Seoul fears shifting US goalposts could make OPCON transfer ‘impossible’

As South Korea and the US clash over the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON), Seoul’s goal of regaining command authority by 2028 faces growing uncertainty.

 Gen. Xavier Brunson, the commander of US Forces Korea, addressed the transfer in the context of new developments in the security environment, such as the growing military threat that North Korea poses, and emphasized the importance of securing military capabilities to meet a shifting security environment. 

“None of us are also able to say conditions haven’t changed,” Brunson said during the second annual Indo-Pacific Summit, hosted by the Washington-based Gold Institute for International Strategy, on Wednesday.

 “A cursory glance [at] a newspaper would tell you that the conditions have most assuredly changed. This week, we just had an additional volley of missiles fired from North Korea,” he went on.

“Because the conditions have changed, because we’ve changed our plan. We have new standards which we have to uphold,” he said, citing various military threats such as North Korea’s recent missile launches.

 Brunson appears to be asserting that Korea must acquire military capabilities that go beyond the requirements previously agreed upon with the US to ensure it can meet the conditions for OPCON transfer amid an evolving security environment.

 During a Strategic Landpower Dialogue hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Monday, Brunson also stated that a transfer that takes place before Korea has adequate military capabilities could impede defense capabilities.

 South Korea’s Defense Ministry has expressed concern over Brunson’s remarks and pushed back against his assessment.

 “Brunson is approaching the issue from a military level, but we also have concerns about the overall impact on the alliance and are clearly relaying our opinion on the subject,” Defense Minister Kang Shin-chul said, stating that protests have been relayed to the US.

 Kang’s remarks were made during a National Assembly Legislation and Judiciary Committee audit of the military courts on Thursday.

 “Speaking in a personal capacity, I think that if the goalposts keep moving, wartime operational control can never be transferred,” Defense Ministry spokesperson Chung Bin-na said in response to a question raised during a regular briefing that day on whether the US had added more conditions to the OPCON transfer.

 “South Korea and the US have mutually agreed-upon conditions. Over the past 20 years, our military has strived to meet those conditions. The official position of the ministry is that Seoul and Washington are working closely under the conditions-based transition plan,” she said. 

 The ministry’s remarks suggest that the criteria for OPCON transfer, jointly agreed upon by South Korea and the US, should remain unchanged.

 “If we stick to the conditions the two sides agreed on in 2015, South Korea has already met them,” said a former senior national security official who requested anonymity. “The US keeps adding new requirements, and many within the Defense Ministry are frustrated that the goalposts keep moving.”

 The US has reportedly added detailed conditions regarding the South Korean military’s surveillance, reconnaissance and strike capabilities. It has also cited changes in the security environment to reassess conditions that had been met the previous year as not satisfying requirements.

 The Defense Ministry took the unusual step of strongly refuting Brunson’s remarks through Chung, who said she spoke in a “personal capacity.” Seoul now must address the obstacle posed by Brunson before the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM), attended by the top defense officials of South Korea and the US and scheduled for the end of the year.

 The two countries are currently evaluating full operational capability (FOC), which is the second stage of the three-stage process to assess whether the Korean military will be capable of leading the ROK-US Combined Forces Command following the OPCON transfer.

 The first stage of the process, which has been completed, is the evaluation of initial operational capability, and the third stage is the evaluation and verification of full mission capability (FMC).

 The Korean government has been pursuing a plan to complete the second stage this year, present the results at the upcoming SCM, and have the defense ministers of both countries recommend a target year for OPCON transfer to their respective presidents.

 However, Brunson’s latest remarks are likely to complicate Seoul’s plan.

 “If we are to regain OPCON during President Lee Jae Myung’s term, we need to set the target year for the transfer as 2028 — before Trump leaves office — at the SCM,” said Cho Yong-geun, who formerly oversaw North Korea policy at the Ministry of National Defense. 

“The first step toward this is the FOC verification, which will be assessed by Brunson. If Brunson slams the brakes, it will be difficult to advance to the next step,” he said. 

 “Not only is Brunson moving the goalposts, but he is also attempting to get rid of them altogether,” said Moon Jang-nyeol, a former professor at Korea National Defense University, at a debate on OPCON hosted by the Rhee Yeung-hui Foundation, the Korea Peace Network, and the Hankyoreh Foundation for Reunification and Culture.

 South Korea and the US have been pursuing a conditions-based OPCON transfer since 2015, when Park Geun-hye was president. The three conditions agreed upon by the two parties are as follows: the South Korean military must be capable of leading combined operations, respond to North Korean nuclear and missile threats, and ensure that the security of the environment around the peninsula is stable enough for a smooth OPCON handover.  

 If it proves impossible for military authorities to reach a consensus, the two countries may find it necessary to adopt a top-down approach in which defense ministers or presidents make a political call.

 Kang and his American counterpart, Pete Hegseth, may hold discussions during the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting, which will be held in the Philippines at the end of October, while the leaders of both countries could engage in consultations on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit scheduled for November 18-19 in Shenzhen, China.

 By Kwon Hyuk-chul, staff reporter; Kim Won-chul, Washington correspondent