NFL overreactions or reality? Sorting fact from fiction after the first quarter of the 2026 season

There is no longer an official one-quarter mark of the NFL season now that the league operates with a 17-game schedule, but with four games in the books, the campaign is about 25% complete. That is a large enough sample size to begin to draw conclusions about teams, players and coaches, even if some of those takeaways will age poorly over the remaining three-fourths of the year.

In some cases, it is not too early to write the book on a team's season. For instance, the five winless teams can effectively wave goodbye to their postseason hopes because it will be nearly impossible to climb out of the deep trenches they dug themselves into over the season's first month. Even the Houston Texans, who entered the year as Super Bowl hopefuls, look like an afterthought in the race to the playoffs.

The rest of the campaign will prove that some four-game starts are nothing more than hot streaks and cold stretches. But for now, all we can run with is what we have seen in a month's worth of action.

Let's separate overreactions from reality as the NFL's regular season reaches its quarter-way mark.

The Chiefs are back

Verdict: Reality

The Kenneth Walker III signing might have been the most impactful free agency move of the offseason. The Kansas City Chiefs are a completely different beast in 2026 than they were a year ago, and it all stems from the reintroduction of a prolific rushing attack. The $14.35 million the Chiefs are paying the reigning Super Bowl MVP suddenly looks like a steal, because Walker leads the NFL in rushing through four games with his 537 yards. That is 116 more than the second-most-prolific ballcarrier and last year's rushing title winner, James Cook.

Because the Chiefs boast the No. 3 rushing attack in the league, Patrick Mahomes does not have to shoulder an immense load with his arm as he did in years past. This not only helps him ease back into action following his ACL tear, but it should also aid in his career longevity. The passing offense is so much more impactful than it was one year ago, it was the only thing that worked. Just look at Travis Kelce's resurgence this season as a top-tier receiving tight end.

Kansas City needs help at wide receiver, but even with the depth concerns there, it is one of three undefeated teams and has the look of the same unstoppable force that won three Super Bowls in five years and went to two others since 2019.

Drake Maye was a one-hit wonder

Verdict: Overreaction

There was no more disappointing individual player in the first three weeks of the season than Drake Maye. Last year's MVP runner-up was the second-worst quarterback in the NFL by passer rating through three games. That is an unfathomable fall from grace. Even after a bounce-back performance on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills, Maye leads the league in interceptions with seven and fumbles with five. His mistakes cost the New England Patriots mightily in their two early-season losses.

Week 4 was a reminder not to fall victim to the moment, though, and to recognize that this is the same player who orchestrated a 10-win turnaround and a trip to the Super Bowl a season ago. Maye showed tremendous growth in the Patriots' 29-26 upset of the Bills, especially under duress. According to ESPN Insights, Maye completed 50% of his passes for 76 yards and a touchdown across a career-high 21 pressures against Buffalo. That is in contrast to the 42% completion rate, zero touchdowns and three interceptions under pressure in Weeks 1-3.

A lot of Maye's struggles to open the year may have come from between the ears. His disastrous Super Bowl performance seemed to linger as he walked into the same kinds of trouble in the first three games of 2026. Losing his top target, A.J. Brown, to a high ankle sprain did not help. Sunday's win was the kind of confidence-building moment that could pull Maye out of his slump for good, and Brown should be back before long. A return to MVP-caliber play in the weeks to come is not out of the question.

Ben Johnson is the next superstar coach

Verdict: Reality

The Chicago Bears are 3-1, and each of their victories came with a different starting quarterback. Caleb Williams won the season opener, Case Keenum delivered a surprising win over the Eagles after Williams went down with a hamstring strain in Week 2 and Tyson Bagent stepped in on Sunday to deliver a triumph over the New York Jets. This says something about the strength of the Bears' quarterback room, but it says even more about coach Ben Johnson and his offensive prowess.

Johnson was already renowned as a rising offensive mastermind heading into the year. His work as the Detroit Lions' offensive coordinator was evidence enough, and a prolific debut season with the Bears backed it up. This is his most dazzling effort yet, though. The ability to put second- and third-string quarterbacks in positions to not just win games but also excel in the process says everything about Johnson's stardom.

Before the season, Johnson said that he wanted to field the highest-scoring offense in NFL history. That looked like a legitimate possibility after Week 1. It will not happen now, but when Williams returns to the lineup, there is a real chance Chicago will dominate the league as the most unstoppable unit in football.

The Rams' offseason was fool's gold

Verdict: Overreaction

Trading for Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie, signing Jaylen Watson and pulling Aaron Donald out of retirement made the Los Angeles Rams the winners of the offseason. No team generated more positive buzz this spring and summer, and for good reason. The additions to the defense included two future Hall of Famers and two impact cornerbacks, and that pairs with an offense that features the reigning MVP in Matthew Stafford, a superstar wide receiver in Puka Nacua, another potential Hall of Famer in Davante Adams and other high-impact standouts.

But then the season arrived, and the Rams laid an egg in Australia with a 27-7 divisional loss to the San Francisco 49ers. They blew a 16-0 lead to the Denver Broncos two weeks later, dropping to 1-2. And it took a miraculous late-fourth-quarter comeback to get past the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4. Those are not the kinds of results expected of a super team.

It is still too early for major concern, though. Garrett has not played since Week 1 and was not at full strength in his lone outing. Donald is nursing a back issue. The offense has not had time to gel because of Nacua's early absence. Once these superstars get onto the field together at the same time, the Rams should hit their stride. Los Angeles' schedule is incredibly manageable outside of NFC West play, so the wins should pile up even if it takes longer than anticipated for the full system to fire on all cylinders.

The Dolphins are destined for 0-17

Verdict: Reality

It is extremely difficult to go an entire season without winning a single game, especially now that the campaign is 17 games long. No team has gone winless since the NFL expanded its schedule in 2021, and before that, the Cleveland Browns were the last 0-16 squad all the way back in 2017. There will eventually be a team that drops all 17 games, however, and this year's Miami Dolphins are the strongest candidate to date.

The Dolphins already held the worst roster in the league, and that was before they lost De'Von Achane for the season. The star running back tore his ACL in Week 3, which stripped Miami of its best player and the only Pro Bowler in town. Without Achane, the franchise is incredibly young and inexperienced and rid of high-upside talent.

Miami showed some fight defensively in Week 4 when it held the Minnesota Vikings out of the end zone, but if the Dolphins cannot win a game in which they hold the opposing team to five field goals, then who will they beat? The also-winless Los Angeles Chargers and reeling Green Bay Packers present the two best opportunities, and there are two matchups with the Jets up ahead. But the Dolphins could be underdogs in each of those games, and the rest of the schedule is grueling.

Bryce Young will win the passing title

Verdict: Overreaction

For the first two years (and even into the third season) of Bryce Young's career, the former No. 1 overall pick looked destined to finish his rookie contract as a bust. Then he settled into Dave Canales' Carolina Panthers offense. Young turned a corner midway through the 2025 season and is on a tear to begin his fourth year as a pro. He already has three games with a passer rating of at least 110 this season compared to the five he had in the previous three years combined. And most impressively, Young leads all quarterbacks with 1,268 passing yards.

Everything about Young's track record suggests he will cool off. But maybe this is just who he is now. He has the best supporting cast of his career, a coach who clearly knows how to use his talent, loads of confidence and three full years of experience under his belt.

Bryce Young 2026 game log

Game	Comp-Att (%)	Yards	TD	INT
Week 1 vs. Bears	23-37 (62.2)	361	3	1
Week 2 at Falcons	23-36 (63.9)	287	3	0
Week 3 at Browns	26-48 (54.2)	291	1	1
Week 4 vs. Lions	29-41 (70.7)	329	2	0

Even if this proves to be a breakout season for Young -- and by all measures, it certainly seems like it will -- it will be difficult for him to maintain his spot at the top of the passing leaderboard. His two biggest games (361 yards against the Bears and 329 yards against the Lions) came in matchups with questionable defenses. In the case of the explosion against Detroit, Young had the benefit of torching the worst unit in the NFL. The competition for the passing title will be stiff. Jared Goff stands a mere 54 yards back and is better equipped to finish the year with the gaudiest total. Tyler Shough is within 65 yards and leads the NFL in passes as the leader of an air-it-out Kellen Moore offense. Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow are MVP-caliber quarterbacks less than 100 yards back.

The Falcons are the NFC South's best team

Verdict: Reality

Two weeks ago, anyone who predicted the Atlanta Falcons to win their division would have looked foolish. Coming off two embarrassing losses and a 34-3 trouncing against a fellow NFC South squad in the Panthers, Atlanta seemed just as likely to battle for the No. 1 pick as any other winless team. As it turns out, though, the Falcons just needed Michael Penix Jr. to get healthy. Look at this offensive comparison from Weeks 1-2 to Weeks 3-4:

• With Cooper Rush: 16 points, 524 yards, 7 turnovers
• With Michael Penix Jr.: 80 points, 918 yards, 1 turnover

Atlanta's offensive skill position players are as elite as any in the NFL, and now they have a quarterback who can give them the ball. Bijan Robinson is fully unleashed, and Drake London can do his thing again. Kyle Pitts got involved in the receiving scheme again in Week 4, too. There is no defense in this division that can keep all of those weapons in check so long as Penix keeps playing at a serviceable level.

Most impressive is how the defense stepped up in the face of injuries and suspensions. A group of defensive linemen and edge rushers that was supposed to flounder is suddenly about as impactful as they come. Even without Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., the Falcons rank third in pressure rate at 43.6% and feature the NFL's best run defense by a sizable margin with just 48.3 yards allowed per game.

Deshaun Watson is the answer for Cleveland

Verdict: Overreaction

The most Cleveland Browns-ian outcome possible from a surprisingly fruitful season would be for Deshaun Watson to play well enough to command a contract extension, locking the franchise into an unpopular quarterback and costing the team its choice of early first-round prospects in the 2027 draft. Browns fans would gladly welcome the victories, but at what cost?

For now, Cleveland is among the best stories in the NFL. Everyone wrote them and Watson off after a 34-10 drubbing at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars, but since then, they are 3-0 with a surprisingly capable offense. The downtrodden Browns are tied for the AFC North lead through four games. How about that? Hats off to first-year coach Todd Monken for working his magic on this team and getting the absolute most out of Watson. That should not lure the franchise into a false sense of security, though.

Watson is still overpaid. His long-term viability as a starting quarterback in the NFL is still tenuous. The core of this roster is still years younger than him. It is in Cleveland's best interest to target a new franchise quarterback in the draft, regardless of what happens between now and the end of the year. Perhaps Watson could return on a more affordable contract as a bridge to the next signal-caller. His surprisingly strong start to the year might have earned him that opportunity.