2026 College Football Playoff bracket projection: SEC poised to land five teams -- or more -- into field
Texas holds the No. 1 seed thanks to its marquee wins, while a surging Florida squad and a loaded SEC are ready to dominate the bracket
• 5 min read
If you hate the SEC, you may want to close your eyes for a few paragraphs.
Each week I do these College Football Playoff bracket projections, and a popular complaint is that too many SEC schools are in the field.
If you feel this way, I've got bad news: This could be a banner year for SEC teams included in the CFP.
A year ago, the SEC put a record five teams into the field – Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. The conventional wisdom headed into this 2026 season was that number would go down as the SEC moved to a nine-game conference slate.
That may prove true as conference play ramps up, but a quarter of the way through the season, the SEC is well positioned to send five or more teams to the field. A couple of preseason playoff favorites (Oklahoma, Texas A&M) have dropped out of the race, but new contenders -- like Florida and Mississippi State -- have emerged in their place.
Texas, Alabama and Georgia have three of the highest odds to make the playoff in the country. Florida, Ole Miss and LSU look like bona fide contenders, and then you have dark horse candidates like Mississippi State and Tennessee. The CFP Selection Committee incorporating a new strength-of-conference metric should only help the SEC's case come December, too.
Is six teams possible? It'd be a stretch, as four or five teams feels much more likely. But it's not an impossibility, which speaks to the SEC's strength as the calendar turns to October.
No. 1 Texas 4-0 (SEC champion)
As I wrote over the weekend, something feels a bit ... off about this Texas team. Arch Manning hasn't impressed in recent weeks, players have committed some truly dumb penalties in key moments, and the off-field vibes have been bad. But the Longhorns are still undefeated and have the best resume in the country with wins over Ohio State and Tennessee. It may feel like a loss is looming around the corner, but until it happens, Texas is your No. 1 seed. Previous: 1
No. 2 Ohio State 3-1 (Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes have as good an argument as any team as the most talented team in the country. The loss to Texas, while disappointing given the late collapse, was understandable. Now, Ohio State needs to navigate a challenging Big Ten schedule relatively unscathed to stay atop these rankings. Ohio State still has Iowa, Indiana, USC, Oregon and Michigan left on the schedule. It can afford another loss, but any more than one and it might get bumpy down the stretch. Previous: 2
No. 3 Miami 4-0 (ACC champion)
The Hurricanes have been utterly dominant a quarter of the way through the 2026 season. As my colleague Brandon Marcello pointed out earlier this week, Miami quarterback Darian Mensah is the only quarterback in the last 30 years to have more touchdowns (14) than incompletions (12) through four games. Miami has looked unstoppable so far, though its next two games (at Clemson, Florida State) may be slightly more challenging. Previous: 3
No. 4 Georgia 4-0
The Bulldogs are the most impressive team in the SEC so far. I've been very tempted to flip Georgia and Texas – the Bulldogs were my preseason pick to win the conference, too – but the Longhorns' resume gives them the edge so far. Georgia hasn't played great competition so far but has been dominant in its wins. What the Bulldogs did to Oklahoma and quarterback John Mateer should scare the rest of the conference. Previous: 5
No. 5 Notre Dame 4-0
It's hard to get particularly fired up about Notre Dame beating up on bad competition. Perhaps UNC will give the Fighting Irish a tougher test than Purdue last week, but an Oct. 17 trip to BYU is where we'll learn a lot more about what this team is really made of. Previous: 6
No. 6 Indiana 4-0
The Hoosiers are very fortunate to have escaped with a win over Northwestern. Curt Cignetti deserves the benefit of the doubt, but this team feels a step or two below the one that ran through the Big Ten a season ago on the way to an undefeated title season. Indiana should handle business the next two weeks before an Oct. 17 showdown against Ohio State. Previous: 7
No. 7 Alabama 4-0
Alabama's commitment to Keelon Russell rather than pursuing a transfer quarterback continues to look better and better. The Crimson Tide blew out South Carolina last weekend and look to be in a good rhythm headed into a tough road game at Mississippi State this weekend. I can't wait to watch Russell versus Kamario Taylor. Previous: 9
No. 8 Florida 4-0
The Gators loudly announced they are for real with a convincing win over Ole Miss. Jon Sumrall's impact in just a quarter of his first season has been remarkable. There's little time to celebrate, though, with a road trip to Missouri up next. Previous: NR
No. 9 Texas Tech 4-0 (Big 12 champion)
I couldn't blame anyone for subbing BYU in at this spot instead of Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have looked shaky on offense but still have the best Big 12 win over Houston. Texas Tech may look a little wobbly, but until it slips up, it is still the pick to win the Big 12. Previous: 8
No. 10 Iowa 4-0
Welcome to the party, Iowa. The Hawkeyes' stunning last-second win over Michigan puts them into this week's field. If Iowa can beat Ohio State this weekend (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS), the Hawkeyes will have a terrific chance of making the playoff. If Iowa loses, the odds drop, but there is still a path to an 11-1 record with a very manageable schedule the rest of the way. There won't be many marquee wins within that record, but would the committee leave out an 11-1 Big Ten team? Previous: NR
No. 11 Ole Miss 3-1
The Rebels take a big tumble after a 52-28 road loss to Florida. Ole Miss still has two quality wins – LSU and Louisville – and has multiple opportunities to add to that number with the remainder of its schedule. Games against Texas (Oct. 24) and Georgia (Nov. 7) loom large. Previous: 4
No. 12 Boise State 3-1
Boise State is still the pick to emerge as the Group of Six's automatic bid. The Broncos easily handled Western Michigan on the road, giving them another quality win. Previous: 12
Just missed the cut: LSU, BYU, Oregon, Utah and Mississippi State
First round
Dec. 18-19 at higher seeds
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Indiana
No. 10 Iowa at No. 7 Alabama
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Florida
Quarterfinal matchups
Dec. 30 in Glendale, Ariz., Jan. 1 in Atlanta, Arlington, Texas, and Pasadena, Calif.
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 8 Florida/No. 9 Texas Tech winner
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Alabama/No. 10 Iowa winner
No. 3 Miami vs. No. 6 Indiana/No. 11 Ole Miss winner
No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 5 Notre Dame/No. 12 Boise State winner
Semifinal matchups
Jan. 14 in Miami and Jan. 15 in New Orleans
No. 1 Texas/No. 8 Florida/No. 9 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia/No. 5 Notre Dame/No. 12 Boise State winner
No. 2 Ohio State/No. 7 Alabama/No. 10 Iowa winner vs. No. 3 Miami/No. 6 Indiana/No. 11 Ole Miss winner
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