is paid over seven years, a further N7tn in new liabilities is likely to have accumulated. She argues that the government must openly acknowledge it can no longer fund the current subsidy arrangement, which exists largely on paper and lacks corresponding budgetary provision. Minister of Power Joseph Tegbe has admitted the shortfalls are growing and has promised to resolve the liquidity crisis by 2027. That timeline is already late because investors will not commit capital where returns are not guaranteed.

Metering must come first

If the sector is determined to move to cost-reflective tariffs, then metering should come first. The era of billing customers for electricity not consumed should be over. Customers have repeatedly accused the DisCos of billing them even when there was no supply.

“We don’t have power supply in Oluwo like we used to have it, but the bills keep coming at the same rate,” Asake, a resident of Iperu in Ogun said. This should not continue under a cost-reflective regime. Nigerians should pay for only what they consume. The DisCos would up their games if they know customers no longer pay for darkness. With 4.85 million unmetered customers, a lot still has to be done.

• Nigeria, others secure $22bn private capital from W’Bank
• Abiodun, Adebutu, Yayi for Ogere Remo 50th anniversary
• Eight escape death as three trucks collide on Lagos-Ibadan Expressway

Governors should act

The decentralisation of the power sector is an opportunity for governors to turn around the power sector in their states. So far, 17 states are autonomous. The states that have set up their electricity markets now have the liberty to regulate generation, transmission and distribution. The remaining states and the Federal Capital Territory seem to be lagging as no time should be wasted in electrifying homes and villages. States with independent electricity laws can attract investors, incentivise them, and keep homes and businesses lit. States need more GenCos and DisCos. The current utility companies need competitors and that’s one major way to keep the lights on. State regulators must be up and doing, proving to the operators that it’s no longer business-as-usual. While not acting unfriendly to investors, regulations and orders should be strictly adhered to and sanctions must come where necessary.

Mini-grids are quick wins

As it is today, mini-grids are good sources of electricity, especially in underserved and unserved areas. Underserved areas like Ipokia already have the grid but supply is almost zero. In those areas, interconnected mini-grids are the way out. A state with its electricity law can issue licences to those the Rural Electrification Agency called Renewable Energy Service Companies to build interconnected mini-grids in underserved communities. In unserved rural communities, mini-grids should be deployed. The REA has carried out a detailed research to indicate what it requires to electrify the entire Nigeria, state by state.

The agency established that the grid may never get to some locations because of the huge investment required. So, mini-grids come handy in those communities. The 36 state governors need to get the REA report to identify what they should do to send off darkness. After all, former Ekiti State Governor, Ayodele Fayose, said darkness has something to do with population surge, which invariably is hiking energy demand and affecting power generation in a continent without appreciable investments. It is gratifying that NERC has released new mini-grid regulations which provide for an increase in capacity thresholds, from the previous 1-megawatt limit to 5 MW for isolated mini-grids and 10 MW for interconnected mini-grids. This allows developers to build larger and more robust systems without being trapped in the complex regulatory requirements typically reserved for utility-scale power plants. The regulation also introduces a single permit that consolidates generation, distribution, and supply, eliminating costly and time-consuming dual-licensing processes that previously stalled progress. So, states only need to invest and attract investors. Many have argued that renewables cannot industrialise Nigeria, but an energy expert, Daniel Oladoja, proposed that renewables should light up many homes while the grid focuses more on industries.

In his letter to Tinubu, Senator Ben Murray-Bruce advised that every community has its own mini-grid and utility. He argued that Nigeria’s centralised electricity model had failed to provide reliable power to the majority of Nigerians. He noted that the 2013 privatisation of the power sector had failed, arguing that the country should instead develop community-based electricity systems powered largely by renewable energy.

He said, “Every village, every estate, every community in Nigeria should have its own PHCN.”

According to him, communities should be allowed to raise funds and secure bank financing to establish their own electricity systems, with governments providing guarantees for the loans. Giving an example, Murray-Bruce said a residential estate with about 5,000 families could obtain a N3bn loan to develop a metered solar generation system capable of supplying the estate fully.

“Suppose you are the chairman of Dolphin Estate in Lagos which has about five thousand families. You go to a bank. You borrow N3bn to build metered solar generation sufficient to supply the estate one hundred per cent. The state government guarantees the loan,” he said.

He added that residents would pay for the electricity through their community association, while non-paying customers would be disconnected in accordance with the law.

“Residents pay the association for power at cost plus a regulated margin of twenty-five per cent. Those who do not pay are disconnected, as the law provides,” he said. Murray-Bruce stressed that replicating the model across estates, wards and communities would not only improve electricity supply but also create opportunities for Nigerians to own and operate power businesses.

Revive idle plants

In the midst of scarcity, the country still has many unutilised power projects located across the country. The former power minister, Bayo Adelabu, revealed last year that over 10,000MW of electricity were being wasted across different idle plants scattered across the country. He lamented that several government-built assets worth billions have been left idle for years, saying the country was being lazy and carefree. This should not continue. The country should do an audit of all idle power projects, including Mambilla and those under the control of the Niger Delta Power Holding Company. The government has set up the Grid Asset Management Company Limited to revive idle government-owned power plants. GAMCO should live up to its task.

Fix the weak grid

The country’s power infrastructure is riddled with ageing equipment installed over five decades ago. As a result, the grid collapses whenever it is overstretched. The Federal Government has vowed to invest in power infrastructure, upgrading the transmission substations to ensure easy evacuation of power generated. The power minister has also assured Nigerians that 6,000MW would be wheeled by December 2026. This should not be another unfulfilled promise.

According to Iledare, electricity is an economic good, even though it is also a basic necessity. Its price must therefore provide adequate rewards for efficient investment while remaining affordable to consumers. “Achieving this delicate balance between investor returns and consumer affordability is central to the sustainability of the sector,” he added.

The don noted that economies of scale are equally important. The power sector, he noted, requires substantial capital investment, and fragmentation without corresponding efficiency gains can undermine cost effectiveness and system reliability. This he said makes the ongoing decentralisation of electricity-sector governance a positive step in the right direction, provided that responsibilities are clearly defined and institutional capacity is strengthened.

Ultimately, Iledare stressed that regulatory decisions must be credible, predictable, transparent, and consistent. Investors, he added, need confidence that the rules governing tariffs, market participation, investment recovery, and competition will not change arbitrarily.

“The immediate opportunity, therefore, is not simply to invest more money in the power sector, but to fix the governance and market fundamentals that allow existing and new investments to create sustainable value. That is where the hanging fruits for transforming Nigeria’s electricity sector lie,” he submitted.

On his part, Professor Dayo Ayoade of the University of Lagos opined that the first thing is to focus on the most critical bottlenecks, asking that the technical team evaluate the most important generation, transmission and distribution assets that need to be fixed for immediate impacts on the sector.

“We should fix the transmission bottlenecks. The evacuation of power is a big problem, even when the power plants generate, there is no way to evacuate it to the DisCos. That is why the Federal Government set up GAMCO. This is political solution and a bureaucratic solution to a pressing problem is not the way forward,” Ayoade argued.

He urged the government to speed up the presidential power sector financial reforms programme to settle the N4tn legacy debt. He also saw the need to look at the tariffs. To him, cost-reflective tariff is not working because DisCos can’t ask customers to pay more without equivalent service.

“Maybe we need to reform the service-based framework so that DisCos must pay compensation if customers don’t get the promised hours of supply,” he added.

Ayoade called for a reform of the country’s electricity governance, saying, “We have to reform electricity governance. There are over 22 agencies and institutions in the power sector. This has to be streamlined to stop overlapping functions.”

In conclusion, the path out of darkness is neither simple nor guaranteed. It requires honest governance, the political courage to end unsustainable subsidies, universal metering, energetic state-level action, rapid deployment of mini-grids, revival of idle plants and a modernised transmission network. If these steps are taken with consistency and transparency, Nigerians may yet enjoy the reliable electricity that once lit even the quiet streets of Ipokia; otherwise, the Ipokia experience could become the future of communities that still enjoy electricity today.