As Trump chaos builds ahead of the midterms, Albanese must tread carefully | Tom McIlroy

When Anthony Albanese jets to Florida for the G20 leaders summit later this year, he could come face to face with the architect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The presence of Vladimir Putin at the meeting of the world’s biggest economies would be a stark reminder of the rapidly shifting political reality facing Australia, as the country’s closest security ally becomes even more unpredictable under Donald Trump.

All expectations are that Trump’s Republican party faces a drubbing in the November midterm elections, an outcome likely to further free the US president from whatever constraints still exist in his administration, or his sense of personal propriety.

Even before the result, Trump last month invited his Russian counterpart to attend the summit at his Doral golf club. It is the first time Putin has been offered a spot at major international talks since the start of the invasion in 2022, and the latest signal that the US president craves the approval of authoritarian strongmen over longtime allies and friends.

To take place in mid-December, the G20’s proposed guest list has angered some Republican hardliners in the US as well as the European Union and Italy, but received cautious support from others. Germany said it could represent a chance for serious negotiations on the future of the war, if Putin meets Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Closer to home, the possibility of losing control of the US Congress is clearly already weighing on Trump’s mind.

Less than three weeks out from the vote, the war in Iran and rising inflation are badly hurting Republicans’ chances, with the result expected to be somewhere between a narrow win for Democrats and a “blue wave” ending Republican control in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The risk of myriad corruption investigations and even impeachment is real for Trump and his family.

On Friday, he overruled his defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, to block a planned livestreaming of the upcoming execution of Nidal Malik Hasan, the man convicted of killing 13 people at a military base at Fort Hood in Texas in 2009. Hegseth – who has significant clout over the future of the Aukus nuclear agreement with Australia – thought it would be a good idea to broadcast the killing of Hasan, who uses a wheelchair, by military firing squad.

Albanese called the plan “completely abhorrent” this week, saying the Australian government would do everything in its power to stop the livestreaming taking place.

Separately, Trump’s administration is attempting to make a case to strip Minnesota Democrat Ilhan Omar of her US citizenship. Born in Somalia, Omar became a naturalised US citizen in 2000 and has been a leading critic of Trump in Congress. Homeland Security officials mounted a pre-dawn raid of her home this week, apparently part of an investigation into her citizenship status and journey to America. The weaponisation of law enforcement to target political opponents is nothing new for Trump, but so close to an election, the political motivation is clear.

Trump has failed in his promises to end the Ukraine war, secure victory in Iran and improve affordability for households, and faces a heavy political price in November.

Is it any wonder so many Australians want the federal government to distance itself from Trump and even untie the country from the longstanding US-Australian alliance?

If Trump becomes more erratic as his control over Washington and his party starts to recede in coming months, engagement with the US president will become even riskier for Albanese.

The pair have a successful working relationship so far, but any perceived slight can be weaponised by Trump and his backers in the White House.

Albanese is among the world leaders strongly supporting Ukraine and Zelenskyy, and already the US government has made clear its views on Labor’s crackdown on the reach of big tech into the lives of Australian families.

The US embassy in Canberra took the unusual step of objecting to draft legislation for a digital duty of care and moves to give social media users the ability to turn off the algorithms controlling their feed.

The move was not a minor intervention. In a submission to the government’s public consultation on the laws, the US warned Labor’s plans could become “a mechanism for viewpoint-based censorship”, through platforms being incentivised to over-moderate free speech to avoid hefty fines.

The trade minister, Don Farrell, revealed this week the government’s plans for big tech were being raised with him each time he meets with Trump’s chief trade representative, Jamieson Greer. Farrell has also already discussed the draft laws with the newly installed US ambassador, David Brat.

The worst case scenario for the government would be a weakening or tearing up of the Aukus deal. As Australia pays billions of dollars to Washington, Trump insists the plan is proceeding at pace, but a material shift in US military capability, or even a change in domestic politics, would put this confidence quickly at risk.

It is also possible an erratic or unreliable Trump could also be politically useful for Albanese and Labor as the next federal election approaches. The prime minister benefited from former opposition leader Peter Dutton’s perceived sympathies for Trump during the 2025 campaign, not least as the “Liberation Day” tariff package was unveiled.

Albanese says Labor represents a source of stability for voters in an increasingly unpredictable world, conditions Trump can take overwhelming credit for. Any further deterioration in the international landscape could spur voters to avoid rightwing parties such as One Nation in Australia, choosing instead to stick with the government they know.

The only safe prediction about Trump is that chaos is business as usual. Managing the relationship is complex for Albanese now, but could become a lot harder as the sun sets on the president’s time in power.