It wouldn't shock me IF ... NFL Week 6: Trevor Lawrence melts down at Wembley, Giants extend lead in NFC East

No, I'm sorry. I can't give you the winning numbers for the upcoming lottery. Oh, you didn't ask? My mistake. I figured you would, considering we basically predicted the future in this very column last week, and I assumed you thought I was some sort of sorcerer. Alas, I'm just a dude who knows way too much about football, despite what my 0-5 fantasy football team would have you think.

Our finger was on the pulse of some of the biggest developments of Week 5, and some even came before the action officially kicked off. In what felt like hours after last week's story was posted, word came down that Sean Payton was going to take over the offensive play-calling duties from David Webb. That was an angle we put in the crosshairs and predicted would come to fruition. 

We were also right on target with Justin Herbert getting sacked a season-high five times, Nick Sirianni's seat reaching a fever pitch after a loss in London, and the San Francisco 49ers firmly establishing themselves as the new Super Bowl favorite. The only call we missed was Jacoby Brissett throwing for 350 yards. That said, he finished with a season-high 292 yards through the air, so the logic was sound. 

So, what's left to do? Pat myself on the back? I already did that with this already-too-long lede. No, the only thing left to do now is roll up our sleeves, comb through the Week 6 slate, and identify some underrated storylines/performances that wouldn't shock us if they happened. 

MarShawn Lloyd rushes for 100 yards

The Packers rushing attack has been nonexistent so far this season. As a team, they're last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (60.4) and 31st in yards per carry (3.1). When it comes to Lloyd, Green Bay hoped he would be the main contributor after Josh Jacobs landed on the commissioner's exempt list, but he hasn't exactly answered the bell. Of the 36 running backs who have logged at least 40 rushing attempts so far this season, Lloyd is 36th in rushing yards and 35th in yards per carry. He's also last among those backs in yards per carry after contact. 

And yet, it wouldn't surprise us if he went off in Week 6 to the tune of 100 yards on the ground. Why? Simple. He's playing the Dallas Cowboys. 

Dallas has one of the worst defenses in the NFL coming into Week 6, and they've particularly struggled to stop the run. So far this season, the Cowboys are last in the NFL, allowing teams to pile up 168.4 rushing yards per game. Just last week, they let Bucs running back Bucky Irving run wild for 165 yards. 

Gambling angle to note: MarShawn Llyod's Over/Under rushing yards prop sits at 40.5 (-112) to the Over.  Lloyd is +250 to reach 60 rushing yards, +610 to reach 80 rushing yards, and +1300 to rush for at least 100 yards (via DraftKings Sportsbook). 

Trevor Lawrence struggles at Wembley Stadium

On the whole, Trevor Lawrence has played great this season. He has the Jags at 4-1 entering Week 6 with a healthy lead in the AFC South and is fourth in the NFL in passer rating. However, he could be in some trouble this week as Jacksonville concludes its two-week stint in London with a matchup against the Texans. 

Houston has endured a miserable start to 2026, beginning the year 0-4 before finally notching a win last week against the Tennessee Titans. While no one will mistake that as a marquee victory, I do think it may have been a get-right spot for DeMeco Ryans' team, particularly on defense. They held the Titans to a field goal and sacked Cam Ward four times in the contest. Could that have been enough to wake what is unquestionably a supremely talented defense back up? If so, that's not great news for Lawrence. 

In his career, Lawrence is 3-7 against the Texans and has thrown eight touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions. Houston is eighth in the NFL in pressure so far this season, so Lawrence could be under siege quite a bit in this game. When pressured this season, Lawrence ranks 18th out of 26 qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (41.7%). To his credit, he does have a passer rating when pressured that squeaks in at 10th highest among those quarterbacks, but it's still just 66.1. Lawrence may also be fortunate that figure isn't lower, as his turnover-worthy throw rate when pressured is tied for the third-highest. 

If Houston can get pressure, Lawrence will give the secondary chances to create turnovers. 

Gambling angle to note: Texans ML is +120 (via DraftKings Sportsbook). 

Giants' lead in the NFC East grows to 2.5 games

As crazy as it might sound when factoring in Jaxson Dart's season-ending knee injury in Week 2, the New York Giants are still atop the NFC East entering Week 6. Moreover, they hold a 1.5-game lead over the rest of the division, which is the largest division lead they've held since 2012. Don't be shocked if that jumps to a 2.5-game lead by the time the dust settles on Week 6. 

New York is currently slotted as a home underdog to the Saints this Sunday, but the margin is razor-thin, with the line sitting at 1.5 and the Giants' moneyline currently priced in at -102. New Orleans is stumbling into this matchup, losing three straight to drop to 1-4 on the season, and Tyler Shough has started to come back down to earth. 

After totaling 917 passing yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions over the first three weeks, Shough has thrown for just 382 yards, one touchdown and two picks over the past two games. When you factor that recent slump in with the fact that New Orleans could be looking ahead on its schedule to their Week 7 trip to Paris, France, against the Steelers, the Giants should be looked at as a live home dog. 

Meanwhile, the Cowboys and Eagles (tied for second behind the Giants at 2-3) both have difficult matchups in Week 6. Dallas is heading into Lambeau Field as an underdog against the Packers, while the Eagles are coming back from London and hosting a Panthers team that was just on the bye. Despite that game being played in Philly, Carolina is the road favorite. 

So, by the end of the weekend, we could see both the Cowboys and Eagles dropping to 2-4, and if New York can take care of business against New Orleans, it'd rather remarkably be 4-1-1 and have a growing lead in the division. 

Gambling angle to note: A Giants, Packers, and Panthers moneyline parlay is +573 (via DraftKings Sportsbook). 

Titans get their first win of 2026 

I've written this in a couple of different spots, but it won't shock me if Tennessee finally gets into the win column this weekend. While I don't have them pulling off the upset in my official picks column, I do have them covering the spread as one of my five locks of the week. 

Really, it's more of a play against their opponent, the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts' defense is 28th in the NFL in total yards allowed (384.2), so there's an opportunity here for this lackluster unit to prop up what is a bad Tennessee offense. Meanwhile, Indy's offense doesn't inspire much confidence. The defense ranks 29th in yards per play allowed (4.6), while Daniel Jones has registered more turnovers (7) than touchdowns (4) so far this year. 

This is the type of recipe that cooks up upsets. The Colts may play down to Tennessee's level, and if Jones' turnover issues continue to plague him and the defense can't stop a nosebleed, it's a pretty light lift for Cam Ward to put points on the board. 

Gambling angle to note: Titans ML is +260 (via DraftKings Sportsbook). 

Steelers score less than 20 points in loss to Bucs

Pittsburgh's home/road splits are quite drastic this season. In the friendly confines of Acrisure Stadium, the Steelers are 3-0 and averaging 28 points per game. On the road, they're 0-2 and averaging just 13.5 points per game. While the Steelers haven't started a season 0-3 on the road since 2012, it's certainly within the range of possibilities in 2026. 

Not only will they lack a home-field advantage in this game, but Pittsburgh will also be at a rest disadvantage against the Bucs, who played last Thursday. On top of that, Tampa Bay matches up pretty well against some key pieces of the Pittsburgh offense. Specifically, they've done quite well containing the run, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (72.8) and yards per rush (3.3) in the NFL entering Week 6. If they keep that pace, it'd do wonders for cooling off Jaylen Warren. 

Meanwhile, Todd Bowles has done well against Aaron Rodgers in the past, owning a 2-1 record against the quarterback and holding his teams to just 16.7 points per game. Those factors put Pittsburgh firmly on upset alert, and it could be a rather quiet day for the offense. 

Gambling angle to note: Steelers team total is 20.5 points for Week 6, with the Under slotted at -120. Under 19.5 team total is +115. A Buccaneers ML and Steelers Under 19.5 team total points parlay is +176 (via DraftKings Sportsbook).