Ranking the final four teams

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  David SchoenfieldOct 11, 2026, 07:00 AM ET

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  • Covers MLB for ESPN.com
  • Former deputy editor of Page 2
  • Been with ESPN.com since 1995

The first two rounds of the MLB playoffs have been a mix of controversy (non-home runs from Ty France and Anthony Volpe), clutch comebacks against elite closers (Austin Riley's three-run home run off Jhoan Duran, Jackson Chourio's walk-off hit against Mason Miller), and bullpen games gone awry (the White Sox and Guardians combined to throw 368 pitches and walk 15 batters in Game 4 of their series).

Now, with only four teams remaining, we're going to rank how the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians stack up. But in order to do so, let's consider the four themes of this year's postseason.

1. Lack of offense. Even by typical postseason standards, teams are struggling to score, as was widely predicted heading into the postseason given the quality of pitchers on playoff teams. The collective batting line is .210/.293/.338, challenging 2022's average of .211 as the lowest since 2000. This postseason's .632 OPS would beat 2012's .639. The only game in which both teams scored at least four runs -- out of the 24 that have been played -- was that Game 4 walkathon between the White Sox and Guardians.

2. Bullpen arms carry the load. Relievers have pitched over 53% of the innings as managers have combined quick hooks with the starters plus several bullpen-heavy games along the way. Of the 48 individual games started, the starter failed to last four innings in 20 games and pitched more than five innings just 11 times.

3. Defensive plays ... and misplays. The Yankees were the headliner here for their sloppy four-error game in a Game 2 loss to the Rays, but there have been other key miscues; the Padres and Brewers combined for five errors and three unearned runs in Game 2, and the Brewers lost Game 3 on an unearned run.

4. Home runs still rule. Teams that outhomered their opponents have gone 14-4, with six games having an equal number of home runs between the two teams. The Rays beat the Yankees 1-0 in Game 1 thanks to Drew Rasmussen and Jonathan Aranda's home run. Tampa Bay beat Max Fried 4-3 in Game 3 on a home run from Ryan Vilade and a two-run shot from Victor Mesa Jr.

1. Milwaukee Brewers

Offense/power: .250/.340/.348, 3 HR in 4 G

Chourio carried the load in the NLDS, driving in six of the Brewers' 13 runs, and William Contreras homered twice. They will need more from Brice Turang and Christian Yelich. Turang is hitting .169 in 18 career postseason games, with just one home run and three RBIs. Yelich broke a 19-game postseason stretch without an RBI when he singled in a run in Game 3, but he has gone 21 postseason games without a home run since homering in Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS.

We all know the Brewers don't hit a lot of home runs; only the Blue Jays hit fewer in the regular season. The Dodgers outhomered Milwaukee 6-1 in last year's NLCS sweep -- although the Brewers also hit just .118, so they weren't hitting singles, either. But many think Milwaukee has a better offense than last year. It does, although not by much; the Brewers scored 832 runs this year compared with 806 last year. The main difference is basically Jake Bauers' great year, with 26 home runs and a third-place finish in the majors in OBP. If the Brewers aren't hitting home runs, they'll need Bauers to do what he did against the Padres in Game 4, when he went 1-for-1 with three walks.

Bullpen: 0.47 ERA, 16 SO in 19 IP, .169 average allowed

The bullpen was the key in beating the Padres, covering Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1 after their ace went just four innings and then throwing five scoreless innings in the clinching game. The depth here is impressive, and with three left-handers -- DL Hall, Aaron Ashby and JoJo Romero -- the Brewers are stacked to roll out lefty after lefty against Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy and Kyle Tucker. They also have Shane Drohan and Kyle Harrison, primarily starters during the regular season, on the roster, although neither pitched against the Padres.

It will be interesting to see whether Drohan draws a start instead of Dustin May, who didn't look good against San Diego. A bullpen game is another possibility as Ashby, who pitched three innings in Game 4, can go multiple innings. Of course, if that's a Game 4 start, some of that is contingent on how often he's used in prior games.

At the back end, the Brewers have righties Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill. They're not huge strikeout guys, at least by modern standards, but Uribe had a 1.97 ERA and allowed just three home runs in 59⅓ innings, and Megill had a 2.63 and allowed just one home run in 61⅔ innings. It's the best bullpen going right now, although the Brewers will still hope for more length from Misiorowski in his games, making it easier for Pat Murphy to use his pen for more innings in the other games.

Defense

The Brewers are usually an excellent defensive team, especially in the infield. Check out these Statcast range rankings:

Turang: 98th percentile
Joey Ortiz: 98th percentile
Cooper Pratt: 74th percentile

Then, you include Chourio in left field (92nd percentile with a strong arm) and Garrett Mitchell in center (92nd percentile with a strong arm), and the Brewers have plus defenders all over the place. They had that three-error game against the Padres -- Turang booted a grounder, and Pratt made a throwing error -- and then Pratt bounced another throw in Game 3, but for now, let's chalk that up as an outlier performance. This is generally an excellent defensive team.

Final assessment

The Brewers were the best team in the regular season, and there's no reason to change that evaluation after they played a strong series against what had been a red-hot Padres team. Yes, everyone will point to last year's NLCS wipeout, but the Brewers took three of four from the Dodgers in mid-August, so they're not going to be intimidated. Misiorowski looms large. He will have to pitch better than he did against the Padres. There will be little margin for any mistakes, though; he's likely facing Tarik Skubal, in what could be two classic pitchers' duels.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

Offense/power: .203/.264/.391, 8 HR in 4 G

The Dodgers hit only .203 against the Braves in the NLDS but blasted eight home runs; 11 of Los Angeles' 14 runs in the series came via the home run. That is a bit of an aberration from the regular season, when the Dodgers ranked 13th in the majors in percentage of runs scored via the home run.

The good news is that Freeman hit two, after hitting just one home run in his final 66 games of the regular season. Freeman has often thrived in the postseason, most notably with his four home runs in the 2024 World Series, so having Playoff Freddie show up will be huge.

That's especially true because Ohtani doesn't look right. He went 2-for-13 against the Braves with four strikeouts, following up a late-season slump in which he hit .157 in his final 18 games, sandwiched around a stint on the injured list. Dave Roberts moved him down to fifth and fourth in the lineup in the final two games of the NLDS, an acknowledgment that his star is struggling.

One of the inside baseball aspects of this series will be how often Roberts can get Muncy to face right-handers, after hitting three home runs against righties in the NLDS. Ask the Blue Jays how big Muncy's eighth-inning home run in Game 7 last year -- off a right-hander -- was in that contest. Muncy had even splits this season -- .834 OPS against right-handers and .847 against left-handers -- but he hit .157 against southpaws in 2025 and .172 in 2024, so Roberts doesn't always play Muncy in the left-on-left matchups. Against lefty opener Ray Kerr in Game 3 of the NLDS, Roberts started Miguel Rojas at third base. Against Chris Sale in Game 4, Roberts started Enrique Hernandez.

Of course, Hernandez hit a two-run home run in that game, and given his October magic, Roberts will continue to try to get him at-bats against left-handers. Muncy will start against Misiorowski and Logan Henderson, but the middle-inning chess match will be fascinating because if you pull Muncy too early, that could mean Hernandez or Rojas having to face Uribe or Megill later in the game, a matchup you don't want. If the Brewers use Drohan or a lefty opener in one of the middle games, that could mean Muncy coming off the bench as a pinch-hitter.

Bullpen: 2.45 ERA, 12 SO in 14⅔ IP, .160 average allowed

Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto give the Dodgers two starters you feel pretty comfortable about going at least six innings. Yamamoto is 8-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his postseason career, including 6-1 with a 1.42 ERA in 2025 and '26. Because Yamamoto was so good on the road this season -- 1.77 ERA -- he'll probably start Games 2 and 6, lining up for two starts in Milwaukee.

Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, however, looked a little shaky against the Braves. Snell threw 90 pitches while walking five batters in 3⅔ innings. Glasnow also walked five batters and couldn't finish the fifth inning. Those are the games in which Roberts will likely lean heavily on the bullpen.

The big surprise of the NLDS was Edwin Diaz suddenly emerging as the closer and registering two saves. Diaz had a terrible season, battling injuries and posting an 8.68 ERA in 21 games. In one of his final rehab appearances in mid-September, he allowed five runs, but a little mechanical tweak might have done the trick. He finished the regular season with five scoreless outings and then three more against the Braves. Can he be trusted in save situations? In his three NLDS games, he induced five swinging strikes out of 39 pitches, or 12.8% of his pitches. With the Mets in 2024 and 2025, his swinging strike rates were 18.6% and 19.8%. Small sample size, but this series could turn on Diaz's reliability.

The rest of the pen features lefties Tanner Scott and Alex Vesia and hard-throwing righty Edgardo Henriquez. That's the primary circle of trust, but there's plenty of depth here with Justin Wrobleski and Roki Sasaki in the pen after starting most of the season, plus Evan Phillips, Brock Stewart and Jack Dreyer. Milwaukee's pen probably gets the edge due to the questions about Diaz and the Brewers' ability to match up from the left side.

Defense

An underrated aspect of the Dodgers' success, Los Angeles allowed the second-lowest BABIP in the majors this year, so the defense did something right. Center fielder Andy Pages and shortstop Mookie Betts rate as the Dodgers' best defenders via Statcast, both ranking in the top 10% in range at their positions. The Brewers led the majors in groundball percentage, so the Dodgers' infielders will be tested.

The biggest liability is left fielder Teoscar Hernandez, who turns every fly ball into an adventure. In their lone loss in the NLDS, Hernandez misplayed a fairly routine fly ball from Michael Harris II, and it ended up being a triple; the hit had an expected batting average of .160. Harris then scored on a two-out wild pitch, a run that proved to be the difference in a 3-2 win for the Braves. Kyle Tucker's Statcast metrics are actually worse than Hernandez's (5th percentile in range compared with 9th for Hernandez). The Dodgers rarely beat themselves with bad defense, but the corner outfielders are vulnerable.

Final assessment

How do you bet against them? They're the two-time defending champs; they'll have Skubal and Yamamoto going in four of the possible seven games, and they have more power than the Brewers. Ohtani's current struggles make the lineup a lot less scary, though, and the Brewers match up well against the Dodgers with all their left-handed pitching. If Snell and Glasnow had delivered better performances against Atlanta, the Dodgers might seem unbeatable. The Brewers are a patient team -- second in the majors in walks -- and that could help them wear down some of the Dodgers' pitching. In what should be a low-scoring series, it might come down to the bullpens, and the Brewers get the edge there.

3. Tampa Bay Rays

Offense/power: .208/.255/.344, 3 HR in 3 G

The Rays did just enough against the Yankees, and that's a good way to describe their offense. They were 12th in the majors in runs scored in the regular season and 22nd in home runs. Their biggest strength is putting the ball in play, with the lowest strikeout rate in the league. They will play small ball: They were first in sacrifice bunts, first in bunt hits and tied for second in stolen bases. There was a video before one of the games against the Yankees of the Rays practicing their bunting during batting practice.

The lineup is a little deeper now than it was most of the season after acquiring Liam Hicks at the trade deadline and then Victor Mesa Jr. heating up in September when he hit .355/.410/.605. He hit the big two-run homer in the clinching game against the Yankees, and let's say he enjoyed it.

Still, the key guy remains Junior Caminero, who hit .276 with 42 home runs. He went 3-for-10 against the Yankees with two walks. He presents an interesting situation for opposing teams because he can break a game open with a home run, but he also led the majors in grounding into double plays for the second straight season.

Bullpen: 1.69 ERA, 15 SO in 10⅔ IP, .083 average allowed

The Rays ranked 14th in bullpen ERA in the regular season, but that undersells the pen's effectiveness. It ranked fifth in win probability added, and with closer Bryan Baker going 41 for 44 in save opportunities, the Rays were the only team not to lose a game it led going into the ninth inning. Baker closed out all three games against the Yankees, not allowing a hit, while using his fastball/changeup combo with extreme efficiency in throwing just 40 pitches across the three outings.

Lefty Ian Seymour has become a big weapon as well. He started 16 games, so he can easily provide multiple innings. He fanned 158 in 132⅔ innings, proving he has strikeout stuff. He served up 25 home runs, however, so he's not necessarily the lefty that Kevin Cash will turn to with runners on base. That's more likely to be Cam Booser, who had a 1.98 ERA in 41 innings, striking out 45 and walking six. Sidearmer Kevin Kelly held righties to a .182 average.

The biggest change for the Rays from the ALDS is that Griffin Jax had been available as a reliever but presumably moves into the rotation as the fourth starter after Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez (barring a return from Shane McClanahan, who hasn't pitched since Sept. 3 and wasn't on the roster for the ALDS). Cash had a quick hook with Martinez in Game 3, in part because he knew he had Seymour and Jax available for long-relief duties. That kind of move won't be quite as easy in a seven-game series, so expect Cash to use some of his secondary relievers -- Steven Matz, Cole Sulser, Garrett Cleavinger -- at some point. That could be an issue if they're needed in a close game.

Defense

The Dodgers were second in the majors in BABIP allowed at .268 -- behind only the Rays at .261. The Rays ranked second in defensive runs saved (behind only the Cubs). Shortstop Taylor Walls is interesting here. Statcast's outs above average didn't rate him very well, at the 26th percentile and minus-2 runs, while DRS loved him at plus-21 runs saved, tops among all shortstops.

Caminero is the liability at third base and perhaps Jonathan Aranda at first base -- although we again have a big disagreement on Caminero's defense. Statcast ranks Caminero as one of the worst third basemen in the majors -- 1st percentile in range, although with an above-average arm -- while DRS rates him above average. Aranda missed two scoops in the Game 3 win over the Yankees, including what would have been a game-ending double play. That tracks with the regular season, when Statcast rated Aranda 33rd among first basemen in its receiving outs metric.

The outfield is excellent, with speedster Chandler Simpson in left, Cedric Mullins in center and Mesa and Jonny DeLuca in right field all rating well above average. (The Rays do some platooning, so you might see Vilade in right field against a left-hander, with DeLuca in center field and Mesa shifting over to left for Simpson).

Final assessment

The Rays come in at No. 3, but given their opponent, they have the best chance of reaching the World Series. Rasmussen appears locked in, allowing one hit in eight innings against the Yankees after allowing just three runs in four September starts. He's not as big of a name as Yamamoto, Skubal or Misiorowski, but he's pitching at their level. Baker looks like a lockdown closer and is pitching with enormous confidence. Bridging the gap from the starters to Baker will be a key, but they've been doing that all season. The Rays will be big favorites to reach their third World Series in franchise history.

4. Cleveland Guardians

Offense/power: .213/.330/.350, 3 HR in 5 G

The Guardians didn't do much in the first two games against the White Sox, getting shut out on three hits in the opener and then getting four hits in the second game. Then, the offense awakened with back-to-back nine-run games ... or was it simply bad Chicago pitching? The Guardians drew 10 walks in Game 3 and seven more in Game 4 to get to Game 5.

The problem against the Rays: Tampa Bay had the lowest walk rate in the majors. That means the Guardians will have to hit home runs at some point. The good sign there is maybe Jose Ramirez is getting hot at the right time. Ramirez had a rough season, struggling early, fracturing his hamate bone, and then hitting with no power after his return (.229, two home runs in 53 games). At 34, it was fair to ask if his best days are behind him. Then, in Game 3 against the White Sox, he went 2-for-4 with a double, triple, two runs and two RBIs, although the triple was really just a softly hit fly ball down the left-field line. In Game 4, he went 2-for-5 with a home run, two runs and three RBIs. The home run came against a 99.9 mph fastball, the fastest pitch he has hit for a home run. He then hit the lowest pitch he has hit for a home run in Game 5.

Aside from Ramirez, the potential power sources are rookies Travis Bazzana and Chase DeLauter, plus trade acquisitions Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe. Angel Martinez has some pop, hitting 18 home runs. Steven Kwan reached base a lot in the second half (.443 OBP), so he'll have to continue that. With Kwan doing his thing and the deeper lineup after the trade deadline, the Guardians were a much better offensive team in August and September.

Bullpen: 2.67 ERA, 39 SO in 27 IP

The Guardians will start the series at a disadvantage, unable to start Parker Messick or Gavin Williams in Game 1 because they started Games 4 and 5 of the ALDS (and Williams also closed out Game 4 with 18 pitches in relief). That's not the end of the world, as Messick can still start Game 2 on four days' rest, with Williams going in Game 3. If the series goes seven games, Stephen Vogt can still get four starts from his top two starters.

Vogt used an opener in Game 3 against the White Sox, starting Daniel Espino, but he lasted just five batters and got only two outs before Vogt went to Foster Griffin. Vogt might play it more conventionally, at least in Game 1, although Griffin could still have a quick hook after posting a 5.19 ERA in nine starts with Cleveland after coming over from the Nationals at the trade deadline.

The Guardians ranked sixth in bullpen ERA in the regular season, although the consensus is the pen isn't quite as dominant as some of the recent Cleveland playoff teams, with the exception of closer Cade Smith, who had a 1.95 ERA, 41 saves and held batters to a .183 average. Smith had seven saves of four outs in the regular season, plus five other appearances of five or six outs, but Vogt showed against the White Sox that he'll use Smith for two-inning outings if necessary, although when he did it in back-to-back outings in Games 3 and 4, Smith's velocity dropped in the second inning of Game 4, and Williams had to be called upon.

The Guardians have two good lefties in Erik Sabrowski and Tim Herrin, although both can be wild at times. Sabrowski is the better choice to get through a left-right-left-right type of order as he held righties to a .135 average (and .194 to lefties). Hunter Gaddis and Shawn Armstrong will be tasked with getting through the Yandy Diaz-Junior Caminero part of the lineup at some point.

The biggest question is how aggressive Vogt will be going to the pen. He can't expect a lot of runs from his offense, but this also isn't the deepest bullpen of the remaining teams. More than any of the other three teams, he will need some length from his starters, especially Messick and Williams.

Defense

As always, the Guardians are a solid defensive team. Kwan has split his time between left field, where he's the best in the business, and center field, where he's also plus. Brayan Rocchio is one of the top shortstops in the league, ranking in the 97th percentile in range, although his arm is only average. Catcher Patrick Bailey won Gold Gloves with the Giants in 2024 and 2025 and threw out 32% of basestealers with the Guardians, so one of the key matchups will be Tampa Bay's baserunners against Bailey. Rookie Angel Genao was called up in August and has been used as a defensive replacement for Bazzana at second base.

Assessment

Are the Guardians favored? No. Can they pull off the upset? Sure. They enter the series on the high of rallying from the 2-0 deficit against the White Sox. Of course, the Rays are a better team, with much better pitching than the White Sox. But Messick and Williams can be a dynamic duo: Messick had a 2.56 ERA, and Williams led the AL in strikeouts. If the Guardians can get to Game 6, with Messick and Williams then lined up to start, they can steal this series.