🏀 Predicting NBA conference and Finals winners

The NBA has had eight different champions since 2019: the Toronto Raptors, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Golden State Warriors, Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder and New York Knicks. Will the 2027 Finals follow the same script?

In the East, the reigning champion Knicks will face adversaries such as LeBron James, Jaylen Brown and the new-look Philadelphia 76ers as New York attempts to defend its title. Out West, the picture is equally competitive, with juggernauts such as the San Antonio Spurs, Minnesota Timberwolves and the 2024-25 champion Thunder vying to become the conference's representative.

As the calendar barrels toward opening night, which teams will rise above the rest come April, May and June 2027? After forecasting each team's record, our NBA insiders are projecting the teams most likely to reach their respective conference finals and which will win this season's title. Here's how the voting works: A first-place vote receives five points, a second-place vote receives three and a third-place vote receives one. (Note: Summer Forecast continues Wednesday with predictions for every major NBA award.)

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Eastern Conference finals | Western Conference finals
NBA Finals

Who will win the Eastern Conference finals?

1. New York Knicks: 68 points
2. Philadelphia 76ers: 51 points
T-3. Boston Celtics: 17 points
T-3. Detroit Pistons: 17 points
5. Indiana Pacers:12 points
6. Cleveland Cavaliers: 9 points

The Knicks and 76ers will vie for a spot in the NBA Finals, according to our forecast, a year after the two teams met in a second-round series, which New York won handily in four games. If the Knicks make it back to the conference finals, it will be the second time in the parity era (since 2019) that a defending champion reached that level the following season (the 2025-26 Thunder were the first).

New York's record run through the playoffs and Finals cannot be ignored -- nor can the moves the 76ers made in a shocking offseason. The acquisitions of Jaylen Brown and LeBron James are critical pieces to the team's hopes of reaching its first conference finals since 2001.

An I-95/Amtrak conference finals would be tantalizing for the league office: James in a high-stakes series against the backdrop of Madison Square Garden? But Cleveland is banking on a repeat trip to the conference finals, and Detroit is looking to take another step after falling in the second round as a No. 1 seed last season.

The Celtics had the second-best record in the East last season before blowing a 3-1 lead in Round 1 to the 76ers. Though the Celtics have lost three playoff series as favorites in the Joe Mazzulla era, they could benefit from lower expectations and better 3-point shooting.

The Indiana Pacers could be a sleeper with Tyrese Haliburton's return from a right Achilles tear in Game 7 of the 2025 Finals. When Indiana was whole, it defeated the Knicks in the playoffs in 2024 and 2025.

Not mentioned: the Giannis Antetokounmpo-led Miami Heat. Interesting as well. -- Vincent Goodwill

Who will win the Western Conference finals?

1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 88 points
2. San Antonio Spurs: 74 points
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: 9 points
T-4. Denver Nuggets: 8 points
T-4. Houston Rockets: 8 points
6. Los Angeles Lakers: 2 points

It will be surprising if there isn't a rematch of last season's West finals, a seven-game battle won by the Spurs that seemed like the first chapter of the NBA's next epic rivalry. The Thunder (60.5) and Spurs (59.5) have by far the conference's highest over/unders for projected wins, according to DraftKings, with a 10-game drop-off to the next West team.

Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs celebrated a Game 7 win on Oklahoma City's home court in late May. But the Thunder, who were missing Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (calf) in that series, enter this season as slight favorites.

The Timberwolves advanced to the previous two West finals. After being eliminated in the second round last season, Minnesota made major roster changes, moving off of Julius Randle and Naz Reid to bring in LaMelo Ball, pairing the former Charlotte Hornets player with Anthony Edwards in what is arguably the league's most talented backcourt. -- Tim MacMahon

Who will win the 2027 NBA Finals?

1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 84 points
2. San Antonio Spurs: 74 points
3. New York Knicks: 11 points
4. Philadelphia 76ers:10 points
5. Detroit Pistons: 6 points

Will the NBA get its ninth different champion in nine years?

The Spurs have a chance to make that happen after Wembanyama & Co. got five games of Finals experience last season, but back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the 2024-25 champion Thunder are considered the slight favorites, at least by the panel.

Few forecasted New York to go on a title run last season, but Jalen Brunson led the Knicks on a dominant march to the franchise's first championship in more than five decades, losing only three games in the playoffs. Nevertheless, the Knicks come in a distant third among title favorites, according to our panel, trailing the two West powers that are loaded with ascending talent.

Speaking of long title droughts, the Sixers' splashy summer generated hope that Philadelphia could soon celebrate its first NBA championship since 1983. It's worth noting, however, that James has won a title in the second season, not the first, the past three times he changed teams. -- MacMahon