MLB qualifying offer: Predicting who will get a QO this offseason, plus how the $23.15 million contract works

It's unclear how -- or if -- the new CBA will change the QO system, which could leave teams more hesitant to make an offer this winter

Oct 30, 2026 at 11:27 am ET • 8 min read

The Milwaukee Brewers have been crowned the 2026 World Series champions and the 2026-27 offseason is already underway. More than 100 players became free agents the day after the World Series ended, and soon teams will have to make decisions about contract options and qualifying offers.

The qualifying offer (QO) entitles teams to draft-pick compensation in the event that they lose a free agent to another team. The QO is a one-year deal set at the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball. This offseason, it's worth a record $23.15 million, according to the New York Post. That is up from $22.025 million last year, $21.05 million the year before, and $20.325 million the year before that.

Teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to tender their free agents the QO, and players who receive it then have until 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 17 to accept or reject. Players who accept the QO remain with their team and cannot be traded without their consent until June 15. Players who reject the QO become free agents with draft-pick compensation attached. 

Simple, right? The process is, but the decisions aren't always. With that in mind, let's run down this offseason's QO candidates, as well as explain the draft-pick compensation rules.

Does the QO still apply this offseason?

Yes, the QO is still a thing this offseason. The collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, and the next CBA could change the QO rules, maybe even eliminate it entirely. That said, until that happens, the QO remains in place. Decisions to tender the QO (made by the team) and decisions to accept or reject the QO (made by the player) are due before the CBA expires.

Compensation rules

Once upon a time, teams that lost an eligible free agent received a compensation draft pick after the first round. It was nice and easy. The current rules are a bit more complicated. Here are compensation rules for teams that lose a qualified free agent:      

Former team	Contract size	Compensation 2027 draft pick
Received revenue sharing	Less than $50 million	Pick after competitive balance round B (before third round)
Received revenue sharing	$50 million or more	Pick after first round
Paid competitive balance tax	N/A	Pick after fourth round
All other teams	N/A	Pick after competitive balance round B (before third round)

The Athletics, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, and Twins received revenue sharing this season, so the first two scenarios apply to them. The Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies, Red Sox, and Yankees will pay competitive balance tax (CBT), so they're in the third scenario. The Angels, Astros, Giants, Nationals, Rangers, and White Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid CBT. They're in the fourth bucket.

Now here are the penalties for signing a qualified free agent: 

Signing team	2026 draft pick forfeited	2027 international bonus money forfeited
Paid CBT	Second- and fifth-highest	$1 million
Received revenue sharing	Third-highest	none
All other teams	Second-highest	$500,000

The Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies, Red Sox, and Yankees will pay CBT and are in the first group. The Athletics, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, and Twins received revenue sharing and are in the second group. The Angels, Astros, Giants, Nationals, Rangers, and White Sox are the third group. Got it? Good.

Thirteen players received the QO last offseason: Trent Grisham, Shota Imanaga, Gleyber Torres, and Brandon Woodruff accepted the QO; Zac Gallen, Michael King, and Kyle Schwarber declined but signed new contracts to remain with their teams; Bo Bichette, Dylan Cease, Edwin Díaz, Kyle Tucker, Ranger Suárez, and Framber Valdez rejected the QO and signed with new teams, giving their former clubs compensatory draft picks. Teams do not gain or lose draft picks for re-signing their own qualified free agent.

Not eligible to receive the QO

Players are eligible for the QO as long as they spent the entire 2026 season with one team and did not receive the QO previously. That means several high-profile free agents are not eligible for the QO this offseason. Here are the notables:

CHANGED TEAMS
Luis Arraez
Kevin Gausman (also received QO previously)
Casey Mize
Freddy Peralta
Tarik Skubal
Daulton Varsho

PREVIOUSLY RECEIVED QO
Bo Bichette (opt out)
Sonny Gray (mutual option)
Michael King (opt out) 
Nick Martinez

The Tigers traded Skubal, the reigning two-time AL Cy Young winner, to the Dodgers for a three-prospect package at the deadline. MLB Pipeline currently ranks those players as Detroit's No. 1 (Zyhir Hope), No. 3 (River Ryan), and No. 9 (Brady Smith) prospects. That's a much better haul than the compensation draft pick the Tigers would have received had they kept Skubal all year and made him the QO. Anyway, these free agents are among those not eligible for the QO this offseason.

Locks to receive the QO

This is not the best free agent class and, as a result, I count only two stone-cold locks to receive a QO: Randy Arozarena (Mariners) and Seiya Suzuki (Cubs). The Mariners and Cubs would be thrilled if Arozarena and Seiya accepted the QO and returned next season on one-year contracts that aren't too much of a raise. Arozarena made $15.65 million this year. Suzuki earned $18 million. The jump to $23.15 million isn't big enough to shy away from the QO, plus these are really good players. Arozarena and Suzuki will receive the QO and decline it.

Likely to receive the QO

Although Arozarena and Suzuki are the only locks to get the QO, in my opinion, there are three other free agents-to-be who seem like pretty good bets to receive it. Here are those three players:

Ryan Jeffers, Twins: Jeffers will be the best catcher to hit the open market since Willson Contreras four years ago. He missed time with a hamate injury this year and his defense isn't great, plus he'll turn 30 next June. Those seem like nitpicks compared to the offense he brings to the table at the catcher position. The only reason I don't think Jeffers is a lock to get the QO is the fact that the Twins have shaved roughly $50 million off their payroll the last four years. They might get thrifty.

Brandon Lowe, Pirates: Pittsburgh knocked it out of the park with the Mike Burrows-for-Lowe-and-Mason Montgomery three-team trade with the Astros and Rays. Montgomery is a bullpen ace and Lowe slugged 35 home runs, the most by a Pirate since Josh Bell hit 37 in 2019. Lowe's age (32), poor contact rates, and history of poor defense (though not in 2026) create collapse risk. Also, the Pirates run a bottom 10 payroll every season. I expect Lowe to get the QO. I just wouldn't be surprised if the Pirates decide not to risk him taking it, thereby soaking up 20% or so of their 2027 payroll.

Trevor Rogers, Orioles: Rogers, 29 in November, was a bright spot in an otherwise lost season for the O's. He stayed healthy and threw a career-high 169 ⅔ innings, and pitched exceptionally well after June 1: 2.90 ERA with under-the-hood numbers to match (2.89 FIP and 3.10 expected ERA). Rogers might be the second-best free agent starter behind Skubal given his success the last two years and (more importantly) analytically friendly arsenal. During the president of baseball operations Mike Elias era, the Orioles haven't always done the most sensible thing when it comes to spending money. I think it's 99% certain the O's will give Rogers the QO, but 99% is not 100%.

On the bubble

My hunch is teams will be conservative with their QO decisions this offseason because a new CBA is coming, and no one knows what the game's economic landscape will look like next year. Will there be a salary cap? More punitive CBT penalties? I would expect teams to err on the side of caution when it comes to potentially committing $23.15 million to one player. Even a good player they may want back, but not necessarily at $23.15 million in 2027. Here are three borderline QO cases:

David Bednar, Yankees: Bednar has proven he can close games in New York, which is not nothing, but he did just turn 32, and the $23.15 million QO would make him the highest-paid reliever in baseball. I think the Yankees want to bring Bednar back next season. Enough to risk him accepting the QO? When the potential reward is a dinky draft pick after the fourth round given their CBT status? That I'm not sold on. A multi-year contract at a lower annual salary is the much more likely path to Bednar returning to the Yankees.

Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees: Even in a down year, Chisholm was a 3.5-WAR player thanks to the breadth of his skill set. He hit 19 homers, he stole 41 bases, and he was fourth among second basemen with +13 outs above average. The all-around game and the fact that Chisholm will play the entire 2027 season at age 29 would seem to make him a slam dunk QO candidate. My sense is the Yankees won't commit any significant payroll to next season without first seeing what the new CBA brings, which is exactly what they did before the last lockout. I think the Yankees value the payroll flexibility (i.e. the certainty that Chisholm won't take the QO) more than the post-fourth round compensation pick they would receive if he signed elsewhere.

Adrian Morejon, Padres: Morejon will be an interesting test case for San Diego's new ownership. He is outstanding, one of the five or six best relievers in baseball, and he'll play the entire 2027 season at age 28. The QO would make Morejon the highest-paid reliever in the game, but only if he takes it, and his age and effectiveness would seem to make that unlikely. Do the Padres roll the dice and give Morejon the QO, and risk sinking $23.15 million into a (great) setup man, or not bother because they're only in line to receive a draft pick after the fourth round if he leaves? Díaz, Josh Hader (from the Padres), and Raisel Iglesias are the only relievers to get the QO in the last seven years. Is Morejon in that class?