Trump's Iran war is nearing 7 months. Here's why his UN speech matters for oil prices and markets

Trump’s UNGA speech comes as the Iran war nears seven months, with oil prices, Hormuz and global markets in focus.

US President Donald Trump is set to address the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday as his war with Iran approaches the seven-month mark, putting Iran war’s impact on oil prices, shipping routes and global markets firmly in focus.

With Brent crude hovering around $100 a barrel and the Strait of Hormuz still facing disruption, investors will be watching Trump’s comments for any indication of a shift towards diplomacy.

Iran war puts oil markets in focus

The Iran war has disrupted energy flows across the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key concern for global oil markets. Although shipments through the waterway have improved, flows remain below pre-war levels.

Quick answers to key questions

•5

QUESTIONS

Trump's UN speech could influence oil prices by signaling potential shifts towards diplomacy in the US-Iran conflict, which has heightened geopolitical risks and affected global oil supply.

The Strait of Hormuz is vital because it handles about 20% of the world's oil supply, making any disruption there a serious concern for global energy markets.

If shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz improve significantly, it could lead to increased oil supply, potentially lowering prices as market concerns about disruptions ease.

The Iran war amplifies risks for global energy markets by disrupting oil flows, keeping prices volatile, and increasing shipment costs due to geopolitical tensions.

Investors should monitor Trump's meeting with Pezeshkian as it could indicate a shift towards negotiations, influencing expectations for oil supply and market stability.

Brent crude settled at $100.34 a barrel on Monday before rising above $102 in early Tuesday trading as markets weighed the prospect of US-Iran talks.

Trump has said the military campaign is aimed at addressing Iran’s nuclear threat. His administration has also maintained pressure on Tehran through military action, sanctions and restrictions on Iranian oil.

The market reaction has increasingly hinged on whether the conflict moves towards negotiations. Iran and the US have exchanged signals about possible diplomacy, with Trump saying he would be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in New York.

Strait of Hormuz remains critical

The Strait of Hormuz is central to the market outlook because of its role in transporting oil and gas from Gulf producers. Improved traffic in recent days has eased some supply concerns, but any renewed disruption could quickly put upward pressure on crude prices.

Saudi Arabia has also been working to restore alternative export routes after attacks disrupted its East-West pipeline. Reuters reported that the kingdom was seeing a partial recovery in shipments, another factor being monitored by oil traders.

The prospect of greater supplies and diplomatic progress has already affected prices. On Monday, Brent fell 3.4% to $100.34 a barrel as traders assessed the possibility of progress at the UN General Assembly.

Trump’s UN speech and Iran diplomacy

Trump’s appearance at UNGA comes as Qatar and other mediators seek to bridge what Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari described as a “deep deficit of trust” between Washington and Tehran.

“This will end at the negotiating table,” al-Ansari said. “Either we sign a deal now or sign a deal 10 months away. The only difference is the number of dead and destruction that we see.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also said Trump is open to meeting Pezeshkian while both leaders are in New York.

“This is a president that will meet with anybody for the most part, because he believes that engaging with people is important if you’re going to solve problems,” Rubio said on NBC’s “Today” show. “It doesn’t mean you’re going to end up agreeing with them, but it’s important.”

Any movement towards negotiations could influence expectations for oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, a renewed escalation would keep geopolitical risk elevated and could add to volatility in crude markets.

Trump’s other UN meetings

Beyond Iran, Trump is expected to meet leaders and senior officials from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to discuss the war and recent Iran-backed attacks on Saudi Arabia.

He is also scheduled to meet British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez.

Ukraine will also feature in Trump’s diplomatic schedule, with a meeting planned with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the Russia-Ukraine war continues.

The US president is also expected to participate in discussions surrounding a new agreement with Denmark and Greenland that would expand the US military presence in Greenland while keeping the territory under Danish control.

What markets will watch

For investors, the key signals from Trump’s UN appearance are likely to centre on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of negotiations. Oil prices have already shown sensitivity to signs of improving supply and potential US-Iran diplomacy.

With Brent still around the $100 mark, developments at the UN this week could provide the next major signal for energy markets already adjusting to months of disruption from the Iran conflict.

About the Author

Sayantani Biswas is an assistant editor at Livemint with seven years of experience covering geopolitics, foreign policy, international relations and global power dynamics. She reports on Indian and international politics, including elections worldwide, and specialises in historically grounded analysis of contemporary conflicts and state decisions. She joined Mint in 2021, after covering politics at publications including The Telegraph. <br> She holds an MPhil in Comparative Literature from Jadavpur University (2019), with a specialisation in postcolonial Latin American literature. Her research examined economic nationalism through Eduardo Galeano’s Open Veins of Latin America. She also writes on political language, cultural memory and the long shadows of conflict. <br> Biswas grew up in Durgapur, an industrial town in West Bengal shaped by migration, which drew families from across India to the Durgapur Steel Plant. As the only child in a joint family, she spent years listening—almost obsessively—to her grandparents’ testimonies of struggle, fear and loss as they fled Bangladesh during the Partition of 1947. This formative exposure to lived historical memory later converged with her training in Comparative Literature, equipping her to analyse socio-economic structures and their reverberations. <br> Outside the newsroom, she gravitates towards cultural history and critical theory, returning often to texts such as Paulo Freire’s Pedagogy of the Oppressed. As a journalist, she is committed to accuracy, intellectual rigour and fairness, and believes political reporting demands not only clarity and speed, but historical depth, contextual precision, and a disciplined resistance to spectacle.

^{Get Latest real-time updates}

Stay updated with the latest Trending, India, World and US news.

HomeNewsWorldTrump's Iran war is nearing 7 months. Here's why his UN speech matters for oil prices and markets