ARD-Deutschlandtrend survey: Germans unite in frustration over the government

Ahead of October 3, which marks the reunification of West and East Germany in 1990, pollster infratest dimap asked 1303 eligible voters to assess their personal situation. Twenty percent of those identifying as East Germans, but 44% see personal advantages. Only a quarter said reunification had no major impact on them personally.

More than half of West German respondents said reunification had no major impact on their personal lives. The remaining half is split: 19% said reunification had a positive impact, while 18% said it had a negative one.

Germany held three state elections in September, two of them in eastern states. They were seen as a test of nationwide voter sentiment. The results were particularly devastating for the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), the party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

In Saxony-Anhalt and the city-state of Berlin, where it had been in government, the CDU dropped by 10% compared to the previous election and lost its hold on power. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the party even failed to cross the 5% threshold for representation in parliament. This has never happened before in Germany's history.

Merz under pressure: CDU lawmaker on election setbacks

Chancellor Merz wants to remain in office

Merz has long been unpopular and has seen his support fall even further in the aftermath of the elections. The coalition he leads, comprised of the CDU, the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), is unpopular. Only one in 10 respondents in the survey said they were satisfied with the federal government's work and the chancellor's performance, a historic low. Only 40% of CDU supporters say they are still satisfied with Merz.

Far-right AfD in the lead nationwide

The Alternative for Germany (AfD), which the domestic intelligence agency has classified as, in part, far-right extremist, continues to benefit from the voter dissatisfaction with the centrist parties.

If a general election were held now, the CDU/CSU alliance would win only 20% of the vote. That is one of the lowest figures in the party's history and a far cry from the 43.8% it won in the first election after reunification in 1990. The SPD polls at only 13%. This means that the ruling parties together would not even win one-third of the vote and would lose their majority in parliament.

The AfD would remain the strongest political force. It has been polling steadily at 27% nationwide. The environmentalist Greens are up slightly, reaching 16%, while the socialist Left Party has dropped by the same margin, landing at 11%. With this result, it would be a Herculean task to form a majority in the national parliament.

AI, Russia and Donald Trump's policies

The overall situation in Germany gives only one in eight people cause for optimism, while nearly nine in 10 express concern. Voters for the AfD and the Left Party are particularly worried.

Two-thirds of respondents said they're worried that humans could lose control over artificial intelligence, and just as many are worried about the consequences of US President Donald Trump's policies for Germany. Six in 10 expressed concern about climate change, and just over half said they are worried that Russia could attack other countries in Europe.

About one in two respondents fear they will not be able to maintain their standard of living in the future. A similar number are concerned about immigration to Germany.

By far the biggest source of concern for Germans, however, is that political parties cannot find common answers to key political issues.

Why Germany's political center is losing ground

Social reforms must be fair

Germany is a rapidly aging country. Fewer working people must support an ever-increasing number of retirees.

The aging society also strains the health care system. Since 2015, the number of people in need of long-term care has risen from about 2.8 million to about 6.5 million — and the trend continues to rise.

According to the ARD Deutschlandtrend survey, only one in six eligible voters believes that the federal government will succeed inmaking the social security systems sustainable for the future.

Not all respondents said they are willing to dig into their own pockets: Voters who tend to support left-leaning parties would be more likely to accept higher social security contributions than benefit cuts. Among AfD and CDU/CSU voters, the opposite is true.

Three-quarters of respondents view the government's proposed reform measures as contradictory. They complain about an ever-increasing burden, even though the government had promised relief.

What Germans young and old think about the pension system

Sixty-one percent say that cuts should be scaled according to individual financial capacity, even if this would place a heavier burden on some people.

One in two would be more willing to accept cuts if the necessity were explained in a way that made sense. The message to policymakers is clear: reforms require explanation and social balance; otherwise, they lose acceptance.

The welfare state and the health care system are regarded as key achievements in Germany. When asked what works particularly well in Germany compared to other countries, survey respondents most often cited social benefits and medical care. Education, schools, vocational training and universities came in last place.

Energy policy is seen as a problem

High energy prices continue to burden citizens and the German economy. The ongoing crisis in the Persian Gulf is driving oil prices even higher. This is impacting fuel and electricity prices in Germany.

Respondents to the ARD Deutschlandtrend survey found that the government is not doing enough to address high energy prices. Three-quarters of them said the government's efforts are insufficient.

A "Tankrabatt" (fuel discount) has again come into effect on October 1: Through the end of the year, the federal government is reducing the energy tax on gasoline and diesel by about 17 eurocents ($0.19) per liter. A similar discount was already in place from early May through the end of June. That cost the government €3.4 billion.

Some of that money ended up in the pockets of oil companies and gas station operators because they did not pass on the full discount. Experts view the measure critically.

Added to this is the fact that fossil fuels are being made cheaper despite shortages, which is controversial from a climate policy perspective. The new fuel discount has received only a lukewarm reception among the public; half of those surveyed in the ARD Deutschlandtrend poll believe it is the wrong approach.