China’s carmakers eye record 12 million overseas sales in 2026 as ‘go global’ plan pays off

Chinese automotive groups have cause to celebrate their go-global strategy amid breakneck export growth in recent years, with deliveries in 2026 expected to beat expectations already buoyed by an international energy shock caused by conflict in the Middle East.

Leading carmakers from BYD to Chery Automobile have doubled down on overseas expansion, with some evolving into powerful contenders in markets such as Europe and Africa, which were once dominated by the likes of Volkswagen.

“A sluggish domestic market has been fuelling carmakers’ efforts to spur exports,” said Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). “The export boom from January to August exceeded our expectations and we saw a hefty sales jump in the European Union and Africa.”

The government-backed industry body recently forecast that overseas Chinese vehicle sales – which comprise passenger cars, buses and lorries – could top 12 million units in 2026, up 44 per cent from last year’s 8.3 million.

The projected figure represents a 20 per cent rise from an earlier estimate of 10 million vehicles by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

In the first eight months of 2026, China’s vehicle deliveries outside the mainland climbed 51 per cent year on year to 7.45 million units, CPCA data showed.

Overseas sales include exports of Chinese-made vehicles and deliveries of Chinese-branded cars made in plants outside the mainland.

“Chinese carmakers have reasons to pop champagne corks as some of them have already evolved into international automotive giants, several years ahead of their schedule,” said Phate Zhang, founder of Shanghai-based industry data ­provider CnEVPost.

“Top players have stunned the global auto sector with their electric vehicles (EVs) as the Middle East conflict [that hiked fuel prices] piqued the interest of consumers in battery-powered cars.”

Chinese-made EV exports shot up 70 per cent from a year ago to 3.46 million units during this year’s first eight months, CPCA said.

BYD, the world’s largest EV builder, posted an 85.7 per cent year-on-year sales surge in the January-to-August period, topping 1.16 million units.

At the start of the year the company targeted a 24 per cent growth rate for its international businesses in 2026.

State-owned Chery said its exports between January and August soared 68.2 per cent to 1.34 million vehicles. The numbers stand in stark contrast to the carmaker’s earlier forecasts, which anticipated selling 1.5 million vehicles abroad in 2026, up 12 per cent on year.

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If Chinese car makers achieved annual overseas sales of 12 million vehicles, it would translate into a nearly 12-fold jump from the 1.08 million units recorded in 2020, according to the CPCA.

China has been the world’s largest vehicle exporter since 2023 when it overtook Japan in terms of overseas auto sales.

Buoyant overseas sales could also cushion against a weak domestic market, which slumped 20 per cent in the first eight months of this year to 11.7 million units.

Chinese carmakers, whose vehicles often sell at higher prices abroad, could enjoy a net margin of 20,000 yuan (US$2,975) per car in overseas markets – four times higher than at home, according to Nick Lai, head of auto research for Asia-Pacific at JPMorgan.

On September 1, Beijing for the first time published guidelines governing Chinese carmakers’ operations abroad, requiring them to refrain from offering steep discounts in overseas markets.

Analysts said a high base this year and a potential reduction in the tax rebate rate – a government incentive to encourage car exports – could slow the growth momentum in 2027.

However, CPCA’s Cui sees it differently. “Chinese carmakers are [entering] various markets where demand for EVs is growing,” he said. “The growth trajectory can be maintained over a long period.”