Best bets for LSU-Texas: Will points be hard to come by in Baton Rouge?

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  Pamela MaldonadoNov 11, 2026, 07:00 AM ET

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  Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.

Texas keeps collecting ranked wins. LSU could use one just to stay ranked. The Longhorns head to Baton Rouge with four wins against the initial CFP top 25, two more than anybody else.

Meanwhile, LSU has lost five straight games against ranked opponents and just watched Alabama take over its stadium in the second half in Week 10. Now comes Arch Manning, a Texas defense that makes touchdowns hard to come by and another Saturday night in Death Valley. The potential for a three-loss team to make the playoff is live, leaving LSU with no room for error and Texas fighting to avoid finding out what a third loss could mean.

Here's how the matchup could work and where I see a betting angle.

Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

No. 7 Texas Longhorns at No. 14 LSU Tigers -4
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Records: Texas 7-2, 4-0 vs. AP Top 25; LSU 6-3, 2-2 vs. AP Top 25
Money line: Texas (+150); LSU (-180)
Over/Under: 46.5 (O-105, U-115)

Can Manning give Texas enough good without the bad?

Saturday night in Death Valley ... yeah, that's a lot. But I can't say Texas falls apart on the road when it already won at Tennessee and Missouri. My concern is what happens if Texas can't run the ball and Manning has to keep the offense functional and out of trouble.

That's where LSU can make this ugly. Stop the early runs, force third-and-long and make Manning throw when everybody knows he's throwing. His completion percentage drops from 70% with a clean pocket to 53% under pressure. He can make the ridiculous throw, then make a decision that leaves you wondering what he actually saw. That's always my concern with asking him to carry the offense.

Tigers QB Sam Leavitt has been more dependable. He can work underneath, get outside the pocket and pick up yards himself. Texas has to account for his legs while keeping WR Jackson Harris from getting behind the defense. I'd want Texas getting pressure with its defensive front because sending extra rushers hasn't rattled Leavitt much.

The case for Texas: Manning just played one of his best games at Missouri. He obviously can hit deep while having Ryan Wingo and potentially Cam Coleman back in the mix. Manning excels off of play-action, so Texas should give him those opportunities early. Don't wait until third down and then give LSU the window to come after him.

The Longhorns' defense can take control. Contain Leavitt, tackle the short stuff and make the Tigers keep earning first downs. Then Manning might need only a couple of those big throws.

I can make a case for LSU. I can make a case for Texas. But Leavitt is less messy when a play gets messy, plus he has had 19 passes dropped, which is second most in the SEC. And against this Texas secondary, LSU needs those catches. If those hit, that's a new wrinkle.

However, Texas is one of those teams that leaves you wondering: "So are they actually good?" Therefore, I don't have a strong opinion on the side. Manning is volatile. That includes the possibility that he hits the throws that beat you.

Prediction: UNDER 46.5

Getting downfield and getting into the end zone are two different things. LSU just put up 457 total yards against Alabama and scored only 13 points. Four failed fourth downs and two turnovers killed the Tigers' possessions.

I'm not counting on Texas getting all those same breaks, but its red zone defense gives LSU another reason to have trouble finishing; Texas has allowed touchdowns on just 39% of opponents' trips to the red zone. LSU's ability to move the ball doesn't automatically mean it finishes those drives, especially when the field gets shorter and Texas has less space to defend.

And I don't quite trust the Longhorns' offense to do its share. LSU has forced opponents into an average of 8.41 yards to go on third down. That takes away the easy underneath completion unless somebody breaks a tackle. Manning needs time for routes to develop, and protection has already been a problem. He has been sacked 27 times with nine coming in his two true road games.

Texas' best answer might be taking shots earlier in the possession, but that asks a few big throws to carry the scoring. LSU has the more consistent offense, yet Texas can make it settle near the goal line. Neither team has an easy path to touchdowns.