Week 5 NFL bold predictions: Bijan Robinson makes NFL primetime history, struggling Packers upset Bears

Plus, the Dolphins finally get more points on the board and other bold predictions for Week 5

Oct 9, 2026 at 8:53 am ET • 6 min read

Anything can happen in the NFL, and the start to Week 5 of the 2026 season certainly reminded us all of that. 

The Dallas Cowboys (2-3) entered their "Thursday Night Football" home game against the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4) as 9.5-point home favorites. Undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels was making his second career NFL start in place of an injured Baker Mayfield, and the Buccaneers pulled off the third-largest upset win by an undrafted rookie quarterback since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger in a 24-16 victory. 

What other craziness could take place across the rest of the NFL's Week 5 slate? Here is a look at five bold predictions. 

Sagging Green Bay Packers upset the Chicago Bears

For the first time since their 2006 NFC title season, the Chicago Bears (3-1) are favored at Lambeau Field over the Green Bay Packers (2-2). This snaps a 19-game streak of visits to Lambeau in which the Bears were the underdog. 

It makes sense why this has finally shifted. Chicago won two of its three matchups in the 2024 season, including the last two on miraculous comebacks that required rallies from double-digit deficits in both Week 16 and the opening round of the postseason. 

This season, the Bears lead the NFL in total offense (429.0 total yards per game), rushing offense (196.3), and first down offense (25.3 first downs per game) despite quarterback Caleb Williams going down midway through Week 2. Even the defense has picked up the slack, allowing the fewest points per game (9.3) in the entire league since Week 2.

On the flip side, the Packers' offense is struggling. They're dead last in rushing yards per game (58.0), nearly 20 yards fewer than the Bengals' 74.3 rushing yards per game. Because of that inability to run the ball with the litany of offensive line injuries they've had, Green Bay's unbalanced offense ranks 28th in scoring (18.3 points per game) and dead last in third down efficiency (26.1% conversion rate.

However, the Packers will upset the Bears behind a masterful performance from Jordan Love. Here's how it will happen. Week 5 is shaping up to be the Green Bay debut of Pro Bowl right guard Kevin Zeitler, whom the Packers signed last week. With Zeitler and new left guard Laken Tomlinson looking down the interior of the pocket, Love will have time to shred the Bears' secondary. The last time he faced them in the wild card round loss in January, he threw for 323 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. 

Love will put together another line like that in Week 5 and lead the Packers to victory over their hated rivals. 

Bijan Robinson becomes first player in NFL history with 140-plus rush yards in four consecutive primetime games

Only two players in NFL history have run for 140-plus rushing yards in three consecutive primetime games: the league's all-time leading rusher, Emmitt Smith (1993-1994 and in 1995), and Atlanta Falcons All-Pro Bijan Robinson. 

His streak began in Week 17 last season when he erupted for 195 yards and a touchdown (93 yards) on 22 carries in a 27-24 victory over the Los Angeles Rams on "Monday Night Football." Fast forward to Week 3 this season, and he decimated the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field with 194 yards rushing and two rushing touchdowns on 29 carries on "Thursday Night Football." In Week 4, he bullied the New Orleans Saints in their 20th anniversary of the reopening of the Superdome on "Monday Night Football" with 145 yards rushing and two rushing touchdowns on 19 carries, including a 59-yard scoring sprint on his first run of the night. 

Now, Robinson is looking to go for 140 yards rushing for a fourth primetime game in a row, something no one has yet accomplished in the league. He'll face a stout Baltimore Ravens run defense that is allowing the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game (100.0) in the league this season. They certainly get plenty of reps in practice against an elite running back in Derrick Henry, but he's much more of a bruiser at his size (6-foot-3, 252 pounds) and age (32 years old) than the more elusive Robinson (5-foot-11, 215 pounds at 24 years old). 

The difference in style between the two will be too much for Baltimore to handle, and Robinson will rush for over 140 yards once again. 

Most career scrimmage yards in primetime games, since 1970 AFL/NFL merger (min. 10 games played)	Scrim YPG
Bijan Robinson (ATL)	145.5
Barry Sanders (DET)	126.3
Jonathan Taylor (IND)	121.8
O.J. Simpson (BUF)	120.6

T.J. Watt sets NFL birthday sacks record with three vs. Colts' Daniel Jones

Pittsburgh Steelers four-time All-Pro edge rusher T.J. Watt is set to celebrate his 32nd birthday on Sunday in Week 5. Watt's 4.5 sacks this season are tied for the third most in the league with Will Anderson Jr., and his 119.5 career sacks are tied for the fourth most by a player prior to turning 32 in NFL history, per CBS Sports Research. 

Watt won't secure that record, but he will break the record for the most sacks on a player's birthday in NFL history against Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones. The record is 2.0, which has been done many times, but no one has done three. The last time Watt registered at least three sacks in a game was back in 2023 against the San Francisco 49ers, when he sacked Brock Purdy three times in Week 1. 

He'll accomplish that feat against a struggling Jones, who has four total touchdowns to seven turnovers this season. He hasn't been the easiest to sack this season: Jones' eight sacks taken are tied for the 12th-fewest in the league entering Week 5. However, Watt will find some extra juice on his birthday to set the league's all-time birthday sack record with three. 

Giants' Jameis Winston completes 70% of his passes vs. Washington Commanders

Despite the New York Giants being 3-1 after quarterback Jaxson Dart went down, that doesn't mean fill-in Jameis Winston is lighting the world on fire. In fact, it's kind of the opposite with Winston ranking dead last in the league in completion percentage (55.1%). 

However, Winston will register his first game with a completion percentage of 70% or higher since the 2021 season on Sunday against the Washington Commanders. Washington is allowing the third-most points per game (30.5), the eighth-most passing yards per game, and the fifth-highest passer rating (106.8) in the NFL this season. They also blitz a lot. New Commanders defensive coordinator Daronte Jones worked under Brian Flores with the Minnesota Vikings, and like Flores, he is aggressive. Minnesota leads the league in blitz rate at 71.2%, and Jones' Washington defense ranks second at 46.4%. 

Winston is just 11-for-22 when blitzed this season for 83 yards and an interception, but he'll get the ball out quickly to produce his most efficient game he's had since his 2021 season with the New Orleans Saints. 

Dolphins score 14-plus points vs. Bengals

The Miami Dolphins' 2026 season is going exactly how one would expect for a squad paying more for players not on their roster (an NFL-record $179 million in dead cap hits) than the players on their roster ($156 million). They're 0-4 and have the NFL's worst scoring offense, averaging 11.5 points per game. 

Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis has a hard knock life trying to quarterback a Miami Dolphins team that entered the year with Jalen Tolbert as the roster's career receiving yards leader. With a supporting cast like that, it's no wonder the 2026 Dolphins are the first team since the 2019 "Tank for Tua" Dolphins to score fewer than 14 points in each of the first four games of the season. 

That puts Miami in a position to avoid becoming the fifth team since 1950 to have fewer than 14 points in each of its first five games. But the Dolphins are going to score at least 14 points against Cincinnati on Sunday. How? Well, the Bengals are the NFL's second-worst rushing offense, averaging 74.3 rushing yards per game. Defending the Bengals simply involves defending their passing game, and both Ja'Mar Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor) aren't healthy. The Dolphins will be able to wear out the Bengals defense because Cincinnati's offense won't be able to sustain drives with Higgins and Chase hurt. 

Then, Willis will strike for a couple of touchdowns, and Miami will break 14 points for the first time in 2026.