Race for 2028 heats up after US midterms firestorm

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump's stunning midterm defeat by the Democrats has upended another US election — the race to replace him in the White House in 2028.

The crushing defeat for the Republicans is particularly stinging for Vice-President JD Vance, who had been the frontrunner but now risks being seen as tied to his lame-duck boss.

But the midterms are a potential launchpad for rising Democratic stars such as Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, whose youthful appeal has already drawn comparisons with former president Barack Obama.

Republicans in turmoil

The MAGA coalition that propelled Trump to power in 2016 and 2024 effectively collapsed in Tuesday's midterms, leaving any presumptive Republican heir with a mountain to climb.

Long seen as the odds-on favourite for the Republican nomination in 2028, Vance is the most obvious victim after hitching his wagon to Trump throughout the midterm campaign, attending rallies in swing states.

The ambitious 42-year-old quickly tried to distance himself from the electoral disaster, blaming it on Trump's unpopular war on Iran in a lengthy post on X on Wednesday.

But voters are likely to reject his attempts to disown Trump.

It is a familiar problem for US vice-presidents. Former Democratic candidate and vice-president Kamala Harris faced a similar problem in 2024 when she said that "there's not a thing that comes to mind" when asked how she would differentiate herself from Joe Biden.

"The bad news for Vance is that sitting vice-presidents seldom win the presidency," James Lindsay of the Council on Foreign Relations said.

Trump's Secretary of State Marco Rubio's name has also been bandied about.

Rubio, 55, has kept a far lower profile during the midterms, but any top official in Trump's administration will struggle to wash their hands of the Iran war.

The Republicans' midterm disaster could, however, boost other possible candidates.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 48, who ran against Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024, has suddenly become very vocal.

He described the Democratic sweep as "the political equivalent of a meteor strike" and pointed out that it was only in his own state that Republicans held them off.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 55, has also left the door open, having run against Trump in 2016 — although his chances may have been harmed by the Democrats' stunning Senate and gubernatorial victories in his state in the midterms.

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Democrats on a high

The Democratic field is crowded, but the midterms have given some likely candidates a boost.

Ossoff's re-election as a Georgia senator has fuelled speculation about a 2028 run by the telegenic politician, who has already gained attention for mocking Trump's relationship with a young staffer.

The 39-year-old has said that he has "zero interest in running for president", but his swiftly declared victory in Georgia — and his victory speech — have bolstered his standing in the party.

Before the midterms, Kamala Harris, 62, had been the favourite for the nomination, but many in the party would prefer someone without a losing track record.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, 53, who was interviewed by Harris to be her running mate in 2024, had a good night on Tuesday as he stormed to re-election in the key battleground state.

Outgoing California Governor Gavin Newsom, 59, is another big name who has repeatedly taken on Trump. In an interview with AFP in September, he predicted that Trump's presidency "as we know it would be over after the midterms".

But Newsom, like Harris, may be seen as more of an old-guard figure in a party that is looking to its rising stars.

A prominent but potentially divisive choice would be left-wing New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who said in September that she was weighing a run, musing about whether a Latina could win in a country that rejected female nominees in 2016 and 2024.

Other possible contenders include former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel, JB Pritzker, the billionaire Illinois governor who set out a lengthy national agenda after winning a third term on Tuesday, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Arizona Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly.