No general election before 2029, Andy Burnham says

Andy Burnham has said he will not call a snap general election before 2029, after days of speculation that Labour’s revival in the polls could tempt him to call an early contest.

The prime minister was repeatedly questioned on the prospect during a round of broadcast interviews to regional media on Friday.

He initially said he was “not particularly” tempted by the idea of an early election, but later became firmer, saying he would “knock that dead” and he is “not going to do that” because he is focused on getting on with the job.

Asked by ITV Calendar whether the next election would be in 2029, Burnham said: “Well, yes, that’s when the next election will be. All of this speculation on an early election, I can knock that dead.

“You know, people want me, new in office, to be getting on with the job of delivering on the things that we’ve discussed, rather than putting self-serving politics before that, which was what I would be doing if I call an election. I’m not going to do that.”

Talk of an early election rose the last week after polls showed Labour pulling into the lead with support in the low 20s, and the Conservatives and Reform neck-and-neck a few points behind them.

Westminster sources said Downing Street advisers and MPs had been discussing the merits of an early poll but that, even though the right was split, Labour would be at risk of losing its majority and having to form a coalition.

The Guardian revealed on Friday that Ravinder Athwal, the economist who wrote Labour’s 2024 manifesto, is taking on a senior role as an adviser to John Healey to strengthen his team before the budget. This fuelled further speculation that the party’s preparations for a campaign were gathering pace.

Athwal, a Cambridge economics graduate, devised Keir Starmer’s five “missions”, which were meant to shape Labour’s approach to government.

Healey poached Athwal to be his senior special adviser from the business advisory group Flint Global, previously run by Burnham’s chief of staff, the Blair-era cabinet minister James Purnell.

All the parties have begun increasing their preparations for a potential campaign since Burnham replaced Starmer in the summer, in case he decides to take advantage of the bounce in his popularity.

However, the prime minister has repeatedly ruled it out, both before and after taking office. In his regional interviews, he stressed his attention was on the party’s autumn conference, saying a big focus of his speech would be on setting out more details of a new model for the water industry that increases public control.

“As we go into the Labour conference, we will set out more thinking about the change that we need to see in the running of water across the country. But it is clear to me that what we’ve had in the last 30 years is nowhere near good enough and is actually letting the public pay,” he told BBC South.

Leading up to the conference in Liverpool, Labour members have been cheered by Burnham’s takeover which has led to a modest recovery in the party’s popularity.

An MRP poll of more than 8,000 voters reported by the Guardian this week showed a significant shift of left-leaning voters towards Burnham’s Labour. This has encouraged those in the party who are thinking of gambling on an early election while Reform’s ratings are ebbing and while leftwing parties such as the Greens appear to be losing momentum.

Twice as many voters have returned to Labour from the left as from the right since April. The previously unreleased research, including a seat-by-seat MRP model, was conducted by Survation and the progressive activist site 38 Degrees in Burnham’s first month as prime minister.

It also showed progressive voters could push Reform UK into fourth place and put Labour within touching distance of a majority if tactical voting was widespread.

Burnham was beginning to attract a significant number of left-leaning voters back to Labour, motivated by a desire to stop Nigel Farage, the results suggested.