Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to US Senate since 1988: Two polls show Republican candidate trailing in midterms

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in two recent Texas Senate polls. The race is drawing attention as Texas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988, with Paxton facing GOP divisions, weak personal ratings and economic concerns.

Democrat James Talarico has opened a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for a US Senate seat in Texas, an unusual development in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide elections for decades.

Lloyd Bentsen, a Democrat, was re-elected to the Senate from Texas in 1988 and after that no candidate from the party could win from the state.

A Fox News poll of Texas likely voters conducted from September 24 to 28 showed Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 49%. The two-point advantage is within the poll's margin of error of three percentage points. Among registered voters, however, Talarico's lead widened to seven points, compared with a three-point advantage in July.

A separate New York Times/Siena University poll conducted from September 21 to 30 put Talarico six points ahead of Paxton. The result has renewed questions over whether Democrats could break their long drought in statewide Texas politics in the 2026 midterms.

The polling does not necessarily indicate that Texas has turned Democratic. Instead, the numbers point to a combination of Paxton's weaknesses, divisions within the Republican electorate, Talarico's support among key voter groups and a difficult political environment for Republicans.

Paxton faces weaker personal ratings

One of the clearest differences between the two candidates is their personal ratings.

Talarico has a net positive rating of eight points, with 52% of likely voters viewing him favourably and 44% unfavourably. Paxton, meanwhile, has a net negative rating of 18 points, with 40% favourable and 58% unfavourable ratings.

The Fox News poll also found that Republicans were six times more likely to view Paxton unfavourably than Democrats were to view Talarico unfavourably.

The Republican nominee's support is also affected by divisions within the party. Non-MAGA Republicans were more than five times as likely as MAGA Republicans to support Talarico, at 22% versus 4%. The poll found that 20% of likely voters who supported Republican Senator John Cornyn in the March primary now back Talarico.

Independents and moderates favour Talarico

Talarico's advantage extends beyond the Democratic base.

The Fox poll found strong support for the Democrat among moderates, with 65% backing him. He also led among Hispanic voters at 64%, voters under 35 at 62% and Black voters at 79%.

Paxton's strongest groups included White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters and people aged 65 and above.

The polling suggests that Paxton's challenge is not simply holding the Republican base together but also winning over voters who are less firmly aligned with the GOP.

Trump remains an important factor

Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, but his current approval rating in the state is underwater, according to the Fox poll.

The survey found 44% of Texans approving of Trump's performance and 55% disapproving. While 15% of voters who disapprove of Trump still support Paxton, only 9% of those who approve of Trump support Talarico.

The New York Times also reported that a September Texas Southern University survey put Trump's approval rating seven points underwater in the state.

Cost of living emerges as another fault line

The Fox survey found that seven in 10 Texans consider the cost of living extremely important to their Senate vote. Twice as many voters said they were falling behind financially as said they were getting ahead -- 35% versus 16%.

Those who said they were falling behind financially backed Talarico by 32 points, while voters who said they were getting ahead favoured Paxton by 48 points.

Talarico also held leads among voters who considered the cost of living, artificial intelligence and Trump extremely important to their Senate vote. Voters focused on immigration, meanwhile, favoured Paxton by 20 points.

About the Author

Prabhakar Jha is a journalist and digital news editor with nearly a decade of experience in online media, specialising in breaking news, politics, national affairs. Having built his career across fast-paced digital newsrooms, he has developed a reputation for delivering accurate, timely, and reader-friendly stories while leading editorial teams during high-pressure news cycles. In 2026, he joined LiveMint as a Digital Content Producer. <br><br> A postgraduate in History from the University of Delhi, Prabhakar combines strong editorial judgment with a keen interest in public policy, governance, economics, and global affairs. Before joining LiveMint, he worked with leading digital publications, including News9Live and The Times of India, where he handled breaking news, copy editing, headline writing, live coverage, and newsroom coordination. <br><br> Beyond the newsroom, Prabhakar is passionate about long-form writing and storytelling. He has a particular interest in global affairs. An avid reader with a love for literary fiction, he also enjoys blogging, poetry, and working on creative writing projects.

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